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The stock market fears a double-dip recession and the ECB is not warming it up

The caution of the ECB on the economy in the first quarter and the resurgence of the pandemic keep the markets apprehensive. Bad banks and oil companies but luxury rises with Ferragamo

The stock market fears a double-dip recession and the ECB is not warming it up

 The risk of a double-dip recession due to the recrudescence of the pandemic alarms European lists, which start selling after the Christine Lagarde press conference and closed down. Piazza Affari loses 0,98% (22.428 points), penalized by some profit-taking and by oil companies and banks in decline. 

Frankfurt drops by 0,25%, Paris -0,67%, Madrid -0,99%, London -0,43%. Wall Street got off to a slow start after the previous record and is currently moving in opposition, with the Nasdaq making further progress. Apple earns 3,1%, while Morgan Stanley has announced that it expects a record December from the Cupertino company. The weekly requests for unemployment benefits are improving, lower than forecasts, even if very high. We also look at Congress and the anti-crisis aid plan, after the 1.900 billion dollar project presented by Joe Biden. "There is no time to lose" wrote the president in a tweet, on the day of the oath. Biden has also decided to tighten up the fight against the coronavirus and sets himself the goal of vaccinating 100 million people in 100 days.

The topic of vaccines also remains central in Europe, shaken in recent days by Pfizer delays (which promises to return to normal next week) and from the fear that the variants of the coronavirus will frustrate the efforts. Tonight at EU summit, by videoconference, the mobility of people within the EU will probably also be discussed.

The theme of fight against Covid 19 in the euro area it was also addressed today by the president of the ECB, after the meeting with which the European central bank confirmed its ultra-expansive policy.

The vaccination campaign "is an important step" to overcome the pandemic, said Lagarde, but Covid "continues to pose serious risks to the economy" and "a contraction in GDP is expected in the fourth quarter". The region appears to be headed for a double-dip recession,"uncertainty remains high” and economists are increasingly predicting that production will also decrease in this quarter due to the tightening of the restrictions decided by governments to combat infections. In any case, "our forecast for 2021 made in December, which was for growth of 3,9%, remains valid for the time being"

The ECB will continue with the pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP) with a total financial envelope of €1.850 trillion” and “will conduct net asset purchases under the PEPP until at least the end of March 2022 and, in any case, until the critical phase linked to the coronavirus is deemed concluded". 

"The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation continues to move towards the targeted level in a stable manner, in line with its commitment to symmetry."

In this context the Italian secondary closes in red: the spread with the German 118-year bond rises to 3,14 basis points (+0,65%) and the BTP rate rises to +XNUMX%.

The banks are suffering, recording declines up to the 1,75% limit of Bper.

The worst sector in Piazza Affari is the oil sector. The balance sheet for the session is heavy for Saipem -4,8%, Tenaris -3,21%, Eni -2,62%, despite the fact that Brent has not moved much and trades are around 56,06 dollars a barrel.

Leonardo suffers among the industrialists, -4,02%, after the leap on the eve. Utility in the red with Hera, -3,01%. Profit-taking also overshadows Stellantis, -2,17%.

It is confirmed well matched the luxury: Moncler +1,89%, thanks also to the effervescent seat of Ferragamo, +6,05%, on which the spotlights were turned back on after yesterday the brand's controlling holding communicated a change at the top with the departure of the historical manager Giuseppe Anichini and the entry of Claudio Costamagna. Movements that relaunch sales rumors and awaken speculative appetites.

Restarts the Diasorin run, +1,52%. Ferrari +0,83% and Campari +1,21% did well.

Out of the main basket Autogrill collapses, -13,32%, after the proposal to the shareholders of an option capital increase of up to 600 million to support future investments and seize any acquisition opportunities. 

On the currency market the euro rises against the dollar and is treated in area 1,21. The pound remains firm, against which the single currency confirms its slight decline. The change is around 0,885.

Bitcoin crashes, which loses more than 10% and is worth 31.362 dollars, while the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, attacks cryptocurrencies asking for a limitation by the regulators. According to Yellen, Bitcoin and other digital currencies are used “mainly to finance illegal activities”.

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