RENTI'S REDUCTIONS AT THE BUSINESS PLACE TEST. A RECORD AUCTION IS ANNOUNCED FOR BTPs
Piazza Affari is called this morning to give the first votes to the measures launched yesterday by the government. In particular, we await the response to the cut in Irap and the reactions to the increase in the taxation of financial income, excluding government bonds, which will rise to 26% from the current 20%. It is more difficult to assess the impact on the price list of the personal income tax relief (1.000 euros net per year) for 10 million Italians who earn less than 1.500 euros net per month, even if a shock to consumption and GDP, given the times, is not spoil.
Yesterday, after all, the Italian Stock Exchange performed better than the other European lists, limiting the decline to 0,25%, much less than the Eurostoxx 600 (-0,80%) and the other indices: Paris -1%. Frankfurt -1,3%, Madrid -0,8%.
But the real test will come mid-morning with the auction of medium-term government bonds for an amount between 6 and 7,75 billion for which rates are expected to reach new historic lows. In addition to the positive outcome of the Bot auction (7 billion 12-month bonds placed at the lowest yields ever), the success of the launch of the new 4,5-year indexed bond, issued for 10 billion, with orders that exceeded 10 billion euros. Another sign of normalisation, given that the last 2011-year Btpei was issued in August XNUMX, before the storm on the spread.
For today's offers (3,7, 15-year BTPs, plus the reopening of a bond maturing in 2037) the forecast is for a new yield cut: "We expect a 30-35 basis point reduction in yields for 3 and 7 years, and about 45 basis points for the 15 year (compared to the January auction)” said Unicredit strategist Chiara Cremonesi in a note. To complete the picture, however, there is a note of the opposite sign: under the pressure of the Ukrainian crisis, the German Bund rises again (the yield falls to 1,59%) and the spread widens again to 182 basis points.
ASIA BOUNCES, FISCHER AT THE FED
Asian stock markets rebound after Tuesday's crash. Tokyo rises by half a point, Shanghai does much better +1,16%. Premier Li Kequiang himself took the field to reassure the markets on the strength of the Chinese economy. “Growth – he said at the end of the party plenum – will be around 7,5%, but we will be flexible. The main objective remains the creation of jobs”. The call for flexibility was appreciated by the markets, resigned to registering new downward figures. The important thing is that the government demonstrates that it knows how to govern "gentle braking".
Few emotions in the American session: Dow Jones index (-0,07%) and S&P 500 (+0,03%) close to parity, Nasdaq up 0,37%. After initial declines to the Chinese situation, the market rallied after signs of progress in diplomatic efforts on Ukraine. The news comes from Washington. Stanley Fischer, appointed by Obama as vice president of the Fed, will appear before the Senate today. The economist, former professor of Ben Bernanke and Mario Draghi, will have an important role in the after-tapering.
BANKS, THE BULL LIKES CLEANLINESS
The markets like the spring cleaning of Italian banks. “If Italian institutions had adopted this type of budget cleanup a year ago, the reaction would have been very negative. Today, Italy is no longer a cause for alarm among foreign investors,” explains Mario Spreafico, head of private banking at Schroeders in Italy.
And so, after the positive test from Unicredit, the confirmations arrived yesterday:
Popular Bank di Milano +5,3%. The institute of Piazza Meda recorded a net profit of 29,6 million, compared to the loss of 429,7 million last year. the managing director, Giuseppe Castagna, during the conference call with the analysts underlined that Bpm is aiming for a common equity tier 1 by 2016 of 12%.
Fidentiis has raised its rating from hold to buy, setting the valuation range at 0,79-0,8 euros. Finally, the managing director, Giuseppe Castagna, underlined during the conference call with the analysts that Bpm is aiming for a common equity tier 1 by 2016 of 12%.
Where's Banca +4,7%. The institute ended 2013 with a net profit of 250,8 million, an increase compared to 82,7 million in 2012, with the board proposing a dividend of 0,06 euro per share to the shareholders' meeting.
MontePaschi +1,4%. The loss in the fourth quarter amounted to 920,7 million and in the presentation of the accounts, the institution announced that the pre-underwriting agreement relating to the 3 billion euro capital increase was renewed. However, what positively surprised the market were the interest margins and the decline in operating costs. The CEO Fabrizio Viola also stated that "after the cleaning carried out in the last balance sheet, the risk profile has dropped".
The pace of the big names is slower. Nomura proposed the switch from Intesa +0,3% (Neutral from Buy) to Unicredit +0,5% (Buy from Reduce. Understanding +0,3%: Nomura cut the recommendation to Neutral from Buy.
GENERALI, BETWEEN THE DIVIDEND
Among the dominant notes of today's session will be Generali's accounts +0,49% in a reflective market. While awaiting the numbers, Banca IMI has raised the target price of the stock to 19,35 euro from the previous 18,70, with rating add. Kepler Cheuvreux maintained the hold rating and the target price at €15,70 and Mediobanca Securities maintained the underperform valuation with the target price at €15.
ENEL SHOCKS UTILITIES
Great market support also from Enel +1,3%. The group ended 2013 with a net ordinary income of 3,119 billion, up 10,3% compared to 2,828 billion in 2012. It was decided to propose to the shareholders' meeting of 24 May (in single call) a dividend of 13 cents per share, against 15 cents in 2013. Eni E-0,7 Telecom Italy -1,6%.
BLACK JERSEY FOR TOD'S, WHISKEY GOES ACROSS CAMPARI
The echo of Chinese difficulties continues to be reflected in luxury. The strongest downside is by Tod's -5,1% after the disappointing indications on 2014, Ferragamo -2,8% Luxottica -1,6%, Cucinelli -1,8%. Also heavy Moncler -4,4% e Yoox -3,5%.
He misses out Campari -4% after a suspension due to excess downward deviation: the company, which presented its accounts yesterday, is among the entities that have presented an expression of interest for the acquisition of Whyte & Mackay, a whiskey producer it owns to United Spirits, a deal worth about 350 million pounds (about 420 million euros). Fiat -1%, World Duty Free -2,2% and Pirelli -2,7% were also weak.
MOODY'S PROMOTES ITALCEMENTI. SALT ERG, DEFLATED SARAS
Among the medium caps to note:
Erg it rose by 7,18% to 10,9 euro, benefiting from the positive accounts for 2013. Indeed, according to Equita Sim, the fourth quarter figures were better than expected thanks to the Power & Gas division. The experts also underlined that the net financial position improved by about 200 million. Falck Renew +3,4%. Moody's has placed Italcementi's ratings +4,5% under observation for a possible upgrade today'Ba3′. Sales instead deflated Igd -6%, Datalogic -5,8%, Saras -5,5%, Beni Stabili -4,3%.
