The game doesn't change. None of the four central banks meeting between yesterday and this morning (the USA, Japan, Brazil and New Zealand) introduced any changes on the interest rate front. But the reactions of the markets have been quite different.
Satisfaction in the US: the Fed has not betrayed Wall Street. The US economy, according to the final communiqué after the meeting of the central bank's monetary committee, continues to improve, while the risk of contagion from China or other weak points in the global economy is reduced.
But the Federal Reserve believes that these data are not sufficient to restart the rise in the cost of money. Rates therefore remain unchanged and, according to general opinion, will not rise even at the meeting of the Central Bank on 14-15 June: inflation, in fact, remains below 2 per cent, and household consumption slows down despite the growth in employment.
So no surprises. That is the verdict most appreciated by the markets which reacted as follows: Dow Jones +0,28%, S&P +0,16%. The Nasdaq falls (-0,51%), weighed down by Apple's losses.
YEN + 11,5% SINCE JANUARY. NIKKEI THUD: -3,2%
Firm rates also in Tokyo. But in this case the Bank of Japan has betrayed the expectations of the markets. Here too the Central Bank, at the end of the monthly meeting, decided not to change the monetary policy: the rates remain negative together with the strong purchases of securities (80 billion yen per month). But traders expected more vigorous measures to curb the yen's run and fight inflation, which in the meantime has slipped to -0,3%, for the first time in negative territory for over two years. The choice of governor Haruhiko Kuroda has been interpreted as a sign of impotence.
Consequently, this morning the Japanese currency resumed its upward run: 108,24 against the dollar (+2,4%). On the other hand, the Stock Exchange fell sharply, rising before the surprise verdict of the Central Bank: one hour after the closing, the Nikkei index lost 3,2%. Shanghai slips down (-0,7%). Instead, Hong Kong (+0,5%) and Sydney (+0,8%) are on the rise.
APPLE KO, THE CROWN GOES TO FACEBOOK (+8%)
Janet Yellen's message helped the stock exchange absorb Apple's sharp fall (-7%) after the slowdown in revenues and profits in the first quarter. Even in June, you warn the Cupertino company, turnover and profits will fall, even more than expected by analysts: up to 43 billion euros against 50,5 at the end of March. In just one day, the value of the stock fell by 46 billion dollars.
More music for Facebook, the protagonist of an 8% jump after the Stock Exchange, on the wave of the brilliant figures of the quarter: revenues from the mobile app are flying, as is the use of videos on the social network. The company has been working on a new class of shares to protect Mark Zuckerberg's leadership.
FROM TOTAL TO EXXON, SUPERSTAR OILS. TOMORROW IT'S ENI'S TURN
Oil, still recovering, contributed to supporting the indices: Brent +2% to 46,7 dollars. Chevron stood out (+1%). Exxon's star also shines (+0,9%) to its highest level since May 2015: the oil giant reacted to the rating cut by S&P with an increase in the dividend from 0,73 to 0,75 dollars.
Oil stocks were also the best performers in Europe (Stoxx in the sector +1,8%). In evidence, after the good results Total (+2,8%). In Milan Eni rose by 0,9%. According to the consensus of analysts, the accounts for the quarter, scheduled for Friday, will record an adjusted operating profit of 217 million euro (-86% from 1,57 billion) and a negative adjusted net result of around 15 million (from a profit of 650 million in the first quarter of 2015). Thanks to the deconsolidation of Saipem (+1,8%), debt is in sharp decline: 11,8 billion against 15,1. Tenaris +1,8%.
MILAN +0,4%. GREECE DOESN'T SCARE THE EUROZONE
For once, while awaiting the decisions of the Fed, the European stock exchanges have not fallen into hibernation, thanks also to the quarterly data. Among others, the accounts of Deutsche Bank and Airbus are scheduled today. In the luxury spotlight on Hermès. The Paris Stock Exchange gained 0,5%, along with London and Madrid. Frankfurt +0,3%.
On the other hand, the lack of agreement between Greece (-2,5% the Stock Exchange, -7,5% the banks) and international creditors on additional austerity measures had no weight. Thus the extraordinary meeting of the Eurogroup scheduled for today has been postponed. The Monetary Fund "is making requests that go beyond the bailout plan - accuses Athens - and jeopardize the efforts made by the government and the European institutions".
In Milan, the Ftse Mib index rose by 0,43%, in line with the other stock exchanges on the Old Continent.
