SITTING AT THE GALLOP. MILAN FINAL RUSH +3,21%
THE MARKETS BELIEVE IN THE MERKEL-SARKOZY COUPLE
Piazza Affari closes the session at a fast pace, with the FtseMib index rising by 3,67% to 16.098. The other European Stock Exchanges were also positive: London rose by 1,8%, Paris +2,13%, Frankfurt +3,02%. Similar script across the Atlantic. Today is the Columbus Day holiday in America. The government bond market is closed, while the Stock Exchange functions normally and rises vigorously: Dow Jones +2,3%, S&P +2,9%, Nasdaq +2,9%. The euro is running the day after the Franco-German agreement on the European debt crisis: the single currency rises by 1,6% to 1,36 against the dollar. In fact, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, after a meeting yesterday in Berlin, said their goal is to come up with a sustainable response to Greece's debt problems and reach an agreement on how to recapitalize the banks European. But the details of their plan were not disclosed, which did not prevent the diffusion of a certain optimism: more than words, it was probably the rescue of Dexia by Belgium and, to a lesser extent, by France that counted. It is the confirmation that, in some way, the promise to avoid a European Lehman Brothers will be fulfilled. The newfound optimism on the part of investors is pushing commodities: for oil it is the fourth consecutive day on the upside. Wti rose by 1,9% to 84,5 dollars a barrel, Brent +1,2% to 107,1 dollars. The week in which the Treasury reappears on the market with auctions of BOTs and BTPs opens calmly: the spread between Italy and Germany is stable, the spread between the ten-year bonds of the two countries reaches 350 basis points, in line with the close of the previous session. It should be noted that the spread between the Spanish bond and the German bund drops to 294 basis points.
COLD SHOWER FROM VIENNA, ERSTE BANK COLLAPSES -13%
AND PROTON BANK'S DEFAULT ARRIVES IN ATHENS
In any case, banks throughout Europe remain weak with the exception of the Italian ones. Off to a good start, the sector's EuroStoxx is now down by 0,2%. There are fears that major capital increases will have to be launched and that institutions holding Greek government bonds will have to take on a higher than expected "haircut" (reduction in the value of the repayment). Among the decreases, the case of the Austrian Erste Group stands out (-13%) after the announcement of a net loss, for 2011, of 800 million euros. The bank had closed the first three quarters of the year with a positive net result of 700 million euros and for the full year the consensus of analysts indicated a net profit of 980 million euros. The estimates announced this morning will weigh 939 million in write-downs made on the assets of the Hungarian and Romanian divisions. The institute also announced that it will not pay a dividend "for at least a year" in order to be able to repay the aid (equal to 1,2 billion euros) received from the Austrian government. Erste Group is the second largest credit institution in Eastern Europe. The Bank is present not only in Hungary and Romania, but also in the Czech Republic and Croatia. News of the use of the bailout fund to nationalize Greece's Proton Bank sends Greek bank stocks tumbling on fears that other lenders may follow suit: Piraeus Bank falls 21%, Alpha Bank 12,8%.
THE RACE FOR UNICREDIT EXPLODES: +12,21%
INDUSTRY BOOM IN THE FINAL. FIAT UP BY 5,98%
Faced with the general decline of European banks, the leap of Italian banks stands out even more: the Italian ones are moving against the trend. Unicredit, the most exposed to Eastern Europe, leads the index with +12,21%, followed by Banco Popolare +3,71% and Ubi +2,91%. Intesa Sanpaolo also gains share +5,72%. The insurers are all positive: Generali +2,18%, Fondiaria-Sai +2,91%, recovering after the warning. Unipol scores +4,65%. Remaining in Piazza Affari, oil shares rose in the wake of the rise in crude oil: Eni rose by 2,2%, Saipem by 5,21%. Tenaris is doing even better +2,67%. Shares of the world's largest producer of pipes for the oil industry benefited from the rally in crude oil and the promotion of Bank of America, which announced on Friday that it had raised its recommendation to buy from neutral. Final boom for Fiat which rises by 6,21%, Pirelli +4,26%. StM 5,67%. Fiat Industrial also jumped +3,52% after a session down on the news that Scania will cut truck production in Europe from November due to weakening demand. Buzzi confirms its growth +5,44%. Brilliant instead Prysmian +5,58%. Enel rose by 2,34%, supported by Cheuvreux who included it among his favorite stocks. Among the minor titles, the Gavio galaxy stands out, engaged in the chess match against Impregilo: Auto To-Mi +7,7%, Sias +5,5%.
SURPRISE: US GDP FOR GS BETTER THAN EXPECTED
AND ITALIAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION IS BOOMING
Among the reasons for Wall Street's rebound, the surprisingly positive forecasts of Goldman Sachs stand out, which revised upwards the US GDP growth estimates for the third quarter, bringing them to +2,5%, from +2%. The expected growth rate is nearly double Q1,3's 12% and, if confirmed, will mark the strongest growth in 2010 months. Even in Italy, with no less surprise, better than expected data emerges. In August, a critical month for the markets and for the political situation, industrial production reversed the downward trend that began in the third quarter of 4,7: +4,3% on an annual basis, +2011% compared to the previous month. Since the beginning of 3, the figure has been in line with a growth of approximately 3,6%. Among the various categories, metallurgy, manufacturing of means of transport and pharmaceuticals did very well. The forecasts, at this point, are for an encore in September: electricity demand, correlated to industrial production, had marked +5% in August and reported +XNUMX% in September. September is therefore likely to be another positive month for industrial production. The boom is probably more linked to the replenishment of inventories than to an effective increase in final demand: companies now have a minimum inventory level, which contributes to making the production figure subject to greater sudden changes.
APPLE EFFECT. AT&T FILL UP WITH IPHONE 4S
SAMSUNG, AS A SIGN OF MOURNING, POSTPONES THE COMPETITOR
The long wave of emotion produced by the death of Steve Jobs continues to produce effects. AT&T climbed 1,5% after announcing the sale of more than 200.000 units of Apple's latest phone, the iPhone 4S, in the first 12 hours of marketing. AT&T says it has received "exceptional demand" for the cell phone launched the day before Apple founder Steve Jobs died. Meanwhile, the Korean competitor Samsung of the Cupertino firm announced today that it had delayed the launch of the new smartphone that uses the latest version of Google's Android operating system, as an act of sensitivity towards the death of Steve Jobs.
