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The economy runs, oil rises, the Nasdaq collects records

The European PMI indices are at their highest levels for 15 years, but the stock exchanges remain cautious – Eni towards the biorefining spin-off – Nexi at the top

The economy runs, oil rises, the Nasdaq collects records

Almost flat calm this morning on Asian price lists: Tokyo slightly progressed (+0,1%), the Chinese CSI 300 was in the red (-0,2%), one week before the start of the celebrations for the centenary of the Communist Party. Images arrive from Hong Kong of long, sad queues of citizens in front of newsstands to buy the latest copy of Apple Daily, the last free newspaper to close its doors after the seizure of funds. From the other China, that of Taiwan, instead comes the news that the immigrant workers of Foxconn and other big semiconductors have been segregated in warehouses for months, with freedom to leave only to go to the factory. Meanwhile, Washington approved overnight sanctions against China for the repression of Xinkiang: imports of polysilicon, a key component of solar panels, are prohibited.

The European picture is less dramatic, but negative: against the boom signaled by the PMI indices (at the highest level in 15 years), there is an increase in tension with Moscow which, in addition to firing cannon fire on an English ship on the Black Sea, is slowing down shipments of natural gas to the West. This is also why the Merkel-Macron duo is pressing for a summit with Putin. 

TESLA STRETCHES, THE FANNIE MAE AGENCY COLLAPSES

In this context, the new historic record of the Nasdaq (+0,13% to 14.271,13) goes almost unnoticed, favored by an unexpected agreement with Beijing. In fact, it was Tesla's expansion (+5,3%) that pushed the index to the record, triggered by the news of the opening in Lhasa, the capital of Tibet, of a solar energy plant to power electric cars.

Little to report in the other New York markets: Dow Jones -0,21%, S&P 500 -0,11%. Also in evidence at the Nasdaq is Nikola: the group of electric and hydrogen trucks will invest 50 million dollars in a blue hydrogen plant.

Federal National Mortgage Association shares plunge (-32%), better known as Fannie Mae. According to the Supreme Court, the agency, which guarantees the immense amount of mortgages on the homes of US citizens (approximately 11.000 billion dollars), will be able to transfer the first profits after the subprime crisis to the Treasury. It is an important sentence for politics: President Biden has already anticipated that he will fire Mark Calabria, the agency's number one, who is an iron Trumpian.

WARREN BUFFETT DISTANCES FROM MARRIED GATES

Warren Buffett's decision to step down from the board of the Melissa and Bill Gates Philanthropic Foundation is causing a stir in the business community. The divorce between the two is not painless.

John McAfee, the father of antivirus, died, probably by suicide, in a Spanish prison after Madrid had granted extradition to the US, where McAfee would have had to answer for tax evasion.

OIL, US STOCKS TOWARDS THE MINIMUM

The ten-year Treasury Note trades at 1,49%, the two-year Treasury Note at 0,26%. The differential between the first and second yield, the parameter which defines the slope of the interest rate curve, is decreasing, after reaching a maximum for the period of around 160 basis points in March.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index of major commodities settled this morning at 92, -0,4%.

WTI oil moved slightly at 73,3 dollars a barrel, on the highs for the period. The trend in US strategic crude inventories is becoming increasingly worrying. In the space of a few months, the reserves present in the strategic node of Cushing (Oklahoma) could drop to their lowest levels in the last three years.

EUROPE IS IMPROVING, GERMANY FLYING. THE BAGS ARE BREAKING

The European economy improves, economic activity rises to its highest level since June 2006, but the Old Continent's Stock Exchanges don't trust them, despite the Fed's reassurances on rates. Yesterday, the PMI indices for the euro area signaled a surge in the services sector, in view of the imminent reopening en masse, a consequence of the drop in infections and the implementation of vaccination campaigns. The biggest confidence boosters are found in Germany, where the survey returned a major five-point increase in responses for the services sector. With an impressive expansion of its manufacturing sector, according to a report by Janus Henderson, "predictions of 9% growth on an annual basis do not appear unattainable for the largest economy in the Eurozone". Rising input costs, including such a key component as wage growth, cast an ominous light on the medium-term outlook for inflation.” But any increase – continues the broker – remains a long way off and market valuations suggest that rates will struggle to return to zero in the next five years”. Positive reflections but which do not pierce the mood of the stock market, down in the afternoon only in Europe. Hard to understand why.  

