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Argentina scares the markets, Italy the electoral unknown factor

Argentina is the new loose cannon of the markets: after Wall Street, Asia too falls – Gold skyrockets – Political uncertainty dominates Piazza Affari

Argentina scares the markets, Italy the electoral unknown factor

WTI oil trades at $54,7 a barrel, up 0,5%. The stocks that suffer the most are the oil companies: Tenaris -3,24%; Saipem -2,44% yesterday. The first, in particular, pays off the company's exposure to the Argentine market.

From Argentina to Hong Kong, as often happens in August, only apparently local crises erupt, bearing witness to the fragility of the global picture, already weakened by the endless and inconclusive trade war and Brexit.

THE ANGRY OF THE CHINESE AGAINST DONATELLA VERSACE

Among others, Donatella Versace pays the price, who yesterday deeply apologized for a T-shirt in which, alongside "Beijing-China" there is that of Hong Kong-Hong Kong and "Macau-Macau" treated as independent states. Apologies rejected and Capri stock (the Michael Kors holding company that owns the Versace brand) down 9% on Wall Street. Meanwhile, demonstrators yesterday occupied the airport of the former British colony, which has now returned, so to speak, to normal.

BUENOS AIRES AGAIN SCARY

The dramatic economic situation in Argentina (unemployment at 35%) is instead at the origin of the collapse in the primary elections of President Mauricio Macri. Immediate the market reaction, probably not wrongly convinced that the return to the Casa Rosada of Alberto Fernandez's Peronists, backed by former president Cristina Kirchner, would mean denouncing the agreement signed with the IMF. The reaction of the Stock Exchange was brutal: -48%, an all-time record for world finance: The peso fell yesterday by 34% to 58 against the dollar, only to then drop back to 53 after the weak reassurances of the probable new president: there will be no default, Fernandez said, adding however that the debt is "too high".

TENARIS IN THE SIGHT, PIRELLI, CNH AND SALINI SUFFER

Tenaris fell sharply yesterday (-3,4%) which has about a fifth of its production capacity in Argentina. The devaluation of the peso, in terms of mere accounting, has a positive effect, as the costs of its companies located in the country are expressed in local currency. But the financial crisis, if it were to become economic as well, would have a negative impact on investments in the development of oil activities in Argentina.
Other companies listed on the Stock Exchange that are exposed in Argentina are Pirelli, Cnh Industrial and Salini Impregilo.

TOKYO -1,3%. THE YUAN STABLE

The markets record the news with growing concern.

Shanghai and Shenzhen CSI 300 indexes are down 1%. Tokyo's Nikkei, closed yesterday for holidays, lost 1,3%. Kospi of Seoul -0,7%. Singapore's Ftse Strait Times -0,8%.

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange drops by 1,8% even if the partial calming of the demonstrations around the airport has allowed the airport to reopen today. The protests have reached their tenth week, the political authorities, yesterday for the first time said that there are signs of "terrorism". This morning Chinese TV broadcast images of armored vehicles marching from Shenzhen towards the border of the former British colony.

The yuan moves little, at 7,06 against the dollar. The Central Bank set the swing reference value at 7,032, slightly above yesterday's value but below traders' expectations.
The Taiwan dollar, the Korean won, the Malaysian ringgit and other area currencies depreciated. 
The dollar-yen cross, which fell to its lowest level since the beginning of the year at 105,3, rebounded to 105,5 (+0,2%).

THE US STOCK FALLS, A NEW COLOSSUS IN THE MEDIA

Last night Wall Street closed in deep red: Dow Jones -1,49%, S&P 500 -1,23%, Nasdaq -1,2%.

All the banks down: Bank of America -2,4%.

At this juncture BlackRock gives itself to fashion. The New York financial giant has invested 870 million in Authentic Brands, which owns several brands in clothing, athletics and entertainment. 

Another operation is that between CBS (-1,5%) and Viacom (-2%). According to the Wall Street Journal, the two companies that date back to tycoon Sumner Redstone are close to a merger agreement with the aim of creating a new giant in the entertainment sector. 

ARAMCO BUYS 20% OF RELIANCE IN INDIA

Brent oil moves slightly at 58,5 dollars a barrel. Yesterday Aramco, the Saudi giant, announced the purchase of 20% of Reliance, the main refiner in India.

FLAT DEPARTURE FOR EUROPE

European stock futures are flat ahead of the open.

In such an agitated global context, the European markets experienced yesterday, after a hopeful start, a session marked by uncertainty, also due to the uncertainties of the Italian situation in constant evolution, hour after hour. Thus the Old Continent also contributes to the race for safe havens.

Gold has never been so high, rising to a maximum of 1.517 dollars.

A new wave of bond buying is coming. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell by 6 basis points to 1,68%, a new low since the end of 2016.

The news comes from Denmark that the third largest bank in the country has decided to make loans at negative rates.

MARKET PLACE FAILS THE BOUNCE

After a promising start, Piazza Affari has deflated. The index drops 0,3% and drops to 20.268 points, aggravating the balance of losses, after Friday's crash.

The other markets were also in the red: Frankfurt -0,13% waiting for the second quarter data to be released tomorrow; Paris -0,33%; Madrid -0,92%; London -0,33%.

SPREAD AT 234

The BTP closed the session in positive ground after the narrow escape of a downgrade by the rating agency Fitch. Operators are betting that the elections won't be as close as the League is asking.

In closing, the spread between the ten-year BTP and the Bund is 234 basis points from 233 at the start and from 241 on Friday.  

The ten-year rate settled in the 1,74% area after closing on Friday at 1,83%.

CAMPARI AND FERRARI PROTECT PIAZZA AFFARI

Piazza Affari, as always happens in the most difficult moments, turns to Campari (+2,9%) the defensive title par excellence.

Ferrari is also advancing (+1,28%) the benchmark of made in Italy luxury. Fiat Chrysler unchanged.

Buzzi Unicem also rose (+0,7%), also supported by JP Morgan, which increased the target to 21 from 20 euros.

FLAT BANKS, ATLANTIA SUFFERS

Atlantia loses its luster (-1,1%), now treated as a put on the future of the government. Salini Impregilo also fell by 4,4% in the face of possible obstacles to Progetto Italia in the construction sector.

Banks under close observation due to the sovereign risk effect even if today, with a spread down to 234 points compared to 241 on Friday, selling is limited. The sector index dropped by 1,6%, substantially in line with the basket of European banks where the new all-time low of Commerzbank stands out (-4%, at 5,04 euro). Bper and Intesa Sanpaolo lost around 2% and Unicredit 1,45%. In contrast, Mps rose by around 1,3%.

Poste Italiane made a modest recovery (+1,2%) after the heavy losses suffered on Friday.

Enel (+0,6%) is negotiating the sale of about half of its stake in Open Fiber to a consortium of funds, as reported by Bloomberg. Tim (-0,5%) is also included in the picture, ready to acquire a significant stake in Open Fiber from Cassa Depositi e Prestiti.

EDITORIALS COLLAPSE, GEDI AT THE MINIMUM

In the rest of the list, the collapse of editorials should be noted. RCS Mediagroup falls by 7%, to the lowest level in the last two years. Gedi -5,3%, to the lowest value ever.

Takes flight at Aim Confinvest (+6,70%), market leader in coined gold.

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