US rates will rise, but only in December. It will be the last decision by Janet Yellen, judged "excellent" by President Donald Trump but who in February will leave the leadership of the Central Bank to Jerome "Jay" Powell, who will be officially designated today by the president, leaving for Japan. This is, in summary, the chronicle of a day full of events, including the accounts of Facebook (-1,7% after the Stock Exchange) and Tesla (-5% in the evening trading) which saw Wall Street, after the yet another record, to reduce earnings in the final, under the pressure of realizations on oil. The Eurozone did better, driven upwards by Frankfurt: European growth at the end of September was close to 2,4%, a result not seen for ten years. The emotions continue today, with the probable first increase in British rates of the decade: even on the monetary level, London is moving away from Europe.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange, +0,2% in the middle of the session, is starting to close the short week on positive ground (tomorrow will be a holiday in the Rising Sun). The Nikkei index, up 2% in the week, marks the highest since 1996. The Asia Pacific index has been at the top for ten years but Hong Kong (-0,2%) and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks ( -0,4%).
THE NEW CHAIRMAN OF THE FED WILL BE POWELL
In New York, the Dow Jones index closed with a slight increase +0,25%, S&P 500 +0,16%. Down the Nasdaq, -0,17%. The almost absolute certainty of a rate hike in December (98% of traders expect it) did not affect the dollar, which is currently weak against both the yen (113,91) and the euro (1,1654). The T-bond also fell to 2,361%. The yield curve is the flattest since 2007: the Fed has confirmed that the reduction of bonds on the balance sheet has begun, as planned.
“SOLID” ECONOMY, GROWING EMPLOYMENT
The American economy is "solid", despite the consequences of the hurricanes and the job market is strengthening. Thus the Fed statement at the end of the board meeting, confirming the next rate hike, the third in 2017. It will be Janet Yellen's swan song, dismissed albeit with the highest honors by Donald Trump. From February, Powell will be at the helm of the bank, who has always voted in agreement with the current president of the bank on the matter of the cost of money.
Supporting the optimism came data on employment in the private sector, which rose by 235.000 in October, the highest figure since March. The overall data, due out tomorrow, should signal an increase of more than 300 units. Worse than expected, however, the performance of the Ism index of the manufacturing sector, below expectations at 58,7 points in October against the 59,5 estimated. Despite this, it remains firmly above 50 points, a level that indicates expansion.
BUFFALOES WEIGH ON FACEBOOK, THUD OF TESLA
After the Stock Exchange, the quarterly report of Facebook was released (-1,7%): turnover was 10,33 billion dollars (9,84 billion estimates), but profits also rose (1,59 dollars per security, 31 cents more than estimates). On average in September there were 2,07 billion users of the social network a day (+16%). The decrease is justified by the fact that the company has anticipated that heavy investments will be needed to counter the spread of hoaxes and insults on the site involved, among other things, in the investigations into Russiagate.
Tesla loses ground (-5,04%) in the after hours after announcing heavier-than-expected losses (a red of $2,92 per stock) and confessing to having produced only 260 Model S cars against the goal of 1.500 units .
ESTEE LAUDER BREAKS CHINA
Estee Lauder's leap forward (+9,2%) after the quarterly report should be noted. Net income even grew by 45%, to 427 million, with net earnings per share at $1,21. Brand diversification and acceleration of the Chinese market were the main success factors according to CEO Fabrizio Freda.
SAIPEM BOOM, TODAY THE TENARIS ACCOUNTS
The oil sector was the brightest (+1,1%) but crude oil cooled down in the afternoon after the higher-than-estimated data on US inventories. The WTI reversed course, dropping 0,2% to 54,2 dollars a barrel. Brent fell to $60,63. Oil companies are growing strongly in Piazza Affari: Eni +1,28%, Saipem +5,27%, Tenaris +1,2%. The accounts for the quarter will be published this morning. Outside the main basket Saras (+2,71%), Maire Tecnimont (+1,28%) and Trevi (+0,97%).
