The great fear of the beginning of the year is now behind us. We are once again breathing an air of records on the Stock Exchanges, also thanks to the recovery of oil prices. And the markets' attention shifts back to the central banks, starting with today's ECB directorate to continue with the board of the Fed and the Japanese Boj next week: it is expected that, with different tones, the central banks will reiterate their need for an expansionary policy.
The American stock market recorded a slight rise: Dow Jones +0,24% to 18.096, S&P 500 +0,08% still above 2.100 points. The Nasdaq is up 0,16%. Some positive macro data, such as the increase in home sales, offset the disappointments on the quarterly front, such as that of Coca Cola (-4,78%).
OIL: US PRODUCTION DECLINES, CONSUMPTION ON THE RISE
But the most positive note comes from oil, which is recovering strongly despite the cessation of the strike in Kuwait. Prices are at their highest for the year, confirming the forecasts of the International Energy Agency, which foresees an upward rebalancing of the market in the second half of the year. The quotations of Brent (45,55 dollars a barrel) and of Wti (43,89 dollars) rise by 4%.
The rebound was favored by: a) the recovery of gasoline consumption in the USA (+4% compared to a year ago) which is driving refinery activity to the highest levels; b) the drop in US shale oil production, below 9 million barrels for the second consecutive week. This is more than 600 barrels less than the peak of 9,6 million barrels per day reached in mid-2015.
Asian stock exchanges tuned into the wave of optimism. Tokyo is up 2% this morning, followed by Hong Kong (+1,5%) and other markets: the Asia Pacific index is at its highest since the beginning of December, thus erasing the great fear of the Chinese crisis. Little move Shanghai.
EUROPE IS WAITING FOR THE ECB'S NEW WEAPONS. MILAN +1,14%
Positive session yesterday also for Europe. Frankfurt, thanks also to rumors of an agreement between Volkswagen and the US authorities (the German group will buy back over half a million counterfeit diesels), is up 0,82%, one step away from the prices at the beginning of the year. Paris rises by 0,61%. London +0,22% after the publication of data on the unemployment rate which remains stable at 5,1% in the quarter ended February 2016. Piazza Affari did better (+1,14%), galvanized by some positive notes on the front banking. However, Milan remains far from the values at the beginning of the year.
It is in this setting that Mario Draghi returns to the field this morning. Traders are expecting the central banker's response to criticisms by Wolfgang Schaeuble and other German officials against Frankfurt's low-rate policy. But also to understand what weapons the ECB intends to use in case the current expansionary monetary policy proves not to be sufficient. Draghi is expected to provide further details on the TLTRO and the extension of the purchase programme, aimed at better defining the advantage that European banks can derive from the current monetary policy.
BTP 20, 58% WERE PURCHASED FROM ABROAD
Meanwhile, the success of the 20-year BTP issued by the Treasury confirmed the "hunger" of the markets, in search of positive returns. The 6,5 billion 41,9-year BTP issue was mostly subscribed by foreign investors. Only about 58,1% was subscribed by Italian investors. The remaining 20,4% are divided between the United Kingdom and Ireland (10,1%), the United States (9,1%), Germany and Austria (4,1%), the Scandinavian countries (3,3%), France (3,3%), Switzerland (3,2%), Spain and Portugal (2,2%), Asia (2,5%) and other countries (XNUMX%).
ATLANTE, PROMOTED BY THE EU, WILL PAY VICENZA POPS 0,10 EURO
This time, unlike Tuesday, the afternoon was good for Italian bank stocks. Leading the race was Monte Paschi (+6,14%): in the evening Fitch confirmed the long-term and short-term ratings respectively at 'B-' and 'B' with a stable outlook. Followed by Unicredit (+4,61%), Ubi (+3,2%), Mediobanca (+3,1%) and Banca Popolare Emilia-Romagna (+2,95%). Intesa scores an increase of 1,82%. Out of the main Carige basket +4,8%: ICBPI revised the rating from "neutral" to "buy".
There are several explanations for the bounce:
– The wait for the ECB summit and even more for Mario Draghi's conference favored the entire European credit sector (+2,2%). Analysts are expecting a firm reply to the German criticisms of the ECB's policy on low rates.
– The European Commissioner for Competition Margrethe Verstager has "acquitted" the Atlante fund: the instrument is not designed to avoid EU controls on state aid. “No, I don't think that the choices of the Italian government serve to avoid control over state aid. I think they are trying to find the best possible way to move the Italian banking sector forward,” she said yesterday.