MILAN (-0,94%) FALLS BACK TOWARDS 25 THOUSAND

New closure in the red for Piazza Affari (-0,94%), in sharp decline in the last few bars. The index, which fell to 25.077 points, falls back towards the technical barrier of 25.

The other European lists are also in negative territory. London limits the damage, Paris leaves 0,9% on the ground, losses exceeding one percentage point for Frankfurt (-1,15%), black jersey, and Madrid.

HISTORICAL RECORD FOR PERNOD AND ESSILORLUXOTTICA

Pernod Ricard soars (+1,97%) after the wine and spirits giant updated its guidance for 2021, saying it expects 16% year-on-year growth in operating profit from recurring operations. The figure has been revised upwards from the previous +10% announced in April.

Historic record also for Essilor Luxottica: Ubs has raised its target to buy from hold. The luxury flagships Lvmh (-2,7%) and Kering (-2,2%) lose ground: according to HSBC "the brands cannot do better".

The Btp Bund spread increased slightly to 112. On Monday 28 the Treasury will offer 6,5 billion six-month BOTs.

ENI SELLS IN THE FINAL, TOWARDS THE SPIN-OFF OF BIOREFINING

The protagonist of the session in Piazza Affari was oil. Thanks to the rise in crude oil prices, Tenaris stands out in the list, even if in the end the gain is reduced to 0,67%. Things are worse for Eni, which resets the profit retained during the session. Yesterday, Eni's CEO Claudio Descalzi said that the oil group could consider the spin-off of the biorefinery activities to merge them with retail activities, as he plans to do with renewable assets. According to the broker Bestinver, “the sale of a minority stake of approximately 30% of the biorefining business could bring over 3 billion additional resources to invest in the energy transition”.

In red Saipem, which also concluded an agreement with the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) to increase the capacity of the Shah acid gas plant in the capital of the United Arab Emirates.

CAMPARI AND AUTOGRILL RUN, NEXI AT THE TOP

The pink jersey on Wednesday went to Nexi (+0,93%), who benefited from the closing of the merger with Sia. Campari shares were also positive (+0,45%), on the wave of Pernod's progress.

Autogrill was very strong (+4,6%) on the levels reached in February 2020 before the pandemic on the last day of negotiation of the rights linked to the 600 million capital increase, thanks also to the cover-up effect. The offer period for the new shares will expire on 29 June. Atlantia sold (-2,2%).

BANKS LITTLE MOVED, EQUITA PROMOTES ILLIMITY

Among the bankers, in general little moved, Fineco rose (+0,62%). Banco Bpm drops 0,2%, while Unicredit rises again (+0,6%). Intesa Sanpaolo (-0,4%) and Bper (-0,6%) were also weak.

Illimity performed well (+1,83%) after the presentation of the industrial plan. Equita raised the target price of the stock by 18% to 13 euros, confirming the buy rating.

IN RED LEONARDO, DIASORIN AND THE UTILITIES

Leonardo yields 0,8%, without reacting to rumors of a plan to restart the IPO of the American subsidiary Drs in the autumn, already launched at the beginning of the year and then frozen in March.

Inwit (-2,73%) and Diasorin (-2,6%) were also in the red. Weak utilities: Terna -1,1% A2a -0,7%. Enel is doing worse, down by 1,2%.

TOD'S FALLS, MEDIASET GOES TO THE NETHERLANDS

In the luxury sector, Tod's stands out in the negative, down 5,1% on profit taking after the spectacular rise in shares starting from the beginning of April (+95%). Moncler is also bad (-1,6%).  

Mediaset -0,55%. The meeting approved the proposed transfer of the registered office to Amsterdam, in the Netherlands. Enertronica (+26,08%) stood out on the Aim, which celebrated a contract for the supply, worth 2,5 million, of 16 MW of inverters for high power storage.

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