"We shouldn't take any new rate moves until we have clearer indications of where the global economy is going." Thus Robert Kaplan, president of the Dallas Fed, considered very close to the president Jerome Powell, who tonight, a few hours after the release of the data on the labor market, will participate in an eagerly awaited meeting with Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen. Apple's landslide, which precipitated after the profit warning for the decline in iPhone sales in China, could halt, if not reverse the central bank's strategy, so far oriented towards new increases. Also because, as Kevin Hassett, the White House economic adviser said, “the Apple case is not isolated. There are many companies that are experiencing a sharp decline in sales in China."
Donald Trump thus has two reasons to toast: the Fed hawks are in retreat, the negotiations with Beijing can restart from a stronger position. But the toast risks going sideways: the sharp drop in the stock market is still bad news for the tycoon, struggling with the democratic opposition.
SAFE PORTS: GOLD RECORD, J-BOND 10 Y -0,057%
Great, in short, is the confusion in the skies. And the markets react by accelerating the race towards "safe havens".
- Gold hit a new 7-month high at $1.297 an ounce.
- The race for other safe-haven assets is growing sharply: Japanese ten-year bonds traded this morning at -0,057%, the lowest since autumn 2016. The US ten-year bond slipped to 2,543%.
However, the expectation of a change of course in US monetary policy, as well as positive signals from China, are bringing some calm back to the stock markets. Futures signal a positive start for European lists.
- Tokyo closes the first session of 2019 with a sharp drop -2,26%, but recovering from the -4% at the start.
- The other Asian markets were positive. In China, the Shanghai-Shenzhen CSI 300 index gains 2,2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rises 1,8%. Seoul +0,8%, Mumbai +0,3%.
Surprisingly, China's Caixin/Markit Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to a six-month high of 53,9 points in December, up from 53,8 the previous month and well above the threshold of the 50,0 points that separates growth from contraction. In October, it had slipped to a 13-month low.
APPLE BURN MORE THAN 400 BILLION
- Wall Street will try to react after a creepy day. Apple, which capitalized at $1.120 trillion in August, fell to 676, also surpassed by Alphabet.
The losses of the indices were very heavy: Dow Jones -2,83%, S&P 500 -2,48%. The Nasdaq dropped 3,04%.
Historic operation on the pharma front. The world leader in anticancer drugs is born thanks to the purchase, for 74 billion dollars, of the biotech Celgene +20,7% by Bristol-Myers Squibb -13,3%.
Oil starts the fourth positive session in a row, Brent +1,2% at 56,60 dollars. Quotation on the highs for four weeks.
MILAN -61%, THE SPREAD RISES UP 275 POINTS
The poisoned apple has also hit Europe. But the fear that Chinese consumers will reduce their luxury purchases has contributed to slowing down share prices, in addition to the decline in the tech sector weighed down by Apple. Meanwhile, the race for the Bunds continues, which started after the end of the Qe purchases.
- In Milan -0,61% the index closed at 18.218 points. After a brief dip into positive territory thanks to US employment data, the stock returned negative in the wake of Wall Street's poor performance.
- The wave of sales also affected Frankfurt -1,49% and Paris -1,66%; damage limits Madrid, -0,3%; London loses 0,61%. Zurich, +0,42%, goes against the trend.
- Strong swings for the debt market. In the afternoon, the BTPs clearly widened their losses in a session with thin volumes which saw the Italy-Germany spread widen to the highest since mid-December, reaching 275 basis points (from 253 yesterday at the end).
- The 20-year rate has also risen by XNUMX basis points since yesterday's close.
- "The market correction is due to the sales flows triggered after the March futures fell below 127, amplified by the low volumes, and to the Spanish auctions", summarizes an operator of an Italian bank. Madrid has placed - at slightly decreasing rates - a total amount of 5 billion euros in the reopening of the Bonos 2021. 2023 and 2028, together with the 2033 bond indexed to inflation.
- The 2,88-year reference rate closed at 2,69% from 2,89% after going up to 2%, the highest for three months. The 0,58-year rate also rose sharply, leaping up to 0,45% from XNUMX% last year.
- The amount of Italian government bonds in the portfolio of banks based in the country continues to grow: 388,311 billion euros in November, the new highest since May 2017.
FRANA STM, ALSO SUFFERS LUXURY
Apple's warning also hit Piazza Affari hard. He paid the heaviest bill stm, a major supplier of the Apple which absorbs, according to estimates, 11% of its production. The stock closed the day with a drop of -11,7%, reaching its lowest since the beginning of 2017.
They also suffer Prysmian -4,76% and Leonardo -2,27% which, together with Fincantieri, is preparing to present the final offer for the 1,6 billion Brazilian order for the construction of four Tamandaré class corvettes.
Luxury is also down, fearing a slowdown in Chinese demand, as happened for smartphones. Heavy moncler-4,6% e Salvatore Ferragamo-2,6%.
It is not saved Ferrari-1,1%. fca closed at -1,2% after a brief jump when the data on sales in the United States were released, which recorded a 14% increase in December to 196.520 vehicles.
THE CARIGE EFFECT HOLDS BACK (BUT NOT TOO MUCH) THE BANKS
The banks seem to have absorbed, for now, the shock of Carige's receivership. However, the sector index fell by 0,7%, underperforming the European stoxx, which stopped at -0,25%.
Among the worst, Bpm bank -1,48% , Ubi-1,16% and Unicredit -1,41%, all three given as possible partners for an acquisition of Carige, which in turn is still suspended from negotiations.
Malacalza Investimenti, Carige's first shareholder, announced "that it expressly expressed" even after the meeting "its position in favor of approving the recapitalization (400 million), against the natural willingness of the Board to provide all shareholders the necessary information and evaluation elements useful to be able to consciously express oneself, and to be able to make decisions also with regard to the subscription of new shares".
Banca Ifis, which yesterday earned the 6,5%, detected by mps (-3,92%) a portfolio of NPL loans for a nominal value of €1,16 billion.
GOOD FOR UNIPOL AND CAMPARI
There was no lack of positive notes:
Good performance for Unipol, which exceeds +4%. Well too Unipolsai + 2,55%. Generali +0,3%. Leonardo Del Vecchio has risen to 4,07% of the share capital.
In recovery Telecom Italy +2% driven by the good performance of the Brazilian stock exchange. In the TLCs, the leap of Tiscali -17,7%
Also purchased the assets considered less risky: at the top of the list Campari +2,11%, utilities are in positive territory.
Among the minor titles it rips Stefanel +25% which continues the recovery after the lows reached in the last sessions of 2018.