– The EU Commission has also given the green light to repayments for the bondholders of the four banks that ended up in resolution in December. Credit Agricole has denied the launch of an offer on the Good Banks (Popolare dell'Etruria, Cradife, Cassa Chieti and Banca delle Marche).
– The prospects for increases in Veneto banks are improving. Unicredit CEO Federico Ghizzoni said he is highly confident that the capital increase of Banca Popolare Vicenza will go through positively. Unicredit, sole guarantor up to 1,5 billion of the capital increase from 1,76 billion, has signed an agreement with Quaestio Management (Atlante) which provides for the intervention of the Atlante fund, in place of Unicredit in the event of an unopted price not exceeding the minimum value of the fork, i.e. 0,10 euros. The maximum commitment for Atlante (collections rose to over 4 billion yesterday) will be 1,5 billion. Furthermore, pending the publication of the prospectus after the additions requested by Consob, it emerges that the condition of a free float of at least 25 % of the principal “will not be binding”.
– For Gian Maria Gros-Pietro, chairman of the Management Board of Intesa, market conditions should allow the success of Veneto Banca's 1 billion euro capital increase without resorting to the help of the Atlante Fund. The subsidiary Banca IMI is at the head of the guarantee consortium on the increase aimed at listing on the Stock Exchange.
VOLKSWAGEN GIVE UP THE CAR, CNH CONTINUES TO FLY
A clear improvement also for industrial stocks. The push comes from Fiat Chrysler (+1,6%) and from Cnh Industrial (+3,4%), in an Automotive sector that is growing in Europe by 1,1%, thanks above all to the push from Volkswagen (+6,5, XNUMX%). The German company said it has nothing to fear from the trial that will soon begin in the US for having altered the data on the pollution of its engines.
Finmeccanica reduces its loss to -0,1%, Stmicroelectronics drops by 0,9%, Prysmian +0,6%. Buzzi +1,1% after the launch of the 500 million 7-year bond.
MAXIMUM ANTITRUST AGAINST MEDIASET. DELLA VALLE: I BUY IN RCS
Expected this morning for the market reaction to the blow inflicted by the Antitrust on Mediaset. The Authority has punished the protagonists of the open battle for TV rights on Serie A for the period 2015-2018. Fines totaling 66 million were imposed on the main television operators in the pay-TV market: Sky and Mediaset Premium, as well as on Lega Calcio and its advisor Infront. The hardest hit was Mediaset with a fine of 51,4 million.
Telecom Italia, which is preparing to acquire control of Premium, gained 0,5%. Spotlights on the declarations of Vincent Bolloré and Arnaud de Puyfontaine at the Vivendi meeting to be held today at the Olimpia in Paris.
Speaking of Rcs, Diego Della Valle, which owns 7,1% of the capital, wanted to clarify that "we are buyers and not sellers" but did not close the door to Urbano Cairo, a friend who was right to try . It's his job and I don't consider it a hostile operation because we are buyers and partners, so to speak, of people who share my goal of having an independent editorial group, and I emphasize independent, with a board of directors that deals with give value to the shares”.
A2A PREPARES THE OFFER FOR ACSM-AGAM. STOP LUXURY
A2A +1,8%: the group is preparing to acquire the majority of Acsm-Agam (+1,2%), the electricity and gas company of the Municipalities of Como and Monza. Analysts expect a mixed stock and cash offer. Little move Enel (+0,1%).
Negative closure for the luxury sector: Yoox -0,5%, Moncler -1,8%. Luxottica (-0,15%) moved down to 48,21 euros, about two percentage points from the lows of the year recorded last week. Kepler-Cheuvreux confirmed the Hold recommendation with a target price of 51 euros. Tods (-1,4%) confirmed the dividend of 2 euros, despite the higher number of shares, linked to the capital increase for the acquisition of Roger Vivier.
QUAESTIO DOES SHOPPING IN TECHNO-INVESTMENTS
Tecnoinvestimenti gained 2,9%: Tecno Holding, the majority shareholder with a 78,86% stake, placed 22% of the capital at 3,4 euros per share. The Sgr Quaestio Capital Management, which deals with the management of Atlante, a support fund for the banking system, was awarded 10% of the capital, on behalf of the Italian Growth Fund, an open fund intended for medium-sized listed companies. The asset management company said it was willing to subscribe to the Tecnoinvestimenti capital increase of up to 50 million for its share.
Ovs lost 3,9% after the main shareholder, Gruppo Coin, sold approximately 10% of the capital on the market to institutional investors at 5,68 euros per share.
