WHITE SMOKE FOR GREECE
THE GERMAN LINE PREVAILED
In the end, Germany won. The agreement on Greece that Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy presented today to the Eurogroup follows the main German requests starting from sharing the "sacrifices" of governments with the banking system. The plan, in fact, provides for the contribution of 115 billion fresh, of which a substantial part, 50 billion over five years, will be paid by the banks. In fact, it is envisaged that a tax of 0,025% per annum will be applied to the assets of banking companies in the Eurozone.
The idea of using these funds for a buy-back program for outstanding Greek bonds seems to have been shelved for now. And there is discussion, according to rumors, about the characteristics of the "partial default" of Athens bonds. Perhaps, as anticipated during the night, holders of Hellenic bonds under 8 years will be asked to cancel them in exchange for thirty-year bonds with a reduced nominal value. Or the French thesis on “rollover” will prevail.
However, the statute of the EFSF (the fund saves Eurozone states) will be modified so as to allow the Fund to directly purchase Greek government bonds or other member countries in crisis on the secondary market. Another novelty: the ECB has allegedly undertaken to accept Greek government bonds as 'collateralì for the liquidity supplied to the banks, if they are guaranteed by the EFSF. It is an important step, but not sufficient, on the road to the birth of Eurobonds.
THE EURO AND THE EXCHANGES GO BOOM (MILAN +3,76%)
THE SPREAD WITH THE BUND DOWN TO 256
The advances, for now fragmentary, from Brussels, were sufficient to give wings to the share lists where the "shortists", who have been the masters in recent weeks, are closing their positions (with large profits). Once again Milan is leading the race, demonstrating the weight of speculation on a now "thin" price list. Piazza Affari, which in mid-morning was in sharp decline after the doubts expressed by Jean-Claude Juncker on the outcome of the summit, exploded upwards: +3,76, Ftse/Mib at 19.490.
The prospect of "almost zero" growth in the third quarter, forecast by the Confindustria Study Center, after the 1,6% increase in industrial production in the second quarter, concentrated in the first part of the period, is not news. gave rise to a temporary acceleration of the GDP. And yet, claims Confindustria, "Weakness in domestic demand, less strength in foreign demand, repercussions from the violent global financial turbulence and tightening of public finances are looming for Italy", adds the study centre.
But the euphoria of the square in Milan is echoed almost everywhere: London scores +1,97%, Paris +2,09%. The euro rallied sharply to 1,44 against the dollar after dropping to 1,4150 in the morning. The strong signal of Europe's willingness to commit itself to bailing out Greece is being felt on the government bond market. The yield of the BTP falls by 17 basis points to 5,40%, the spread with the Bund falls to 256 basis points. The yield on the German Bund rose 11 points to 2,87%.
ALSO TOAST WALL STREET
GOOD NEWS FROM THE SUPERINDEX
A bullish day also on Wall Street, influenced by good European news and better-than-expected macroeconomic data. The Dow Jones index rises by 1,2%, the S&P gains 1,3%, the Nasdaq rises by 1,1%. Economists were surprised by the growth of the Leading indicator, the so-called Superindex, an indicator that anticipates the trend of the economy over the next three months. The June index rose by 0,3%, against expectations of +0,2%. The Philadelphia Fed, a reliable thermometer of industrial activity on the East Coast, also came in better than expected, coming in at 3,2, against an average forecast of +2.
Finally, third but not least, the price of houses rose in May by 0,4% on the previous month, beating expectations by +0,1%. Smaller news is that initial jobless claims rose by 10.000 to 418.000, while the previous month's figure was revised up from 405.000 to 408.000. The indicator is higher than the estimates of analysts who had expected the number of applications to remain unchanged compared to the previous week.
SUPERSTAR BANKS: INTESA AND UNICREDIT FLY
LIOELLA STEPS BACK FROM FONSAI (+7,28%)
Despite the prospect of a euro-tax on banks, it was credit titles that led the bull run. Above all Intesa Sanpaolo (+9%) and Unicredit (+8%). Followed by Ubi +8,8%, Banca Mps +8,5% and Banco Popolare +7,8%. Generali rose by 4,4%. Sprint also for Fondiaria-Sai (+7,28%) a few hours after the official announcement of the news according to which Jonella Ligresti has renounced executive powers. Shooting also for the other title of the Ligresti Galaxy, Milano Assicurazioni (+7%). Yesterday the sale of the unexercised rights to the capital increase was successfully concluded for both companies while the Fitch agency "liberated" the two companies from the negative creditwatch (after the success of the capital increase operation) .
DIASORIN IN THE SPOTLIGHTS OF MORGAN STANLEY
ST-ERICSSON DISAPPOINTS: IN THE RED FOR 222 MILLION
Lottomatica runs +4,3%. Bank of America intervened on Lottomatica, raising the buy recommendation from neutral. Morgan Stanley has started hedging Diasorin (+2,35) with an overweight rating and a target price of €41,50. According to analysts, fears about competition in Vitamin D "are over". Experts note that the group is also well positioned in small emerging markets and has the resources to continue investing in areas of strategic interest, avoiding much of the competition. Goldman Sachs downgraded to sell from neutral Saras -1,5%.
A bad start, Stm closes with an increase of 1,6% to 6,43 euros, despite the bad results of ST-Ericsson, the joint venture between Stm and Ericsson, relating to the second quarter. In detail, the turnover was 385 million dollars and the operating result was equal to a loss of 222 million. The net loss is equal to 221 million dollars. At the beginning of the year, STM had said that the joint venture with Ericsson would break even by the end of 2011, now the goal is getting further and further away. Analysts are also disappointed by the forecasts of a turnover that will not grow in the third quarter.
