Everything is ready for the big tariff agreement between China and the US which will be signed on Wednesday in Washington. While waiting to read the 86 pages of the first agreement on tariffs, the markets note with satisfaction that the two superpowers have decided to inaugurate a permanent forum for discussion on the economy, according to the model already adopted under Obama. Meanwhile, the first agreement on duties provides for a 50% cut in tariffs on imports from Beijing, which undertakes to buy US goods worth 200 billion dollars. The news gave new fuel to the bull's race, determined to grind new records.
ASIA AT HIGHEST IN 19 MONTHS
Asian stocks hit 19-month highs this morning. The Korean Kospi and Hong Kong lead the race, both +0,7%. In the former British colony, where protests continue, an important financial meeting is being held today in the presence, among others, of Janet Yellen. Taiwan was also positive (+0,6%) after the affirmation of the outgoing president Tsai-Ing-Wen against the candidate acceptable to Beijing.
More modest increase for Shanghai, which celebrated the sixth consecutive positive week. Tokyo closed this morning, where the coming-of-age day is being celebrated today: 1,22 million Japanese are turning twenty this year, the legal age to smoke and drink alcohol.
The dollar loses share against the yuan for the third consecutive day, at 6,89: the cross revises the levels of four months ago.
THE DOLLAR RISES ONLY ON THE YEN
The US currency, as happens on days when the stock markets are up, strengthens against the yen, to 109,6. Instead, the comeback of the currencies of Asia and emerging countries continues. The dollar-Indonesian rupiah cross falls to its lowest level since April 2018, at 13.670. The Indian rupee appreciates for the fifth consecutive day, at 70,8. Malaysia's ringgit also rose to its highs for the period.
Euro dollar at 1,129, up slightly from -0,4% last week.
Gold down to 1.555 dollars an ounce, -0,4%. Among the precious metals, we are close to the records for palladium, traded at 2.118 dollars: last week the increase was 6,5%.
Oil moved little: Brent at 65 dollars a barrel. Last week's 5,3% decline is the largest in three months.
DOLLAR FUTURES UP ONLY AGAINST THE YEN
The positive trend for risk investments is confirmed by the trend in futures: +0,28% for contracts on the S&P, which this morning reached their all-time high.
The evolution of the Iranian crisis also justifies the optimism. Also because it accompanies other successes of Donald Trump. Tehran, in particular, is grappling with popular protests over the dramatic mess that caused the shooting down of a 737 over Iranian skies and the subsequent lies.
US QUARTERLY REPORTS UNDERWAY: JP MORGAN STARTS
Data on the US labor market on Friday (+139 jobs against the 153 expected) meanwhile justify the current expansive policy of the Fed on the eve of the start of the earnings campaign. Tomorrow JP Morgan will open the dances (+12% the analysts' estimate) together with Wells Fargo. Goldman Sachs (expected 13% earnings increase) followed by BlackRock and Citigroup before opening Wednesday. Thursday will be the turn of Morgan Stanley (+37% forecasts).
Central bank summits include meetings of Turkey, South Africa and Egypt.
GROWTH DATA FOR GERMANY AND UK COMING SOON
Wall Street's euphoria also supports the European markets, grappling with two demanding tests: the data on growth from Germany in 2019, expected to drop sharply (+0,5% against 1,5% in 2018) and those from the United Kingdom Kingdom, which will serve to measure the costs of the battle on Brexit.
The minutes of the last ECB meeting of 2019 will be announced on Thursday. Central bank summits this week include meetings of Turkey, South Africa and Egypt.
To follow the challenge on pensions in France after the partial retreat of Emmanuel Macron, forced to give up raising the retirement age from 62 to 64 after a month of strikes.
ALITALIA AND AUTOSTRADES ON THE ITALIAN AGENDA
In Italy, where the trend in retail sales will be announced this morning, the week is characterized not only by the march towards the vote in Emilia-Romagna, by the green light to the Alitalia decree-law and by the economic bulletin of the Banca of Italy. On Thursday there will be the presentation of the industrial plan of Autostrade per l'Italia.
The Italian Stock Exchange reopens its doors after hitting its highest since May 2018 on Friday.
THE FCA-PEUGEOT AXIS TIGHTENS, DE MEO IN RENAULT
Great animation in the automotive sector. The timing of the integration between Fiat-Chrysler and PSA is accelerating. In an interview with a French newspaper, Jean-Philippe Peugeot explained that the family aims to increase its stake as soon as possible in the new group that will be born after the merger between FCA and PSA. The family will hold 6,2% of the new automotive group.
The Chinese Geely, owner of Volvo and second shareholder of Daimler, has announced the landing with a minority stake in Aston Martin.
Always on the front page Renault-Nissan. The Japanese, writes the Financial Times, have developed a plan to put an end to the alliance with the French house starting with the new investments, while the judicial clash with Carlos Ghosn continues. Today the Régie will announce the appointment of the new general manager: he will be Luca De Meo, former right-hand man of Sergio Marchionne, fresh from his prodigious success in Seat.
THE JUVENTUS TITLE IN THE SPOTLIGHTS
On the shields the title Juventus after the victory against Roma which allowed the club (+12% in the last year) to win the title of winter champion. The company has just successfully completed a €300 million capital increase. The majority shareholder Exor subscribed and paid in full its share of the capital increase (equal to 63,8% of Juventus' share capital), for a total amount of approximately 191,2 million euro.
The affirmation of Fininvest, which prevailed in the Mediaset meeting over Vivendi, which has already made it known that it will continue its battle to stop the launch of Mef, the European holding promoted by the Alfa, both in the courts, was examined by Piazza Affari today Spaniards than in Holland.
