The new electoral law and the elections are approaching. Today it will be up to the Democratic Party leadership to approve the so-called German model, i.e. a proportional electoral system with a 5% barrier that jeopardizes the return to Parliament of small parties, including that of Foreign Minister Alfano, who threatens the government crisis, and Brothers of Italy by Giorgia Meloni.
But yesterday's novelty was the go-ahead for the reform of the 5 Star Movement which, once the cards have been discovered and in order to burn time for recourse to the vote, today finds itself on the Renzi-Berlusconi axis. All united, Lega and Bersani included, for the German model and for the early elections immediately after the summer, in September or at the latest in October, even if the crux of the economic maneuver that alarmed the markets remains.
Barring last-minute incidents, the new electoral law has a good chance of reaching the goal of parliamentary approval and of ending both the work of the Gentiloni government and that of the legislature earlier than expected, the conclusion of which should arrive after the German elections of September but before the natural end of February. But the real problem is another and it was highlighted yesterday by the sharp drop in the Stock Exchange and by the upward race of the Btp-Bund spread, namely the danger of ungovernability that a proportional electoral system, opposed only by personalities such as Romano Prodi and Giuliano Pisapia and from small parties, risks projecting onto the political scene.
The proportional system encourages large coalitions, as in France and Germany, but, according to current polls, it would be difficult to form a government in the next legislature because, on paper, neither the Renzi-Berlusconi axis nor the Grillo-Salvini axis would the majority and the markets have noticed this.