BTP AT AUCTION TODAY. DRAGONS ACCEPTS THE CHALLENGE AT THE BUNDESTAG
There is no shortage of tensions, but government bonds don't miss out. Yesterday the auction of six-month Treasury bonds recorded new record low yields: -0,172%, with demand exceeding ten billion. Today it will be the turn of medium-long term securities for an amount up to 7,75 billion. The reopening of the 5-year BTP is on the way together with the 2026-year June 2023. But the most onerous commitment concerns the new CctEu July 0,97, which yesterday marked prices in the XNUMX% area on the gray market.
Mario Draghi has accepted the Bundestag's invitation to defend the ultra-expansionary monetary policy in front of German parliamentarians. But in an interview with Bild, the banker warns that "any perception that the ECB's independence is under attack can upset businesses and consumers who could postpone investments and spending decisions that are good for growth and jobs".
STM SUPER, UNDER FIRE TELECOM. MEDIASET IN SWING
Among the quarterly reports of Piazza Affari, the performance of StM (+9,6%) deserves to be highlighted, all the more remarkable because it was achieved at the same time as the fall of Apple and a large part of the tech sector. The accounts for the first quarter (turnover of 1,61 billion dollars) are just below consensus expectations, but the market has appreciated management's indication of signs of business improvement, especially in the automotive segment. For the second quarter, the chipmaker expects revenue to grow by 5,5% while gross margin is expected to be around 34%.
On the contrary, Piazza Affari did not welcome the postponement of Telecom Italia's quarterly report at all: -2,6% after the announcement that the company had decided to carry out an in-depth analysis of the accounts following the entry of the new managing director, Flavio Cattaneo. The board of directors for the approval of the results will be held on May 13th. Meanwhile, yesterday the managing director of Vivendi, Arnaud De Puyfontaine, was appointed vice president without powers.
The market's response to the announcements coming from the Mediaset assembly was mixed, -1% after a multi-faceted session: the stock gained 3% with a maximum of 4,1260 euros (the highest price since mid-December) to then cancel all progress and close down at 3,9740 euros. In April, CEO Pier Silvio Berlusconi announced, advertising sales increased by 10% on the same month in 2015, bringing the growth since the beginning of the year (first four months) to +4,5%. The sale of Premium will generate a "nice capital gain" on the 2016 budget, Berlusconi said: "The difference between Premium's costs and revenues in recent years is 244 million - the CEO limited himself to saying - today we bring home 750 million with the sale to Vivendi, so you do the math”.
BANKS DISPUTED, MICCICHÈ LEAVES FROM INTESA MANAGEMENT
The credit sector has always been challenged. Intesa moved little, +0,08% on the day of the assembly which marked the end of the dual governance system. Giovanni Bazoli, from today president emeritus, has left his operational positions. CEO Carlo Messina confirmed “the commitment to pay 3 billion in dividends in 2016”. Gaetano Miccichè, who maintains his position in Banca Imi, leaves the general management of the institution: he will receive 2,8 million euros, of which 1,35 million "as consideration for the stipulation of a non-competition agreement".
Thumbs down from Berenbeg on the institute: According to the broker, the Bank's profits "are destined to disappoint expectations due to low interest rates, growing competition in the Italian banking sector and weak stock markets".
Down Unicredit (-2,1%), Ubi Banca unchanged, Banco Popolare -1,3%. Monte Paschi closes up 0,7%. The relief fund for the bondholders of the four bankrupt banks at the end of 2015 will almost triple the current budget of 100 million: credit institutions will have to take on the expansion of the resource endowment.
GENERALI TODAY AT THE ASSEMBLY. CALTAGIRONE: I BUY
Generali -0,6% on the eve of the shareholders' meeting. Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone has not ruled out a further increase in his stake in Generali, now around 3%. "The increase in the share depends on two things: on prices and on availability", said the businessman asked in Trieste yesterday on the eve of thecompany meeting of which he is vice president as well as the third largest shareholder. “I believe in the company, so much so that I have made a major investment to climb. We just exceeded 3%. Further rounding is not excluded,” he added.
BOUNCE FIAT CHRYSLER. BOOM FOR PININFARINA
Lastly, Fiat Chrysler's rebound (+1,7%) after yesterday's negative reception to the quarterly report should be noted. Yesterday the analysts of Exane Bnp Paribas raised the target price by 2% to 6,30 euros. The judgment remains neutral. Among the small caps, Pininfarina leapt by almost 20%. Finmeccanica +2,6%, Cnh Industrial +1,6%, Enel +1,3%, Snam +1,1%.
