Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy left the Alte Oper in Frankfurt together, without making any statements, where President Jean-Claude Trichet's farewell evening at the ECB was scheduled yesterday evening in the presence of Mario Draghi who greeted the banker as follows: " During the crisis he was the first to react, the fastest”. And of Christine Lagarde, the general manager of the Monetary Fund who was the first to raise the alarm on the need to recapitalize the banks of the Old Continent. In the late afternoon, before the concert scheduled for 20, there was a surprise summit between Sarkozy, EU president Van Rompuy ("the situation is getting worse" he declared during the day), Barroso, president of the Commission, and Angela Merkel .
The markets are hoping that since face to face between the big names in the European Union that common plan to be presented for approval by the other countries at Sunday's summit has finally emerged.
"What is needed - Trichet said in his farewell speech - is to clarify a crisis management on three fronts: strengthen the EFSF's ability to ensure financial stability, strengthen the balance sheets of European banks and work on an appropriate solution of the Greek crisis with medium-term adjustments».
According to the latest calculations by the EBA, the European Banking Association, the injection of capital into the European banking system could be less than expected. According to the EBA, a figure between 1 and 70 billion euros could be enough to achieve the desired Tier 90 objectives, less than half of the 200 billion already calculated by the IMF.
Yesterday evening in Frankfurt the three candidates to succeed Mario Draghi: the director general of the Bank of Italy Fabrizio Saccomanni, the director general of the Treasury Vittorio Grilli and the member of the directorate of the ECB Lorenzo Bini Smaghi.
Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said this morning that tomorrow he will send the letter proposing the name of the new governor to replace Mario Draghi to the Superior Council of the Central Bank. "I am bound to secrecy, you can only say this," Berlusconi replied to reporters. The bookmakers, however, give Lorenzo Bini Smaghi as the favorite with a slight advantage over Giulio Tremonti's candidate, Vittorio Grilli. Tremonti himself was forced to deny lobbying actions on the directorate to favor his candidate, the director general of the Treasury, Vittorio Grilli. The law which in 2005 reformed the statute of Bankitalia provides that the appointment of the governor is arranged by decree of the President of the Republic, on a proposal from the Prime Minister, following a resolution by the Council of Ministers, having heard the opinion of the Superior Council of the Banca d' Italy.
The recovery of the economy continued in September, albeit at a modest, almost imperceptible pace. The signals coming from the country speak of a weaker or at least uncertain scenario". This reads in Beige Book, the "thermometer" of the US economy anticipated yesterday by the Fed. The most convincing signals come from energy, cars and tourism. Financial services are stuck.
A judgment that certainly does not have the good humor of Wall Street, despite the positive data coming from the building sector: in September 658 new construction sites for housing construction were started in America, with a growth of 15% compared to the previous month of August. Economists had expected growth of 3,3% to 590 new construction sites. But what held back the recovery of the American financial markets was above all tension due to the contradictory news arriving from Europe on the negotiations between France and Germany. In the end, the S&P 500 index closed down by 1,3%, the Dow Jones marks -0,63%, the Nasdaq accuses a decline of 2,01%.
Piazza Affari led the rises of the European Stock Exchanges today after the positive data on the construction trend in the USA. The Ftse Mib index rose by 2%, London gained 0,5%, Frankfurt rose by 0,6%, Paris +0,4%.
The European stock markets have been positive since the morning, encouraged by the rumors of the British newspaper The Guardian, according to which Germany and France would have agreed to increase the European bailout fund (European Financial Stability Facility) up to €2 billion, from €440 billion. Subsequent denials by EU officials, who say no deal has been reached, have not altered the positive bias of the markets.
The euro weakened from the day's highs and fell in the evening to 1,378 against the dollar, from 1,375 at yesterday's close.
Closing down slightly for the BTPs which, associated with an easing of sales on German government bonds during the afternoon, led the BTP-Bund spread to recover from the lows of the day in the area of 385-386 basis points, against 387 yesterday. after an acceleration of more than ten points, up to 390, in the wake of the market disappointment for the indications coming from France..
Great attention today for French and Spanish auctions. Paris is offering up to 7,5 billion euros in two-, three-, four- and five-year bonds, plus 1,2-1,8 billion in indexed bonds, while another 3,25-4,25 billion in bonos arrive from Madrid maturities in 2017, 2019 and 2021. The France-Germany spread on the 2-year bond widens by 115 basis points to XNUMX at the end.
In Piazza Affari and throughout Europe, the upward push came from the banks. Intesa was up 7,3%, Banco Popolare +2,8%, Unicredit overcame the early morning uncertainties and closed up 5,2%, Generali was up 1,9%, Fondiaria- You know +1%. Lottomatica rose by 5,4% after the excellent data on the growth of Lotto bets in September.
Ansaldo gained 3,2% on renewed expectations of a forthcoming sale. The parent company Finmeccanica closed down by 0,3%. StM also down -2%. L'Espresso gained 4,5% after the good results of the quarter.
Il downgrade of Fiat (-2,5%) by Fitch? Sergio Marchionne takes it philosophically. “You are seeing downgrades spread across all sectors, banks, countries. The level of uncertainty is very high and we are not surprised by anything”. The Fiom strike, added the CEO, is “a bad idea”. No reply to Emma Marcegaglia defined as the "former president of Confindustria"
Fiat CEO Sergio Marchionne confirmed the targets for 2011 and 2012, reaffirmed that he did not want to sell CNH and announced the launch of the Alfa Romeo brand in the United States in 2013. Nothing new, however, for Russia. where Fiat would be looking for an industrial ally. 2012 will be a difficult year especially in Italy where the market is falling to levels that “it hasn't reached for 20-30 years. This year we will see a market of less than 1,8 million units. I haven't seen such a level since I arrived in 2004. You have to go back to the 80s and 90s. This means that the industrial machine cannot turn. We have a third of our market in Italy. We have dropped from approximately 2,450 million units in 2008 to 1,750, with the loss of 700 vehicles which cost Fiat 210 vehicles. This is the equivalent of an Italian establishment. It's useless to look for new models, who do we sell them to? There is no market”.
Datalogic has launched an operation for the sale through 'accelerated bookbuilding' of 2 million shares, equal to approximately 3,4% of the share capital, to institutional investors. Datalogic - explains a note - currently owns 4,69 million treasury shares and will assume, on those not placed, a lock-up commitment from the closing date and up to 180 days. Banca IMI acts as global coordinator and sole bookrunner, Intermonte Sim as joint lead manager.
Il green light from Edf to the reorganization of Edison it should arrive during the week, through a new telephone call between the number one of the French energy giant, Henri Proglio and the Minister for Economic Development, Paolo Romani. The French will have to tell the minister how much they are willing to spend on the put option which envisages the certain exit of Italian shareholders in three years. Certainly less than the request of 1,5 euros, considered too expensive.
Only after this summit has taken place will EDF financial director Thomas Piquemal and the Italian negotiators, the chairman of the management board and the general manager of A2A, respectively Giuliano Zuccoli and Renato Ravanelli, be able to sit around a table to finalize the agreement that will probably only be formalized in November.
