Wall Street is sailing at highs, the signs of recovery are multiplying both in Europe and in Asia. In the UK, despite Brexit, unemployment is at its lowest. But the G20, as well as Angela Merkel's disappointing visit to Donald Trump, confirmed the profound disagreement between the United States and the major exporting powers, China, Germany and Japan (yesterday there was a joint call in favor of free trade penned by Angela Merke and Shinzo Abe).
US Treasury Minister Stephen Mnuchin rejected any mention of "protectionism" in the final G20 communiqué, insisting that the call for free trade be accompanied by the term "fair". That is, he finds confirmation of the risk of a tug-of-war, between customs tariffs and retaliation, of planetary dimensions that could be triggered by Washington.
It doesn't necessarily end up like this, but the tensions between the big companies, combined with the prospect of rate hikes both in the US and in the Eurozone, suggests that the stock market race is destined to slow down in the coming months.
PARADE OF STARS IN DEALING SQUARE IN THE YEAR OF THE PIRs
In this context, however, Piazza Affari can play important jokers. Tomorrow, in particular, the Star Conference will get underway in Piazza Affari, the event that compares 61 small and medium-sized Italian companies with international investors. An eagerly awaited appointment both for the good performance of the index (+2% in the last six months, almost 9% since the beginning of January) and for the positive debut of the PIRs, the savings investment plans, natural buyers of the "Stars ”. Meanwhile, after the request for precautionary recapitalization is being made in Frankfurt by the Veneto banks, the costly recovery of the system is entering the crucial phase.
FOR VODAFONE 380MILLION NEW CUSTOMERS IN INDIA
The dollar continues to fall in Asia this morning (1,07 62 cross against the euro), down for the fourth day in a row, the longest streak since the election of Donald Trump on the wave of the tug of war with Washington. The yen, on the other hand, rose despite the Japanese financial markets remaining closed today. The descent affects oil: Brent - 0,6% to 51,46 dollars, Wti -0,8% to 48,39 dollars.
The most dynamic Stock Exchange remains Hong Kong: +11,1% since the beginning of 2017. The Hang Seng index crossed the threshold of 24.000 points this morning, the highest since the beginning of 2015 thanks to the influx of orders conveyed by the common platform with the Chinese markets. Weak Sydney -0,5%, flat Shanghai. Seoul and Mumbai are down 0,7% and 0,6% respectively.
Vodafone this morning announced the merger of its Indian operations with rival Idea Cellular. The new company, in which the English partner will control about 45% (against 26% of the Indian partner) has 380 million subscribers.
AGENDA: YELLEN, EUROGROUP SPEAKS ON GREECE
The next increases in the cost of money will be the focus of market attention. After the obvious move by the Federal Reserve, operators are asking for information on the bank's venture strategies, engaged in a difficult remote dialogue with the White House. Several members of the FOMC will speak during the week: Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed, Robert Kaplan of Dallas and Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis, the only one to have voted against the hike in the last meeting. The most important appointment concerns the speech that Janet Yellen will give next Thursday in Washington.
The developments of the ECB's monetary policy are even more awaited after the surprise exit of Ewald Nowotny, an Austrian member of the bank who hypothesized an upward adjustment before the deposit rate (currently at -0,40%) , only in a second moment, of the main refinancing rate, now at zero.
The meeting of the Eurogroup is held today in Brussels. At the center of the meeting was the implementation of the budget laws of the 19 eurozone countries. The second review of Greece's economic adjustment program will also be discussed. The international institutions (European Commission, European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund and European Stability Mechanism) will report in view of the conclusion of a technical agreement on the necessary reforms, together with the Finance Minister of Greece Euclid Tsakalotos.
POSTAL, UBS CRITICISM OF CAIO'S DISMISSAL
Confirmations, news and rejections at the top of the large public companies faced today the test of the market. Of particular note is the return to the limelight of Alessandro Profumo, called to replace Mauro Moretti at Leonardo-Finmeccanica (+14% in the last month on the wave of the return of the dividend after six years). After the decline in debts (mainly due to the resignation) the mission of the new top will be to resume the path of development.
