It starts again under the effect of a turning point: the United States have voted a historic tax reform which, when fully implemented, could increase the profits of listed corporations by 6,5% (calculations by UBS). In this context, it will be understood from today whether the stock market is ready to respect the tradition of December, the most favorable month for Taurus.
The week begins in Asia with a slight drop in Tokyo's Nikkei index (-0,2%). Stock exchanges in China, on the other hand, rose: Hong Kong +0,7% thanks to the gains of Tencent (+2,7%), CSI 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen lists +0,7%.
Also on the rise was Mumbai (BSE Sensex index +0,2%) and Seoul (Kospi index +0,6% despite the new decline of Samsung -0,7%. Foxconn in Taiwan (-0,5%).
Contrasted the dollar traded at 1,189 against the euro. The yield on the 10-year Treasury Bill is around 2,40%, from 2,35% at the last closing, close to a fundamental graphic threshold. S&P index futures are up.
OIL LITTLE MOVED, NEW LUMP OF BITCOIN
It's resumed the Bitcoin rush, which rose to 11.270 dollars: on Sunday the Chicago Mercatile Exchange obtained the necessary authorizations to start trading on electronic money derivatives.
Oil slows down from the highs since 2015 marked last week: Brent trades at 63,38 dollars (against 64,65), Wti at 57,99 dollars.
Last Saturday Donald Trump, under fire for Russiagate, nevertheless won his parliamentary battle: the Senate approved (51 votes in favor 49) the tax reform which will now return to Congress for discounted ratification. It's the biggest change since Ronald Reagan. Thanks to this provision, companies and the richest taxpayers will save 1.400 trillion dollars in taxes over the next ten years, a river of money that will add up to the 20 trillion public debt. In particular, the corporate tax rate will drop from 35 to 22% (but Trump does not despair of being able to cut it down to 20%). The bet is to generate economic growth such as to compensate for the lower revenues, thanks to an acceleration of the GDP to at least 4% from the current 3,3%.
CVS-AETNA, TOWARDS A 68 BILLION WEDDING
On the business front, the week opens with an earthquake in the health sector: CVS, the most important US pharmacy chain (10 points of sale), has reached an agreement to acquire control of Aetna life, the third American company in the life, for 69 billion dollars. The operation is the sector's first response to Amazon's forthcoming entry into the medicines market, after the e-commerce giant received authorization from some states to sell pharma products.
MURDOCH-WALT DISNEY, BACK TO TREATMENT
Meanwhile, another “deal of the century” has returned to the news: the sale of a large part of the Murdoch empire to Walt Disney. According to the Financial Times, last weekend the teams of the two giants resumed the negotiations for the passage of XXI Century Fox, Sky and Star of India in a New York hotel on the basis of a value of 50 billion dollars. Also in this case the operation, far from easy due to the antitrust implications, is a response to the threat presented by the on demand services of Netflix and Amazon.
FED, NEAR RATE RISE
The approval of the tax reform changes the landscape of monetary policy one week from the last 2017 meeting of the Fed Board, the last one led by Janet Yellen, scheduled for December 13-14, in which a new increase of one will be decided quarter point of the discount rate. The reading of next Friday's labor market data is important in this light: the accuracy is 188.000 new jobs, a slight slowdown compared to 210.000 in October. The most awaited data concerns the wage trend and, consequently, the inflation prospects.
The flattening of the interest rate curve is dampening the enthusiasm, testifying that the market is skeptical about the prospects of the economy. Some perplexity, then, is justified by the stop to the deficit ceiling that could be imposed by the democratic opposition.
BREXIT CLOSER. THERESA MAY IN BRUSSELS TODAY7
Still on the front of central banks, it should be noted that this will be the last month in which the ECB will inject 60 billion into the market thanks to Quantitative Easing purchases. From January the figure will drop to 30 billion.
Great excitement on the pound ahead of Theresa May's visit to Brussels today, where she will meet Jean-Claude Juncker and Michel Barnier to settle open questions on Brexit ahead of the December 14-15 meeting.
