THE OLYMPICS MAKE THE BULL FLY TO TOKYO. TOWARDS A LAUNCH START IN EUROPE
The Olympics are good for the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The Nikkei index is about to close with a record rise, around 2,5%. The propellant is provided by the new decline in the yen (-13% since the beginning of the year). The shares of construction companies such as Mitsubishi Real Estate are very bought +5,5%. All observers agree on one point: the assignment of the 2020 games to Tokyo is a formidable accelerator of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's strategy. Meanwhile, the data on growth have been revised upwards: +0,9% (0,6%) the initial estimate in the second quarter. The annual projection is 3,8%. At this point, the VAT hike is easier.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange does even better +3%. In this case, help for the Bull comes from the data on Chinese exports for August: +7,2%, much more than the 5,5% estimated by economists. And from inflation down to 2,6% (against +2,7% in July). One month after the party conference on the economy, China seems to have come out of the mini spring crisis.
TAPERING FARTHER, SYRIA AND BERLUSCONI LOOM
“It is reasonable to predict, after the data on US employment, that the Fed will continue to print money for a while…”. So it reads in the British Daily Telegraph about the possible cut in market purchases by the US central bank. The expected tapering, therefore, may not take place on 19 September, after the Fed meeting. But there is no certainty, what the Emerging Countries have asked of the G20: "it is necessary - says the official statement - that the central banks communicate clearly and transparently”.
But, despite less tension on the interest rate front, the week that coincides with the fifth anniversary of the default of Lehman Brothers (September 15, 2008) does not promise to be calm either on the domestic front (Berlusconi effect) or on the international one (Syrian crisis). During the day, the commission that will have to decide on the dismissal of the former prime minister will meet in the Italian Senate. In the evening in Washington, the Senate will discuss the resolution for the authorization of the limited use of the armed forces against Syria.
Without neglecting some "hot" matches between the enclosures of Piazza Affari.
1/ MONTEPASCHI FILE
In the spotlight the European turning point of Monte Paschi. “Italy bows to EU pressure on Monte Paschi” headlines the Financial Times. From the talks at the Ambrosetti meeting between EU Commissioner Joaquin Almunia and Economy Minister Fabrizio Saccomannni it emerged that: 1) the bank will have to proceed within 12 months with a capital increase of at least 2,5 billion, far more significant than that already approved (1 billion); 2) the bank will have to proceed with the “progressive” sale of a large part of the government bond portfolio (29 billion); c) it will also be necessary, consequently, to revise the business plan, with cost containment actions.
Once these conditions have been accepted, the EU will give the green light to disbursement of the Monti bonds (4,1 billion) without which Siena's Tier 1 is equal to a modest 6,5%. A capital increase of this size and characteristics will have the immediate consequence of reducing the stake in the Foundation well below 10%. But what if the capital increase fails? The bonds will be converted into shares and MPS will end up under the Treasury, a disruptive prospect for credit balances.
2/ TELECOM, QATAR COMES UP
Countdown to the future of Telecom Italia which in the last week gained a total of over 14,6% on the growing M&A hypotheses in the European sector.
The first appointment concerns the awaited board meeting of 19 September, dedicated to the cost-cutting plan prepared by the chairman Franco Bernabé. But also to the possible future scenarios in view of the first window (September 28) for Telecom shareholders who intend to cancel the agreement. In the three days of Ambrosetti the protagonists of the poker game were buttoned up: Bernabé underlined the urgency of an industrial plan with respect to the financial structure; the president of Generali, Gabriele Galateri (formerly Telecom), limited himself to saying that "the contacts between the shareholders continue"; Naguib Sawiris, although interested, withdraws "because the government sides with Telefonica". The Spanish partner is silent. Carlos Slìm vehemently denies a role of his. And, according to financial sources, among the candidates there would be the sovereign wealth fund of Qatar, which among other things, together with the CDP, recently signed up for a vehicle that will have to invest in Made in Italy and tourism.
3/ RATES FRONT
The Ministry of the Economy and Finance will communicate this morning the amount and characteristics of the medium-long term government bonds that will be issued on 12 September. The 3-month and 12-month Bot auction will be held on Wednesday.
There are many insights into the bond market, inside and outside the Eurozone.
The gap between Italy and Spain has almost closed: the Italian 4,51-year BTP ended the week with a yield of 4,53%, just below the 3% guaranteed by the Spanish 256-year Bono. In terms of spread on the German Bund, the gap between Italy and Spain narrowed to just 259 basis points (XNUMX against XNUMX basis points).
The bet on Tapering on the other hand, it inflamed the yields of German securities, a phenomenon which partially subsided at the end of the session. The German bund future collapsed to 138,5, the lowest since September 2012, but the most sensational news is that the German 2,03-year yield has risen to 2%, above the psychological threshold of 2012% for the first time since March 1,2. It was around 6% in mid-March. An issue of German government bonds with a 3-month maturity is expected today. Expected amount: XNUMX billion euros.
The US session was two-faced, conditioned by employment data: at the beginning, the 3-year bond jumped above 2011% for the first time since July 2,93 and then fell to XNUMX% in the final stages.
BAGS, THE PLAZA DE TOROS IS IN MADRID
Wall Street gained about one percentage point on a weekly basis. In this initial part of September, the rebound of Brazil stands out, with an increase of +6%. Or the recovery of the positive trend in Tokyo up 3,5%. The Eurostoxx50 index completed a week with a gain of over 2,5 percentage points. Unpacking the result, the +4% accumulated by the Madrid Stock Exchange stands out. Milan has to "settle" for +1,8%, a performance roughly in line with that of Frankfurt.
FINMECCANICA SALES MOVE MILAN
Rises of more than 7% also for Atlantia, Buzzi and Finmeccanica. StM +6,3%. It was again speculative hypotheses that sent Ansaldo Sts flying up by 6%. The president of General Electric Italy, De Poli, declared that the American group would be interested in examining the "Ansaldo Sts" dossier if Finmeccanica decides to sell.
Enel, thanks to today's +5%, brought the overall performance to +4,5%. Pirelli +4,2% and Prysmian +3,3%. We don't find banks in the top 10, but only an insurance company, Fondiaria Sai, with a +3,3%. The two banking giants Intesa and Unicredit have to settle for gains of around 2%.
If we examine the rear of the group we find Autogrill -4%, and Saipem -3%, but Luxottica also suffered with -2%. Then there is the Brescia-Milanese utility A2A -1,6% and a pair of banks: Ubi -1,5% and Mps -1,3%.