One of the most delicate exams concerns Poste, as an initial comment from Ubs suggests. Analysts Michael Werner and Alex Leng, commenting on the rumors linking Caio's rejection to his refusal to participate in the rescue of MPS and the failed offer on Pioneer, state that "if it were true, it would be very worrying for minority shareholders". But, despite these remarks, the bank gives ample credit to his successor Matteo Del Fante, reiterating the buy on the title.
Luigi Ferraris, former CFO of the Post Office, takes the place of Del Fante at Terna. Confirmed the top management of Eni, Enel and Enav. On the political level, a clear affirmation by Matteo Renzi, the government's "majority shareholder".
VENETIAN BANKS, THE BAILOUT UNDER EVALUATION OF THE EU ANTITRUST
Spotlight on the Veneto banks. On Friday, Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca formally requested state intervention for the precautionary recapitalization of around 5 billion. The move secures senior bonds (3 billion) and eliminates the bail-in risk. Now we have to wait for the bondholders' response to the public transaction offer which will close on Wednesday, necessary to be able to aspire to the go-ahead from the European Antitrust which, together with the ECB and the Treasury, will have to estimate the capital requirement and verify if the requirements are met for public assistance.
In turn, the Atlante fund, participated among others by Banca Intesa, Unicredit and Generali, will have to choose, probably in a few days, whether to invest all the money, 1,75 billion, still at its disposal in the capital or whether to concentrate on NPLs. In this case, Atlante risks becoming a minority shareholder, alongside the Treasury, with an illiquid shareholding.
DEUTSCHE BANK, THE DISCOUNT IS 35% FOR THE INCREASE
Meanwhile, the 4 billion euro capital increase by Deutsche Bank will start tomorrow and close on 8 April: the German bank announced in a note that the issue of 687,5 million new shares will take place at a price of 11,65 euro for action. This is a 35% discount compared to last Friday's stock exchange closing, when the stock lost 1,5% to 17,86 euros.
In any case, the Deutsche Bank share is now worth around 80% more than in the 'black' period of last September, when in the wake of the dispute with the USA over subprime mortgages it swerved fearfully, falling below 10 euros on the Stock Exchange Frankfurt, making all the European squares tremble.
This is the fourth capital injection that the bank has requested since 2010 and, according to analysts, it comes at the right time:
FTSE MIB, TODAY BANCA GENERALI REPLACES MPS
The Ecofin meeting will be held on Tuesday. The ECB's economic bulletin will be published on Thursday. European manufacturing PMI data will be released on Friday.
The composition of the Ftse Mib basket changes: Banca Generali takes the place of Monte Paschi Siena. The coupon of Stm is distributed today.
The takeover bid for Lactalis on Parmalat ends tomorrow. The French owners reiterated that the offer of 3 euros per share should be considered fair and will not be held. Anyone who does not subscribe to this first French offer, but awaits the second mandatory takeover bid (which will have to be launched in the event Lactalis collects subscriptions that lead it to a stake of more than 90%, but less than 95%), will in the meantime be able to collect the dividend.
The Boards of Directors of Telecom Italia, Unipol and UnipolSai are expected on Thursday 23rd.
THE IPO OF UNIEURO IS LAUNCH, COUPON L 6%
The IPO of Unieuro kicks off this morning. The majority shareholder, Italian Electronics Holding (Ieh), 70,5% owned by the private equity fund Rhone Capital II (together with Dixons Retail and the Silvestrini family with management), puts 42,5% of the capital up for sale , which could rise up to 48,88% if the greenshoe option is exercised. The expected collection is 150 million.
As for the price, the range is between 13 and 16,5 euros per share: this means that the valuation of the company fluctuates between 260 and 330 million euros. Institutional investors (to whom the offer is reserved) could be attracted by the dividend, 20 million for the financial year ended 28 February (dividend yield equal to 6%) and in the coming years the goal is to distribute to shareholders no less than 50% of profit.