EUROGROUP, THE NEW CHAIRMAN TODAY
Eurozone finance ministers will meet in Brussels today to elect the new president of the Eurogroup to replace Jeroem Djissembloem. The Portuguese Mario Centeno is favoured.
The most important macro appointment is tomorrow's publication of the PMI indices of the main economies of the Eurozone.
The spotlights are also on the Brussels court which today will have to rule on the Spanish request for the extradition of Carles Puidgemot, the governor of Catalonia on the run.
The central bank calendar is completed with the meeting of the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia on Wednesday. In both cases, the market does not foresee changes in interest rates.
Turkey's monetary situation is much more complicated. The pressure on the lira and the consequent increase in pressure on the external debt suggest an increase in interest rates, but President Erdogan does not want to hear about it: the board meeting, scheduled for December 14, represents a test of the (residual) independence of the central bank.
THE MANEUVER TO THE ROOM
In Italy, the economic maneuver that lands in Montecitorio holds the stage. From the passage to the Chamber, new filings could arrive to the text, left out of the first round of amendments. The goal is to close the process by December 19 to allow Palazzo Madama to give the final ok before Christmas.
Again on the parliamentary front, a new flurry of hearings in the Banking Committee. During the week, the commission of inquiry will hear the president of the four bridge banks, Roberto Nicastro, and the savers' associations of Carife, Banca Marche, Banca Etruria and Carichieti.
UNICREDIT SHAREHOLDERS' MEETING, THE FUTURE ON THE PIR IS LAUNCH
Today in Milan ordinary and extraordinary meeting of Unicredit. In the extraordinary session, the shareholders are called to decide on the abolition of the ceiling on voting rights, the conversion of savings bonds, the transfer of the registered office and, last but not least, the increase in the number of directors.
The calendar also foresees the debut of the listing of Aquafil on the Star segment. The Trentino group is a leader in the production of synthetic yarns. The Sias dividend (0,15 euro) will be detached today.
Trading on futures on the Pir Mid Cap Total Return index, which has as underlying 58 of the 60 most important medium-sized Italian companies by capitalization (excluding the 2 real estate companies in the basket), starts today on Borsa Italiana. The goal is to intercept the growing needs of the market in terms of individual savings plans and to build related instruments. The tool comes just at a time when the PIRs are enjoying enormous success among investors: 5,3 billion were invested in the PIRs in the first six months. In the meantime, the liquidity of FTSE Italia Small Cap securities increased, reaching a value of 136% in the first eight months of 0.
On the corporate front, the conclusion, on Wednesday 6, of the Carige capital increase should be noted.
FCA-HIUNDAY, STOCK EXCHANGE TEST FOR THE KOREAN ALLIANCE
Attention this morning to the reaction of Piazza Affari to the innovations announced by Sergio Marchionne on Saturday on the occasion of the official announcement of Alfa Romeo's return to the Formula 1 circus. Fiat Chrysler, said the CEO, has launched an industrial and technological collaboration with the Korean Hiunday .
”We already have a technical collaboration with Hyundai – he said – We already buy components from them, including transmissions that we use in America. Let's see if we can find other points of agreement, especially on the development of transmissions and hydrogen. There is nothing to announce."
The spin-off of Alfa Romeo and Maserati, on the other hand, "is a hypothesis far from what is feasible in the next few years, there are incredible speculations on this". The spin-off of Magneti Marelli, Marchionne added, is “a living idea, I would like to do it, but we haven't decided anything yet in the council. We can also sell a share, but the best thing would be to distribute it to the shareholders who deserve it", added the CEO, according to which "the important thing is to give it independence from us" and "the same thing goes for Comau, who has the ability to stand alone.”
TELECOM, THE NETWORK DOSSIER COMES TO LIFE
Important appointment tomorrow for Telecom Italia. The board of directors will not be decisive on the spin-off, but it certainly represents a step forward in that direction because a study will be presented which highlights the pros and cons of the operation. Genish, also during the last meeting with the Minister of Economic Development, Carlo Calenda, reiterated that the voluntary proposal for corporate separation of the Telecom Italia network, with subsequent listing, can take place without the former Italian monopolist losing control of it.
