Istat will announce today, Thursday 31 January, Italy's entry into what economists call "technical recession”, an expression that is used when the GDP trend is negative for two consecutive quarters.
The Italian gross domestic product has already recorded a negative trend in the third quarter of 2018 (when it recorded -0,1% on an annual basis). Today the statistical institute will certify that the decline continued between October and December of last year.
"I expect further GDP contraction in the fourth quarter”, confirmed the Prime Minister, Giuseppe Conte, adding that “we must not turn our heads”, also because “the positive fact is that It does not depend on us: China, Germany, which is our leading country for exports” are slowing down.
After all, according to the head of government, "if we are struggling in the first few months of this year, there are all the elements to hope for a ransom, to restart with our enthusiasm, especially in the second semester, the IMF also says so. We have an economy that will grow, we must work together, design the tools to grow the economy in a robust and lasting way”.
Conte then referred to the difficult genesis of the 2019 Budget law: “With the maneuver we went a little further – he said – it brought us close to a dangerous area, but we managed to avoid an infringement procedure. That period is now behind us and now we need a period of experimentation that we have to deal with”.
The Economy Minister remains more optimistic, Giovanni Tria: “I wouldn't dramatize, even a negative figure in the fourth quarter I don't think it will change much for the Italian situation”, says the head of the Treasury from Washington.
As for the positive trend recorded by Italy at the latest government bond auctions, "I believe that our debt is a good deal - added Tria - It has good yields and is recognized as a safe debt, once the doubts about our European participation".
“Those of Palazzo Chigi sul Pil are infamous and ignorant statements,” said Pier Carlo Padoan, former Minister of the Economy, now a member of the Democratic Party in reference to what was stated by sources at Palazzo Chigi who, in the evening, had claimed that “our maneuver has only just begun. Therefore the possible negative data are the result of wicked economic policies of the past years and unfavorable economic data (see Germany)”.
“The data speak for themselves. The negative trend began with the new majority and with the impact of the spread” concluded Padoan.
