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The population is ageing: fewer young people and more over 65s

FOCUS BNL – Reduced fertility and greater longevity are causing low growth in the world population and progressive aging – In 2050 young people under 14 will be only 21% while the percentage of over 65s will double

The population is ageing: fewer young people and more over 65s

Reduced fertility and greater longevity than in the past are leading to low growth in the world population and progressive ageing. The current increase in the planet's inhabitants (equal to 1,2%) should drop to +0,6% in the middle of the century and contribute to changing the age pyramid: on equal terms, in 2050 the share of young people above under 14s will drop from 26% in 2015 to 21%, that of 15-64 year olds from 66% to 63% while the percentage of over 65s will double, going from 8% to 16%.

According to the United Nations, the ratio between over-65s and 15-64s, now equal to 12,6% will reach 26%: in the middle of the century, for every four potentially active adults there will be one elderly person (today the ratio is 8 to one).

Population aging is shared worldwide, but in Europe the phenomenon is particularly accentuated due to the arrival of the baby-boomers at an advanced age. Compared to the world figure, in the Old Continent already in 2015 the share of under 14s was 10 pp lower (26 vs 16), while that of over 65s was similarly higher (8 vs 18).

The advancing age of the population poses multiple challenges: in addition to higher expenditure for pensions, health care and assistance, the progressive aging of active workers suggests lower total factor productivity. The International Monetary Fund has calculated that in the euro area the phenomenon has already reduced the annual rate of growth of productivity in the last ten years by 0,1 percentage points and in the next twenty the reduction could double.

In 2014, households in the euro area headed by a person aged 65-74 had an average net wealth of €286 thousand, lower only than the age group preceding them (55-64) which could count out of €319 thousand. The elderly French (325) and Italian (€289) families are particularly wealthy, while the Germans (€270) have a lower level of net wealth than the average value for the reference age group. Several studies suggest that more widespread financial education could help the elderly manage their real estate and financial resources.

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