“In our opinion, Italy represents the greatest risk for the Eurozone today”. The opinion of Marco Stringa, senior economist at Deutsche Bank, is quite significant of the mood of the market which, however, has not yet translated into strong speculative currents. But Standard & Poor's diagnosis is clear: Italy is embroiled in a political stalemate, in a situation that could turn 2017 into a lost year as regards the reforms the country needs.
The situation in France is different, but not easier: polls show that Marie Le Pen continues to grow. Yesterday the spread between French bonds and German Bunds rose to 81 points (highest since August 2012) before returning to 77. The dam is holding up for now. This morning the PMI data arriving from the European economy could bring new oxygen to optimism, given the boost guaranteed by the purchases of Quantitative Easing. Only today, however, with the reopening of Wall Street, will the Stock Exchanges come back to deal with speculation.
CHINA AND KOREA AT HIGHEST, OIL RISES. ENI +0,9%
Dollar and oil moderately rising on Asian markets this morning. The euro slipped to 1,0588, the yen to 113,53. Stock markets benefited from this: Tokyo +0,4% against encouraging data on manufacturing activity. The Korean stock market (+1,1%) is at its highest level since mid-2015.
Rises also in Hong Kong (+0,4%) and on Chinese lists. The Shanghai Stock Exchange continues its upward march: +7% in the last month, even in the absence of purchase flows from abroad. The price/earnings ratio is still convenient: 19,7 times against 23 for the Sydney stock exchange and 25 for the Indian Stock Exchange.
Retrieve oil positions. This morning Brent rose by 0,6%, to 56,24 dollars a barrel, Wti at 53,71. Crude oil prices fell by 1,5% last week. In December, Saudi exports fell to 8,014 million barrels (against 8,258 million in November).
In Piazza Affari Eni shines, up 0,9%, while the other stocks linked to oil are contrasted: Saipem +0,2%, Tenaris -1%
FLAT MILAN, HIGHLIGHTS DEUTSCHE TELEKOM
TLCs and banks supported European lists yesterday, offsetting the negative effect of the withdrawal of Kraft's offer on Unilever (-7,8%). The PMI indices on the performance of the European manufacturing industry will be released today.
Start of the week with reduced volumes in Milan which closed at 18.979 points, down by 0,06%. The other price lists of the Old Continent contrasted: Paris down (-0,05%), while Frankfurt (+0,6%) and Madrid (+0,37%) rose. On parity London.
Frankfurt's performance is due to the leap of Deutsche Telekom (+3%), driven by the news of a possible merger in the USA between T-Mobil (controlled by the former German incumbent) and Sprint, manager controlled by the Japanese Softbank.
In London, Royal Bank of Scotland made a big leap (+6,84%) after abandoning the sale of the Williams & Glyn division.
As for Greece, "there is still a lot of work to do," said Jeroen Dijsselbloem, head of eurozone ministers after the meeting in Brussels. “There is no need for a disbursement in March, April or May,” he added. Athens needs to find new funds to pay off its debt by July.
THIN EXCHANGES FOR BTPs. AT AUCTION 2,5 BILLION CTZ
After a busy day, the Italian secondary finished almost flat, in line with the French paper. The yield differential between the BTP and the Bund on the 10-year segment and the 188-year reference rate are at the same levels as on Friday's closing, at 2,18 basis points and 196% respectively. In the early afternoon, however, the Italy-Germany spread shot up to XNUMX, the highest since last Monday.
The session was characterized by particularly thin volumes due to the closure of the US market but also by a brief but intense shower of sales in the early afternoon linked to the uncertainty about the political future of France.
The French ten-year bond closed slightly down with the yield at 1,057% after reaching 1,11%, while the France-Germany spread stood at 76 basis points, after reaching 85 basis points in the session, the highest since November 2012 On the back of fears related to the French presidential elections, the German Schatz rate fell to an all-time low of -0,853%.
Between mid-October and mid-February 2017, reports Standard & Poor's, the long-term sovereign bond rate grew especially in France (at the top for 4 years) and in Italy (+80 points). Worse than them is Portugal (+115 points), while in Spain performance has risen by 50 points and in Germany by 25.
During next Thursday's auction, the Treasury will offer between 2 and 2,5 billion euros in the fifth tranche of the CTZ maturing on December 28, 2018. A total of between 750 million and 1,25 billion will also be offered in the sixth tranche of the Btpei 15 May.
GENERALI, FOR LITTLE, THIRD SHAREHOLDER OF INTESA
Activity at a flicker in Piazza Affari except for some trading on bank stocks, which gained in the early stages, only to lose ground in the afternoon in line with Oat and Btp. Down Unicredit (-1,1%) which is about to close the capital increase on Thursday. Also down were Banco Bpm (-2,4%), Ubi (-0,7%, Fitch cut its rating to BBB- from BBB) and Bper Banca (-1%).
Stable Agreement (-0,1%) on the eve of the Board of Directors which, however, should not reserve surprises on the Generali front (-1,4%). The company holds 4,492% of the Bank, of which 1,085% as securities lending.
JEFFERIES PROMOTES TERNA. LEONARDO RADAR FOR SAFRAN
Telecom Italia -0,8%, in contrast with the European sector index. The stock did not react to the news that Tim withdrew from the second Infratel tender.
Positive Terna (+0,9%) after having disseminated the results of 2016, which closed with an Ebitda of 1,54 billion euros, in line with 2015. Jefferies confirmed the Buy judgment with a target price of 4,80 euros.
Industrial stocks are up: Fiat Chrysler +1,4%, Stm +2,1%, Brembo +0,8%. Leonardo was also positive (+0,4%). The company has announced that its PicoSar electronically scanned radar has been selected by Safran Electronics & Defense to equip the Patroller, the French Army's new tactical drone.
Atlantic -0.6%. Mediobanca analysts confirmed the Buy judgment on the stock with a target price set at 27 euros, estimating a 22% upside. New absolute record for Banca Ifis (+2,5% to 29,50 euro).
