Tension remains high, but the panic effect has subsided: many signals, starting with the hostility of the US democrats to an escalation against Iran, have cooled the winds of war for now. The markets take for granted the retaliation of Tehran, already priced in the increases in gold and oil, but are ready to take the other hot topics in hand, from the imminent signing of the agreement on tariffs to the recovery of confidence in the economy, also because it is easy to understand Donald Trump's real intentions: yesterday a US note was released in which the withdrawal of troops from Iraq was anticipated, except for a subsequent denial by General Milley who spoke of "a mistake".
When in doubt, markets tend to use the slump at the beginning of the year as an opportunity to buy. The climate, moreover, remains favorable to Taurus, especially in luxury, as evidenced by the boom in Rolls Royce cars (+25% in 2019) or the exploits of Tesla, which yesterday crossed the threshold of 80 billion dollars in value . The macro data that emerged yesterday also stimulated purchases on the stock markets, which showed an improvement beyond expectations in the macro picture in the United States, the United Kingdom and the EU. “We believe the longest expansion in US history has a long way to go,” said the chief economist at RBC Capital Markets.
SPEE UP TOKYO, GOOD SHANGHAI
Hence the rebound which, starting from Wall Street, affected Asia this morning.
Tokyo accelerates (+1,4%), which is still in shock after the spectacular escape of Carlos Ghosn, who will launch his accusations against Nissan tomorrow in Beirut. The former number one of Renault, according to the reconstructions, left Tokyo by train to embark in Osaka for Istanbul.
Positive ground for the other Asian stock exchanges, starting with China (+0,5%). Stock markets in the Asia Pacific area performed even better (+0,6%).
The dollar recovers against the yen, the euro trades at 1,1192 against the US currency.
OIL DOWN TO 68 DOLLARS, GOLD DOWN
Oil and gold prices fall. Brent withdraws from the peak of 70 dollars a barrel: this morning it is at 68,03. Gold is also holding back, at 1.558 dollars an ounce from 1.582.
The recovery, after a weak start, gained strength yesterday on Wall Street, which closed in positive territory: Dow Jones +0,24%, S&P 500 +0,35%, Nasdaq +0,56%.
GOOGLE MARKS THE NEW RECORD
The technology sector gave a boost to the bull on the eve of the opening of CES, the consumer electronics show in Las Vegas. Alphabet, the holding company that controls Google, set a new all-time high at $1.389. Pivotal Research Group raised its target price to $1.650 from $1.445 previously, with the recommendation switched from Hold to Buy.
EUROLAND FUTURES (+0,6%) IMPROVE CONFIDENCE
An opening under the banner of recovery is looming for share lists. Futures on the S&P index (+0,2%) advanced and those on Eurozone stock exchanges (+0,4%) and on the City (+0,6%) did even better.
On the day of the Epiphany, even the European lists, after a start in free fall, gradually recovered positions, as the feeling spread that Tehran's retaliation will be tough, but, as US political scientist Ian Bremmer claims, " it will not result in a war. Iran – he wrote – is a staunch enemy of the Americans, but is aware of the US military strength. Tehran also has a history of giving up in the face of the threat of a stronger country". Hence the recovery, facilitated by the trend in investor confidence in the euro area, which rose in January for the third consecutive month, supported by the ongoing easing between China and the United States. The Sentix-curated index rose 7,6 points from 0,7 points in December, hitting its highest level since November 2018.
PIAZZA AFFARI RECOVERS BUT CLOSES IN RED
In this context, Piazza Affari, which started with a decline of more than one percentage point, halved the deficit, closing at -0,51%, stopping at 23.581 points. Similar script in the rest of Europe: Frankfurt -0,68%; Paris -0,51%; Madrid -0,47%; London -0,62%.
The recovery in equity markets in the afternoon coincided with a setback for the debt securities markets. The Italian bond lost its edge already in the late morning after the better statistic of the PMI services in December at the euro zone level, thanks to the improving revision of the German index.
THE YIELD OF THE BTP RISES TO 1,36%
The yield on the 0,28-year German Bund recovered to -0,31 from -10%. The 1,36-year BTP rises to 1,31% from 10%. The 1,81-year Treasury Bond traded at 1,77% from XNUMX% this morning.
The Portuguese debt management agency has communicated that the funding needs for 2020 are estimated at around 9,5 billion euros, an amount which is equivalent to gross issuance of government bonds of 16,7 billion.
YESTERDAY IN FLIGHT ENI, LEONARDO AND CONFINVEST
Eni +1,5% thanks to the push of crude oil, which nearly reached 70 dollars. But Goldman Sachs' decision to strengthen the Buy judgment also gave the boost, raising the target price from 19 to 20 euros. Plus signs also for Saipem (+0,87%) and Tenaris (+1,34%).
The winds of war on the Gulf continue to favor Leonardo (+2,8%), who recovers after a subdued period.
Confinvest, the SME with a trading platform active in the purchase and sale of physical investment gold, jumped by 25%, reaching 5 euros from 4 euros at last Friday's closing, which in turn ended up 17% . The stock was priceless for most of the session.
BANKS DOWN AND MANAGEMENT, FCA AND STM HOLD BACK
Banks recovering from their lows, but still negative: Unicredit -2% and Banco Bpm -2,7%.
Sales also in the asset management sector. Azimut -1%: in the year that has just ended, the 300 million profits of the set target will be "abundantly exceeded", declared the president Pietro Giuliani in an interview with Milano Finanza. FinecoBank -1%, Banca Mediolanum -2,2%.
Atlantic -0,8%. Moody's further downgraded its rating to Ba2 from Ba1, after bringing it below the investment grade mark a month ago. The agency cites growing political pressure on Atlantia following the publication of the Milleproroghe decree which cuts reimbursements due to defaulting concessionaires in the event of revocation.
Fiat Chrysler also down (-1,5%). Informal talks are underway to define the terms of an agreement between Exor and the Peugeot family which will allow for the lock-up of 22,5% of the new group resulting from the merger. Ferrari -1%, Brembo -2,5%, Stm -2,3% and Nexi -3,7%.
