The European Stock Exchanges regain confidence and close on the upside after an uncertain and nervous afternoon: the Ftse 100 rises by 0,41%, the Dax by 0,05%, the Cac by 0,41%. The Ftse Mib lengthens compared to the other lists, which records an increase of 0,69%, also benefiting from the approval of the maneuver by the president of the ECB.
The European stock markets triggered a reverse into negative territory in the early afternoon after the disappointing US macro data on employment and the intervention of ECB President Jean Claude Trichet who described a situation of "particularly high uncertainty" and "of risks for growth” leaving the cost of money unchanged at 1,5%. The ECB has cut its 2011 growth estimates between 1,4% and 1,8% (between 1,5% and 2,3% the 'range indicated in June) and that for 2012 between 0,4% and 2,2% (against the previous 0,6%-2,8%).
However, no indications have been received on the front of support for the purchase of Italian and Spanish government bonds. “As you know – Trichet replied to a question from the press – the ECB never makes any comment on the government bond purchase programme. You will see the figures every Monday when we publish the volumes on which we have worked”. In any case, the president of the ECB recalled in his speech, as on other occasions, that all support measures in favor of the banking system and of other types "are of a temporary nature". After climbing back to 343 basis points, the spread between BTPs and bunds returned to 340 basis points, slightly above the 332 this morning. The differential was also affected by the new rush to buy bunds which saw the yield drop to an all-time low of 1,8% during the day. The euro retraces below the 1,4 level to 1,398.
Meanwhile, on the Greek front the situation remains complex: “The situation in Greece is serious – said the German Finance Minister, Wolfang Schaeuble during a speech in Parliament – the mission of the troika is suspended. Until it confirms that Greece has complied with the conditions, the tranche of aid cannot be paid". We are now awaiting the outcome of the mission that Paul Thomsen, Matthias Mors and Claus Mazuch, representatives of the troika - International Monetary Fund, European Union and European Central Bank - will carry out in Athens next week to resume negotiations with the Greek government on structural reforms needed to restore the country's economy. But for Ilias Mosialos, spokesman for the Greek government, Greece does not risk saying goodbye to the Eurozone by reassuring that the Greek executive will resume talks with the troika inspectors next week.
EMPLOYMENT IS BAD IN WALL STREET
OBAMA'S EMPLOYMENT SPEECH WAITING
In the US, jobless claims increased by 2 to 414 against analysts' forecasts of a rise of 1000. The worst-than-expected data sent European stock markets into bearish territory while Wall Street started down. The US indices then regained momentum, also influencing the European markets and are now traveling in positive territory: the Dow Jones rises by 0,43% and the Nasdaq by 0,81% pending tonight's speech by Barack Obama on the plan for the jobs and growth from which cuts and stimuli of 300 billion dollars are expected. On the other hand, the US trade deficit improved, which in July decreased more than expected to 44,8 billion dollars from 51,6 billion dollars (revised figure) the previous month compared to economists' expectations of 51 billion. This is a drop of 13,1%, the largest since February 2009. Overseas, Microsoft is up 2,21%. According to FBR analysts, the group could raise the dividend to 0,18-0,2 dollars per share from 0,16 last year and could announce a new buyback programme.
THE MANEUVER GIVES SPRINT TO PIAZZA AFFARI
FOR THE OECD, ITALIAN GDP IN BRAKING
The Ftse Mib regains strength after Trichet's confirmation of the Italian maneuver: “I would like to underline – he said – that we have sent messages to the Italian government together with Mario Draghi. We saw the government's commitment, then a period of complex discussions followed. And the process is still ongoing. But the measures taken confirm something that was very important for the Governing Council of the ECB and that is a first commitment from the Italian government”. Also for the OECD the maneuver is going in the right direction with various measures such as the constitutional obligation to keep the budget in balance, the equalization of the retirement age for women and the abolition of the provinces. But the OECD launches a new alarm for Italian growth: in the third quarter the GDP will register a -0,1% and in the fourth a +1%. A trend worse than the average of the G7 countries which, in the same quarters, is estimated between +1,6% and +0,2%. Among the large European countries, Germany sees a GDP of +2,6% in the third quarter and -1,4% in the fourth quarter. The OECD data – released today with the Interim Assessment – measures growth on an annualized quarterly basis and the Paris organization reserves a margin of error of about one and a half percentage points.
CAMPARI AND UBI SHINE IN MILAN
ENI APPROVES THE INTERIM DIVIDEND
In Milan the banks are holding up: Ubi rises by 3,91%, Intesa Sanpaolo by 0,97%, after Corrado Passera confirmed the institute's plan yesterday, and Bpm by 0,83% awaiting the green light from Consob at the recapitalization. After the no to the postponement of Bankitalia's capital increase, Piazza Meda could now revise the amount downwards given the difficult market conditions. A decision which, together with the price and schedule of the operation, will be taken by the board on 13 September. At the moment the operation remains in departure for 19 September. The governance node is also on the table, with the hypothesis of the adoption of the dual system. Sale of 0,54 Unicredit. This morning the Libyan interim government announced that it has no plans to reduce its stake in Unicredit and the central bank will respect the licenses granted. Mediolanum also performed well (+2,47%) while Azimut recorded a decrease of 0,51% and Banca Generali closed with a positive result of 0,15%. After yesterday's crash against the market trend, Campari once again confirms the good trend of 2011 with a rise of 3,61%: the third best stock in the Fste Mib, after Bulgari and Lottomatica, with a performance of 16,22% from beginning of the year. Energy is also highlighted. Eni rises by 2,06%: today the group approved the distribution of an interim dividend of 2011 euro per share for 0,52. The coupon detachment will take place on September 19th while the proceeds will be paid from September 22nd. Enel Green Power also rose by 2,12% Stm rose by 2,57%.
TI, MODDY'S DEBT OUTLOOK IS NEGATIVE
MEDIOBANCA SIZE MEDIASET
Telecom Italia closed slightly up by 0,44% despite Moody's reducing the outlook on the rating from stable to negative, confirming its creditworthiness due to growing competition on the domestic market which would risk making it difficult to achieve the debt repayment targets. But the situation could improve in the second half of the year. Mediaset dropped 1,67% after Mediobanca cut its rating from neutral to outperform and revised its target price from €4,28 to €2,86 due to the rapid deterioration in the advertising market.
FIAT INDUSTRIAL IS OVERWEIGHT
FOR MORGAN STANLEY PIRELLI CONFIRMS THE TARGETS
Fiat Industrial closes up 1,59% The stock benefited from Morgan Stanley's decision to raise its recommendation to overweight from equal weight. Pirelli slips by 1,20% despite the fact that the president of Pirelli, Marco Tronchetti Provera, has confirmed the 2011 objectives for the group. It has also opened up for entry into the Indian market, but not right away.
