After years of optimism, the forecasts of the gurus are becoming more cautious. Michael Harnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, advises lightening equity and bond portfolios for 2022, ahead of a rate shock. It's time to set course on real estate and commodities. Jonathan Briggs of Goldman Sachs instead revises, albeit slightly, the forecasts for the stars and stripes economy: even if not by much, the Omicron variant will slow down the recovery of GDP, slowing down to 3,8% from 4,2% previously estimated. It is with these not comforting premises that the Stock Exchanges are starting the decisive tests for the start of the tapering after last Friday's disappointing data on the labor market. However, the markets are starting to open slightly, at least in Europe, in the hope that the Omicron variant will not overwhelm pre-Christmas consumption. Asian data is more mixed.
SEUL RISES, CHINA BUFFERS THE EVERGREAT CRISIS
Seoul's Kospi advances (+0,5%), now in its fourth rise in a row. The CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists also rose (+0,4%) supported by the announcement of new cuts to the compulsory reserves of the banks by the premier Li Ke Quiang.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng is in the red (-1,1%). The tech index loses 2,5%, to its lowest since the launch of the basket in July 2020. Alibaba (-4%) is undergoing a restructuring of its assets. The legendary Maggie Wu leaves the position of CFO after 15 years.
Evergrande collapses overnight (-11%), recovering this morning at -3%: installments of 260 million dollars are due.
Tokyo's Nikkei (-0,3%) and Mumbai's BSE Sensex (-0,4%) were also in the red.
NASDAQ FUTURES DATE, SPACE KING MUSK
A positive start is looming for Western stock exchanges. Wall Street futures rallied overnight: the S&P500 index is up 0,6%. The Nasdaq future is slightly above parity, also due to Friday's movements: last week the tech index closed down by 2,6%, much worse than the -1,2% of the S&P500 but much better than the - 3,9% of the Russell 2000 index, which entered correction territory as a result of the decline.
On Friday, large high-tech companies were heavily penalised, especially Tesla (-6,4%) and Nvidia (-4,4%). The European Space Agency has sounded the alarm: in the absence of an international agreement, the rules of spice are being made by Elon Musk, naturally to his own advantage.
WTI-type oil is up 2%, to $67,7 a barrel. Saudi Arabia has raised the price to its customers in Asia and the United States.
BITCOIN SINKS: -20% OVER THE WEEKEND
The 1,38-year Treasury Note weakens to 22%, the yield rises by four basis points. Smooth gold. But the less expansive attitude of the Federal Reserve, which officially canceled the term "transitional" with respect to the increase in prices, began to reap its first victims: over the weekend, Bitcoin fell by 41%, to $48. followed by other cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrency positions worth a billion dollars were liquidated over the weekend. This morning the cryptocurrency traded at 8 thousand dollars: from the highs reached on November 30, the loss is XNUMX%.
Meanwhile, the price list of small players, Russell 2000, suffers, down 7,4% following Jerome Powell's speech.
FITCH GIVES THE CHARGE TO THE BTP: FIRST PROMOTION FOR 20 YEARS
Piazza Affari will now be able to count on the boost of the promotion of a rating agency, an event as rare as it is welcome. On Friday evening, with the markets closed, the American Fitch raised Italy's report card from BBB- to BBB, with a stable outlook. The promotion, the agency's economists explained, is mainly due to the strong economic recovery, which had the effect of improving public finances starting from the deficit (seen at 8,9%) and debt (below 154% of GDP). An important support for our Btp at the start of a new hot week on the inflation front.
SOS INFLATION: FIRST THE NUMBERS THEN THE CHOICE OF THE FED
Wall Street is now awaiting the data on the (unusually high) US job turnover due out on Wednesday and, above all, the data on the consumer price index on Friday, i.e. only five days before the Federal Reserve board decides on the summit of 14/15 December whether or not the time has already come to start tapering, the reduction of purchases by the Central Bank. The forecast is that the price figure will rise to 6,7%, the highest since 1982.
The Fed won't be the only monetary authority meeting mid-month. The meeting of the Australian bank, the Canadian one and the Indian Reserve Bank is also foreseen. No rate decisions are expected, unlike the meeting of the Brazilian central bank, which is grappling with the slowdown in the economy, but also with the sharp rise in inflation.
EUROGRUPPO, WE TALK AGAIN ABOUT THE BANKING UNION
Other macroeconomic signals include the meeting of the Eurogroup in Brussels, which will be followed on Tuesday by the preliminary data on the GDP of the Eurozone. The meeting between the finance ministers will be dedicated to the resumption of work for the Banking Union, an issue shelved for months for the electoral campaign in Germany.
Istat will publish data on consumption trends. On the macroeconomic front, the focus is still on the inflation trend, with the US data expected for the weekend.
PEARL HARBOR: IT'S BEEN 80 YEARS
Data on orders from German industry are also awaited. Consumer price data from Germany is due out on Friday.
Two historic anniversaries are worth noting: the centenary of Ireland's independence (an opportunity to unblock the delicate confrontation between London and Paris, sided with Dublin); and, on Wednesday, XNUMX years since the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour.
THE MANEUVER MARATHON STARTS
In internal politics, the week will open with the examination of the more than 6.000 amendments to the maneuver presented in the Senate. Times are very short, given that the amended text released by the Budget Commission will have to arrive in the Chamber to be voted on and then pass through the Chamber for the second parliamentary passage. The final go-ahead must arrive by the end of the year.
IN WALL STREET THE X HOUR OF RIVIAN
On the corporate front, there is expectation on Wall Street for Rivian: the lock-up period on sales after the triumphant IPO of the electric car expires today.
Also to be followed are the accounts of Lululemon, the sportswear group that has recorded strong increases during the pandemic.
VIVENDI OPENS TO THE TRANSFER OF THE NETWORK TO THE STATE
Spotlight on Telecom today: Vivendi has opened up to the prospect of transfer of control of the network to the public partner, i.e. to the CDP. The French partner and the Italian public partner seem to agree on the no to the offer of private equity KKR, considered too low.
Tim's strategic committee led by chairman Salvatore Rossi should meet again today, which received expressions of interest from 18 financial advisors on Friday. The committee must mandate three banks of international standing (there is talk of a tender between Bofa, Barclays, Imi, Lazard and Rothschild) to evaluate future strategies and evaluate the offer from Kkr.
On December 17, Tim's last 2021 board of directors should approve the budget and decide whether or not to go ahead with the US fund, which asks to have access to the group's confidential numbers to do due diligence.
HERE COMES THE XNUMX-YEAR ORCEL PLAN
Increased attention in Piazza Affari also for the presentation of the new three-year industrial plan of Unicredit. The group, led by the managing director Andrea Orcel, is evaluating the reduction of 3.000 jobs from the current 80.000 through voluntary exits thanks to the 7-year slide provided for by the national category contract.
