The markets are hanging on to the last minute diplomacy promoted by French President Emmanuel Macron, who, after a day of telephone contacts, issued a statement in the middle of the night announcing that Russian President Putin and American President Biden have accepted principle the proposal to meet soon in a bilateral summit. But the summit “can only be held if Russia does not invadeUkraine".
Japanese recovery slows down
The Asian markets immediately registered the novelty. In the final session, the Tokyo Nikkei limits the damage to -0,7%. At the start, the Topix index was down 1,8%. Japan's manufacturing activity grew at its slowest pace in five months in February as the data underscores the lingering impact of supply chain disruptions.
Chinese hi-tech loses momentum. Meituan -15%
Hong Kong's Hang Seng also cuts losses in half. Lenovo rises (+6%), just admitted to the Hang Seng Tech list. Lose shots Alibaba (-3%) and Tencent (-2,5%).
The Csi 300 of Shanghai and Shenzhen are also down -0,6%. Meituan loses 15%. The Chinese authorities have asked food delivery companies to lower commission prices, in order to support small companies cornered by the pandemic.
The Chinese central bank kept its key lending rates unchanged, the so-called one-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3,7% and the five-year rate at 4,6%.
The most significant fluctuations concerned oil: up 1,5% when the conflict now seemed inevitable, dropped to 83,12 dollars a barrel (-0,5%) after Macron's mediation. The Iranian Parliament has given the go-ahead for the country's return to the international nuclear agreement by a large majority.
The closure of the US stock exchanges today partially defuses the danger of a new black Monday. But the markets, after another weekend of fear, remain hanging by the thin thread of a difficult negotiation. Putin and the dictator Lukashenko have decided to continue military exercises in Belarus in which about 30 Russian soldiers are employed, due to the "deterioration of the situation".
The PMI indices are coming, tomorrow the Ifo
Against this backdrop of very high tension, economic news forecasts the publication of producer prices in Germany and Markit's PMI data on industry and services trends in Europe, the first numbers after the partial reopening of businesses. Forecasts are for a modest increase in the composite index of around 52,7 points, thanks to the recovery of services in France and Germany.
Tomorrow it will be the turn of the German Ifo index: the latest data have shown an upward trend in confidence. But these are opinions collected before the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis.
“Thousands of illegal encrypted accounts”: Crédit Suisse on trial
Extraordinary Eurogroup and Ecofin are scheduled for Friday in Paris, which will also be attended by the president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
On the corporate front, the results of Barclays, Petrobras, Danone, Rio Tinto, Aston Martin (Wednesday) are to be followed during the week. Thursday will be the turn, among others, of Deutsche Telekom and Rolls-Royce.
A new shingle hits Crédit Suisse. An international investigation conducted by over 160 journalists from 39 countries reveals the identity of the owners of thousands of Swiss bank accounts, including international criminals, tax evaders and drug traffickers from all over the world, from Italian mafia gangs to the underworld of Venezuela and the Philippines. The lender, he writes The print, which publishes the cards in Italy, "has continued to provide its services to these customers for years despite the scandals, the rules on traceability and the repeated promises of cleaning by the managers". Credit Suisse defends itself by claiming to operate in compliance with international and local rules and refuses to comment on specific cases to protect the "duty of confidentiality and care of its customers".
USA hedge accounts are coming. Big hit by Buffet
Despite the closure of Wall Street, important numbers are released today in the US to evaluate the impact of inflation and the geopolitical crisis on the behavior of speculation. The analytical reports of the purchases and sales of hedge funds since the beginning of the year, with a collection of at least one hundred million dollars, have been available since this morning.
Berkshire Hathaway made the big hit this week. Warren Buffet's company has invested about a billion dollars in Activision Blizzard at the moment of greatest tension for the video game giant, hit by complaints of sexually harmful behavior by employees. However, the stock, from the lows of 50 dollars, shot up to 95 dollars after the transfer of control to Microsoft. For the Omaha essay, the capital gain is approximately 300 million dollars.
Meanwhile, over the weekend, two of the Fed's most authoritative exponents took to the field: Vice President Lael Brainard and New York Fed President John Williams. Both have spoken out for a series of rate hikes since the March meeting. Investors, according to polls, expect 52% to increase by one point by June. Thursday's focus will be on core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation metric. Eurozone business, services and consumer sentiment data and the University of Michigan's sentiment indicator will be released on Friday.
The new update on US GDP in the fourth quarter should be watched carefully.
Italy: the Pnrr restarts, spotlights on inflation
On the Italian side, once the bills issue has been filed, it will be the Pnrr, with the hearings of ministers Cingolani (Monday), Colao, Franco and Giovannini (Wednesday). Spotlight on Tuesday also on the definitive data relating to inflation in January, after the institute's preliminary estimates highlighted a rise in prices to the highest levels since 1996.
Quarterly of Juventus and Moncler, coupon of Banca Generali
On the corporate front, the quarterly reports from Inwit, Juventus and Moncler are scheduled for Thursday; on Friday it will be the turn of Rome and Maire Tecnimont.
Today Banca Generali detaches the dividend (0,6 euro relating to previous years).
The Bot Auction will take place on Thursday.
