In Piazza Affari Italcementi continues the phase of strong correction triggered by the political crisis and the violent clashes in Egypt where the group owns some of the most important plants in the North African country. Due to the lack of predictability of the evolution of the Egyptian crisis and considering the high exposure to the Egyptian market (about 18-20% of the group's EBITDA), analysts are revising their estimates.
At around 15 pm Italcementi lost 3,47% to 5,28 euro against a drop of 0,8% in the FTSE Mib index.
Credit Suisse cut the opinion on the group to "neutral" from "outperform" by reducing the target price to 5,90 from 6,80 euros.
"After the outbreak of violence in Egypt last week, we think it is difficult to rule out production disruptions due to increased insecurity," the Swiss business house said in a statement. Credit Suisse assumes, in the worst-case scenario, a 50% drop in volumes in Egypt in the second half due to safety problems in the plants and reduced energy availability, to be compared with the 15% drop recorded in the first six months. It also considers the absence of a recovery in 2014 (zero volume growth).
Under these assumptions, Egypt's Ebitda could fall by around 60% and 40% in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. Credit Suisse has therefore revised downwards by 5% its estimates on operating results for the entire group for 2014, even if remains positive on potential volume growth in Continental Europe.
