The decline in the number of employed persons recorded by Istat for the month of June (actually the first after many quarters of employment growth) is part of a growth trend which by now appears to be consolidated, but which is affected by the trend of the economy. The trend in employment results are clearly positive, both compared to the last 12 months (+330.000 equal to +1,4%) and compared to the previous quarter (+196.000 equal to +0,8%). The increase in the unemployment rate is also mainly attributable to the increase in the activity rate (+2,1% compared to the previous month): which means a greater number of job seekers driven by the climate of greater confidence and that when if she does not find it, she remains classified as unemployed.
It should be noted that employment has now reached pre-crisis levels: in June 2008, the maximum reached before the crisis, there were 23.142.000 employed people, now we are at 23.320.000. Employment levels have therefore largely been restored, and further room for improvement will depend on the ability to improve productivity and conquer new markets. Under these conditions, the trend in employment becomes highly sensitive to stimuli, positive or negative, coming from economic dynamics. This motivates, as Marro rightly observes in Corriere della Sera, the cyclical downturn recorded.
However, some "curious" observations can be made. Forward contracts recorded strong growth in June (+16.000) in contrast with the general employment trend. How come? Permanent employment decreased by as much as 56.000 units, while in May they had increased by the same amount. How come?
Here the "Dignity Decree" probably plays some role, in terms of the effect of announcement. In fact, the version of the Decree that circulated in June stated that "... the provisions... are to be applied to fixed-term employment contracts entered into after the entry into force of this Decree...". It's not hard to think that companies wanted to stock up on old-style futures contracts before the rules changed.
The small boom in open-ended contracts in May was probably attributable to the social security incentive introduced by the Gentiloni government: it was enough to announce that a few steps were being taken back on the amendments to article 18 set forth in the Jobs Act to nullify their positive effects. As we have always argued, it is wrong to attribute to individual regulatory provisions, especially in the absence of adequate rates of development, the ability to create lasting jobs out of nothing which instead can be encouraged or held back by legislation. To give a definitive judgment on these measures, which will also be approved in these hours and will go into effect starting next October, we need to wait until the end of the year or the first months of 2019.
Without wanting to repeat the refrain of "it's raining, thieving government!" however, it must be noted (the Government should pay the most attention) that some not particularly satisfactory trend reversals in the labor market in the period that followed the debate on the "Dignity Decree" may not be a mere coincidence.
