We were used to having to intervene by bringing the imaginative interpretations of the newspaper headlines that appear on the occasion of Istat's surveys on the labor market back to the reality of the data. Istat is now out with the surveys relating to the month of May, with all the data in the positive field and not just: it hasn't happened for a long time. Employment is growing, in absolute and percentage terms, for both men and women, and in all age groups. The inactivity and unemployment rate decreases. Those who won the elections in March might even be tempted to claim these successes. Instead, the Government surpasses the newspapers and speaks of a "record of precariousness", then pouring out, on the occasion of the "Dignity Decree", a tsunami of lies and rhetoric on the subject.
Instead there is a first fact that should be celebrated, but, alas, it contradicts the Minister: in May, there were more permanent hires than fixed-term ones (70.000 against 62.000). This hasn't happened since the first months of application of the Jobs Act: it could be a first result of the tax relief provided for by the Stability Law, but we don't have enough data to confirm it.
But there is another extremely significant figure: the trend variation (last 12 months) shows that temporary employment increases (+16,4%) but permanent employment remains stable (+5.000 units, +0,0% as a percentage). In other words, fixed-term employment does not replace "permanent" employment, but adds to it. This is confirmed by the INPS data (Annual Report on the Labor Market 2018): in 2017 the number of permanent employees (14.966.000) practically reached the all-time high reached in the third quarter of 2008 (15.007.000).
We have already spoken in issue 31 of the fact that the Italian fixed-term employment numbers are perfectly within the European numbers. Fighting it is an ideological operation, which, as we will verify in some surveys, will not produce any employment advantage. But other details worthy of attention emerge from the INPS report: in 2016 (latest data available) 63,7% of the fixed-term contracts activated were shorter than three months. On average, a worker had two contracts of this duration during the 12 months. As can be imagined, the severe restrictions of the Dignity Decree would affect a very marginal number of people.
But the political message is very important and is also perceived as a potential burden of litigation in court. If these measures are not modified by Parliament (the confederation union leaders consider them inadequate but "going in the right direction") they could more realistically discourage new fixed-term hires, without increasing those with permanent contracts. It will be important to carefully examine the dynamics of the labor market in the coming months to understand whether the albeit modest growth rates of GDP, and with the entry into force of the measures announced, confirm the trend towards a gradual but constant increase in the overall levels of occupation.
