In anticipation of the central bankers' meeting in Jackson Hole, the most important event of the financial week, the markets unexpectedly issued a first, provisional opinion on the Italian crisis. In the space of an hour, yesterday afternoon, the ten-year BTP fell from a yield of 1,43% to 1,31%, the lowest level since October 2016. The spread, after reaching a maximum of 218 points he then significantly reduced his losses to close at 204 points, down from 208 points on the day before. All this took place simultaneously with the intervention of the outgoing premier Giuseppe Conte who officially kicked off the last act of the yellow-green executive.
TODAY THE GERMAN ZERO COUPON AT 30 YEARS OLD
Why did operators begin to buy BTPs with full hands coinciding with the start of a political phase marked by uncertainty? The market is betting on the hypothesis of an electoral or institutional government drafting a conservative budget law. In an increasingly zero-interest world, as confirmed this morning by the launch of a 30-year Bund with no coupon (i.e. the subscriber assumes that he will not receive a cent of interest between now and 2050) betting a chip on Italy continues to be a controlled risk option.
THE NEW GOVERNMENT WILL HAVE TO FIND SOON 30 BILLION
Even if the new government, whatever it is, will have to find at least 30 billion:. 27,6 billion are those already quantified by the Parliamentary Budget Office (UPB), necessary to guarantee the complete sterilization of the increases in VAT and excise duties (23,7 billion) and to face the financing of non-deferable expenses (almost 2-3 billion ) and those substantially obliged on the investment front. A "mission impossible" which can however count on an ally, as improbable as it is precious: the shadow of the recession, the ghost that disturbs Donald Trump's sleep ready for energetic interventions to avoid the slowdown, from cutting payroll taxes to measures that allow capital gains to be indexed to inflation. A river of money thus promises (or threatens) to invest the markets.
ALIBABA POSTPONES THE LANDING IN HONG KONG
Against this backdrop, the markets are heading towards an intense day, which will culminate in the publication of the Fed minutes:
- Asian stocks fell this morning, awaiting events. In the red, Tokyo's Nikkei -0,5% and Sydney's S&P ASX200 -0,8%.
- The Chinese squares moved little. Alibaba, the e-commerce giant listed on Wall Street, has postponed for now the move to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange already decided in response to Trump's tariffs.
- A climate of anticipation also for currencies: the yuan appreciated slightly, to 7,05 against the dollar, the Japanese yen slightly decreased, to 106,5.
- The euro has hardly moved from last Friday's levels, yesterday it gained 0,2%, this morning it is flat against the dollar at 1,109.
- Even if British politics contends the palm of uncertainty with Italy every day, the movements of the euro/sterling exchange rate are modest: this morning the British currency traded at 0,912.
BRAKE WALL STREET, WALT DISNEY TO THE NETFLIX ASSAULT
- While awaiting the indications of Jerome Powell, who will speak on Friday in Jackson Hole, financial stocks pushed the US markets down yesterday: Dow Jones -0,66%, S&P 500 . 0,79%, Nasdaq -0,68%.
- Netflix dropped sharply -3,4% under pressure from Walt Disney who announced the launch of the streaming service in Canada and the Netherlands.
- Down Facebook -1,3% which announced a new system of control of personal data by users. The EU antitrust has launched an investigation into Libra, the virtual currency of the social network.
- Home Depot up 4,4% after better-than-expected results.
- The oil rally. This morning North Sea Brent is trading at 60,4 dollars a barrel, + 0,4%, fourth consecutive day of increase. The American Petroleum Institute forecasts that US strategic reserves fell by 3,5 million barrels this week.
Gold closed yesterday up 0,7% at 1.507 dollars, reversed course overnight, returning to 1.502 dollars.
BUSINESS PLACE -1,11%, NEYMAR EFFECT ON JUVENTUS
Yesterday also the lists of the Old Continent were weak, anxious to receive news from Germany from which the launch of an investment plan is expected: Paris -0,5%; Madrid -1,22%; London -0,85%, Zurich -0,55%. Frankfurt -0,55
Yet another crazy day in Italian politics had a worthy sidekick in the erratic performance of Piazza Affari: -1,11% to 20.845 points after cutting losses during the incandescent parliamentary debate and then taking the path of decline in the last half hour.
The only blue chip to run in Piazza Affari was Juventus +2,6% pushed by rumors about the possible purchase of Neymar.
In the meantime, Confinvest's mad march continues +13%, despite the ban on purchases at unlimited prices. The stock has soared 1% since its Aug. 181 debut.
For the rest, the price list mainly records a series of decreases, starting with the banks: Bper Banca -3%, Ubi Banca -2,5%, Unicredit -2,2%. On the other hand, insurance companies were positive: Unipol +0,91%; Unipolsai +0,58%; Generals +0,28%.
The utilities suffer despite the stability of the spread: Italgas -2%, Enel -1,7%, A2A -1,2%. Atlantia down -2,8% and . Time -1,7%. Among the weak industrialists Leonardo -1,6%, Fiat Chrysler -0,8%, and Ferrari-1,7%. Pirelli -2,08%. Positive ground in the main Prysmian +1,2% and Brembo +0,1%
DELLA VALLE SALE IN TOD'S +8%, FUNDS AGAINST MEDIASET
Amplifon +2,88% and Ferragamo also did well. In luxury, Tod's +8% stands out: the Consob update shows that the share held by patron Diego Della Valle has risen to 81,19%, while Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec has reduced its stake to 2,2% from 5,16%.
Mediaset- 0,1% The ISS proxy adviser recommends that the shareholders of Mediaset and Mediaset Espana vote against the creation of the Media for Europe group, based in Amsterdam: the meetings are set for 4 September.
