THE FED HOLDS THE MARKETS BACK, OIL IN FREE FALL. S&P CONFIRMS THE FCA RATING, FINMECCANICA IN THE STARS
Power of words. According to Joseph Hinsenrath, the journalist of The Wall Street Journal specialized in the scoop on the Fed, in the next press release from the US central bank at the end of the FOMC (set for 16-17 December) it will no longer say that it will take "considerable time" before the rate hike.
This signal of a possible tightening of monetary policy was enough to give a turnaround to share prices and currencies. Tokyo -0,4%, Hong Kong -0,8% and Sydney -1,5% slow down. The exception is Shanghai +1,2%, launched into an infinite rally: in the last four weeks the list has risen by 25%.
Strong correction on American markets: Dow Jones -0,59%. S&P -0,73% and Nasdaq down 0,84%. The dollar is close to its peak: 120,94 against the yen, 1,235 against the euro. The oil slide didn't stop this morning either: Brent at 66,12 dollars a barrel (-7 cents) after yesterday's beating, when prices fell by 4%.
Morgan Stanley believes that without an intervention by OPEC, the markets risk a serious imbalance, with a peak of overproduction probably in the second quarter of 2015, capable of pushing the price of Brent up to 43 dollars. The opinion of Kuwait's energy minister is different: crude oil will fluctuate around 65 dollars until June, barring a recovery in the economies of consuming countries.
PLAZA BARGAIN WITHSTANDS THE IMPACT OF DOWNGRADING
European stocks also started the week lower: the Stoxx 50 index dropped 0,6%, a modest retreat after Friday's 2,3% jump that took the blue-chip benchmark to its highest since July. The Ftse Mib index closed down by 0,68%. Standard & Poor's cut of Italy's debt rating did not cause significant damage either to Piazza Affari or on the debt front.
The 2-year bond, which returned briefly above 1,94% in the morning, closed at 124%, a new all-time low. The spread rose to 118 basis points from XNUMX at the close on Friday but above all due to the rise in the Bund, a safe haven asset par excellence, which benefited from further signs of an economic slowdown coming from China and Japan.
EU: QE WILL BE DONE, BUT NO DISCOUNTS ON THE FISCAL POLICY
"At this point, buying government bonds is an option to consider to address the massive deterioration of the eurozone economy." Word of Ewald Nowotny, Austrian central banker and adviser to the European Central Bank, who in the past anticipated changes in Frankfurt's monetary policy.
We are therefore back to talking about Quantitative Easing, after last week's false alarm. As a consequence, the euro travels to its lowest level for over two years, reaching a minimum of 1,2247 dollars. But while monetary policy is showing signs of moving, probably with a long delay, on the fiscal policy front there are no appreciable changes after Angela Merkel's harsh warning to Italy and France "to do more".
Eurozone finance ministers yesterday asked Italy to adopt "effective measures" to restore the 2015 structural deficit. in 2015 it will be 0,1% of GDP, while 0,5% of GDP is required according to the Stability and Growth Pact). On this basis, effective measures will be needed to allow for an improvement in structural effort."
ENI AT THE MINIMUM FOR 3 YEARS, TODAY THE SAIPEM BOD
The target practice on oil stocks continues. The European Stoxx index for the sector is down 2%. In Milan it sank Eni -3,3% slipped to 15 euros, the lowest in the last 3 years. Tenaris loses 2,5%. On the eve of tonight's board meeting, however, there is a timid rebound of Saipem +0,2% after last week's collapse. The revision of the objectives of the business plan for 2015 will be examined by the top management, at risk after Russia's decision to cancel the South Stream project with an impact of 1,25 billion in lost revenues for the subsidiary of the six-legged dog .
FCA, RATING B FOR THE CONVERTENDO
Stop on the price list FCA -1,7%, after readjusting the highs reached by Fiat in 2000 at the start. Sergio Marchionne's meetings in New York have concluded. The road show will continue today in Boston, tomorrow on the West Coast of the United States.
Meanwhile, yesterday Standard & Poor's decided to confirm the long-term 'BB-' rating with a stable outlook, assigning a 'B-' rating to the 2,5 billion dollar convertible bond that the group is about to place on the market.
According to the agency, both the bond and the sale of ordinary shares in the portfolio “support FCA's risk profile and therefore mitigate the risks of a downgrade. These risks would otherwise have increased given the negative operating cash flow, caused by the significant capital expenditures related to the 2018 business plan, in a weak operating environment in some markets such as Latin America".
FINMECCANICA IN THE TOP TEN OF THE EUROSTOXX 600
Finmeccanica remains at the highs for the period with a gain of 1,3%. The stock is back from five consecutive weeks on the rise, the last one closed with a 3,8% increase. The stock's performance since the beginning of the year is close to +50% and places Finmeccanica in eighth place in the Eurostoxx 600 index (+4,7% in the period).
Promotions are flooding, pending the reorganization of the business. Jp Morgan analysts raised the target price to 7,5 euros from 6 euros, confirming the Neutral rating. Deutsche Bank has also set a target of 7,50 euros, raising the rating to Hold from Sell. Also in evidence among the industrialists Prysmian up 0,8%: Barclays analysts raised the target price on the stock to 18 euros from 17 euros. Pirelli loses 1,7%.
BANKS, KBW PROMOTES ONLY INTESA
Banks, the companies potentially most penalized by the cut of the Italian debt rating by Standard & Poor's, are opposed. Unicredit it lost 0,9% despite Federico Ghizzoni speaking on Friday of a possible increase in the dividend. salt Understanding +1,5%: Keefe Bruyette raised his rating to Outperform from hold.
On positive ground too Where's Banca +1,34% and Banco Popolare, despite Kbw cutting Market Perform's rating from Outperform. The target price was reduced to 10,30 euros from 16 euros. Weak Monte Paschi -1,9%, Banca Popolare di Milano -0,4% and Bper -1,11%.
TOD'S PAYS FOR THE PRADA EFFECT
The step forward by should be noted in the rest of the price list Mediaset +1,46% and the slowdown of Telecom Italy –0,79%. in luxury, Tod’s -1,95% to 67,8 euros paid the price for lower-than-expected data Prada, yesterday in heavy braking (-8%) on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. This morning the title is unchanged.