BUSINESS PLACE TOWARDS 23 THOUSAND ALTITUDE, FRANKFURT RECORD
Record day for the European Stock Exchanges. Milan +0,87% slows down in the finale: the Ftse Mib index slips by a whisker below 23 (22.991), still on the levels of October 2015 After reaching 23.061 during the session, the highest since 20 August 2015. The Frankfurt Dax index rose by 1,8% to 13.470 points, a new all-time high thanks to Infineon (+4,16%), utilities and car manufacturers. The Paris Stock Exchange (+0,3%) rises to its highest level since 2007. Madrid retraces (-0,13%) after two days of rebound.
BRITAIN RATES RISE TODAY. SPREAD AT 144
London is also slightly negative. The euro-pound cross fell to its lowest since June. The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates today: macroeconomic data released this morning is consistent with the onset of the first monetary tightening in 10 years. Positive closure, even if below the maximum, for the Btp in a session with decidedly festive volumes.
In any case, the good momentum of the Italian paper is confirmed, on which the coverings triggered by the decisions of the ECB and by the improvement of the rating by S&P continue. The Btp/Bund spread closed at 144 points, after falling to 142 in the morning, the lowest since the end of October 2016. The Italian ten-year rate fluctuated between 1,82% and 1,79%. the minimum since January 3 last year. The 3-year yield also fell below 2,96% for the first time since June, with a session low of 13,75%. Great expectations for today's session, the busiest of the week for the euro area. France and Spain offer medium-long term securities for a total amount of up to XNUMX billion, including a Spanish ten-year index.
THE AGNELLI GROUP MAKES MILAN FLY. TODAY THE FERRARI ACCOUNTS
The Agnelli galaxy is still in the front row under the push of Cnh Industrial +2,55%, supported by better-than-expected quarterly results and by the increase in year-end targets. Fiat Chrysler also advanced (+2,09%) pending the data on sales for October. Exor+1,45%. New rise for Ferrari (+0,87%) who will announce the quarterly accounts today.
PIRELLI AND STM ON THE LAUNCHING RAMP
The fever does not subside for Stm: +1,88% to 20,60 euros. Waiting for Apple's accounts, the Italian-French jv benefits from the rally of Sony (+11% in Tokyo) and Samsung (+3,8% in Seoul after record accounts). Brilliant session also for Pirelli: +3,56%, at 6,99 euros. Return of generalized purchases on utilities: A2A +1,08%, Italgas +1,2%, Enel +1,13% and, among the mid caps, Acea +3,93% and Iren +2,2%.
S&P RAISES REPORT CARDS OF BANKS
Financials rose without enthusiasm: the basket of banks gained 0,12%. Standard & Poor's has revised its ratings on Italian banks following the increase in the Italy rating. The rating of Intesa Sanpaolo improved (-0,28%), BBB from BBB- for the long term and to A-2 from A-3 for the short term with a stable outlook, and Unicredit (+0,2%) , BBB long-term and A2 short-term, stable outlook.
Mediobanca (+1,38%, the best stock in the sector) was assigned a BBB rating from BBB- for the long term and A-2 from A-3 for the short term. The ratings of Ubi Banca and Credito Emiliano were confirmed (both BBB-/A-3, stable outlook).
Banco Bpm +0,5%: the exclusive negotiation period with Cattolica was extended to 9 November, up by 0,5%. The two groups seek an agreement in bancassurance. Among the few stocks in the red Banca Mps (-0,85%). Banca Intermobiliare still suffering (-3,24%).
Banca Carige shines (+2,44%) following the presentation of data for the first nine months of 2017: Unipol Sai could enter the capital, converting bonds or subscribing to the new shares of the recapitalisation. Brilliant Generali +1,73%.
Moncler did well among the blue chips (+1,39%). Yoox +0,25%. The lock up agreement (prohibition to sell shares) on the 22 million ordinary shares of Ynap (3,571% of the ordinary share capital) held by Alabbar Enterprises expired on 4 October. On the other hand, Campari (-1,24%) and Luxottica (-0,53%) were weak.
BRICK FEVER CONTINUES. GOOD TITLES SAILORS
Real estate continues to benefit from inclusion in the PIRs: Aedes +7,24%, Brioschi +5%, Risanamento (also at the center of news on the Santa Giulia front) +1,82% and Gabetti +5,6%. Sale Immsi (+12,5%) galvanized by the results and forecasts, published yesterday, of the subsidiary Intermarine. The recovery of the shipbuilding activity also rewards Fincantieri (+3,18%), while D'Amico (+5,7%) benefits from the relaunch of maritime transport.
