In 2018-2019, employment will continue to grow, as it did in 2017, with an intensity slightly lower than the GDP. However, the employment emergency for young people remains: "The issue of low youth employment is alarming, which, unlike in the past, is transformed into emigration". This is what was underlined by the Confindustria Study Center in the latest Economic Scenarios.
The contribution relief provided for by the Budget Law, according to the CSC, "go in the right direction because they stimulate the demand for work for the under 30s (under 35 in 2018) but a strengthening of activation policies is also urgently needed to bring more young people into the job market".
In any case, the labor market "is not the Cinderella of the recovery" and, at the end of 2019, the employed persons will be 370 thousand units beyond the peak of spring 2008.
GDP FORECASTS IMPROVE
The Confindustria Study Center confirms the growth of the Italian GDP at 1,5% in 2017 and raises it to 1,5% in 2018 (from +1,3%). For 2019 he estimates growth of 1,2%. However, "the distance from the pre-crisis peak remains large".
In 2019, according to the CsC, Italian GDP will have more than compensated for the fall recorded in the second recession (-4,5% between 2011 and 2013), but will still be 2,9% below the 2007 level. The full recovery it would happen in 2021, if growth – calculate the economists of Confindustria – continued at an average rate of 1% per year.
However, upside risks remain “linked in particular to a stronger restart of public investments and an improvement in credit to support private ones. Furthermore, exports could have a higher dynamic than expected thanks to Italian specialization".
GDP in the fourth quarter of this year should advance by another 0,4% (from +0,3% indicated three months ago), i.e. the same as in the third. The upward revision of a tenth "does not significantly change the change in GDP in 2017 but is almost entirely transmitted to next year's growth".
The greater dynamics of the Italian GDP narrows the growth differential with respect to the rest of the euro area, but by no means closes it: from 0,9 percentage points in 2017 it drops to 0,6 next year and rises again to 0,7 in 2019.
Going into detail, according to the economists of viale dell'Astronomia, consumption is expected to increase by 1,5% in 2017, by 1,3% in 2018 and by 1,1% in 2019. Inflation is estimated to gradually rise, compared to 0,9% in November, reaching an average of 1% in 2018 and 1,3% in 2019.
Investments are expanding robustly: +3,4% this year, +3,3% next and +2,4% in 2019. The start of the recovery of investments in construction is confirmed: +1,2% in 2017 , +2% in 2018 and +2,2% in 2019.
PUBLIC ACCOUNTS: THE RECOVERY CONTINUES, BUT REFORMS ARE NEEDED
As for the other public accounts, they continue along the path of recovery. The public deficit drops this year to 2,1% of GDP, from 2,5% and to 1,7% in 2018. It rises again to 1,9% in 2019. The CSC forecasts include the budget maneuver 2018 and exclude the safeguard clauses for 2019.
The public debt-to-GDP ratio is down: 131,6% this year (132,0% in 2016), 130,5% in 2018 and 129,6% in 2019. The composition of the economic package "supports growth". But it will be the task of the next legislature to "accelerate the path of reforms, to increase the country's growth potential and accelerate the reduction of public debt".
Italy "is hooked to the train of world growth and we don't see any risk of derailment - comments the director of the Confindustria Study Center, Luca Paolazzi - They count above all through exports and investments". Furthermore, according to the CSC, "there could be a surprise in the fourth quarter of 2017. We have estimated a +0,4% but a higher result is possible with a carry-over effect on 2018 which could lead next year's growth to +1,6 ,XNUMX%”.
INDUSTRY, ISTAT: IN OCTOBER +3,1% ON THE YEAR
In October, the seasonally adjusted index of industrial production recorded an increase of 0,5% compared to September. On average for the August-October quarter, production increased by 0,8% compared to the previous three months. The Istat detects it.
Corrected for calendar effects, in October the index increased in trend terms by 3,1% (there were 22 working days against 21 in October 2016). On average for the first ten months of the year, production increased by 2,9% compared to the same period of the previous year. The seasonally adjusted monthly index records positive cyclical changes in the energy sector (+1,7%), intermediate goods (+1,0%) and capital goods (+0,7%). On the other hand, there was no variation for consumer goods.
In trend terms, the indices corrected for calendar effects recorded a significant increase in October 2017 for capital goods (+5,2%); consumer goods (+3,5%) and intermediate goods (+3,2%) also increased, while the energy sector recorded a negative change (-4,0%).
As regards the sectors of economic activity, in October 2017 the sectors that recorded the greatest trend growth were those of the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products (+8,6%), of the other manufacturing industries, repair and installation of machinery and equipment (+8,3%) and the manufacture of means of transport (+8,1%); decreases were instead recorded in the sectors of mining (-7,9%), the supply of electricity, gas, steam and air (-5,4%) and the manufacture of computers, electronic and optical products, electromedical equipment, measuring devices and watches (-2,6%).
