The Italian economy will continue to struggle in 2014 as well. This is certified by Istat, which in the "Prospects for the Italian economy for the years 2014-2016" forecasts that in the current year the gross domestic product of our country will register a drop of 0% in real terms. The estimate of the statistical institute, which revised downwards the previous forecast released in May (which spoke of GDP growth of 0,3%), is in line with that released by the Government at the end of September, in a document on the Economy and Finance.
As regards 2015, however, Istat expects GDP growth of 0,5%, slightly lower than the government's estimate, which speaks of an increase of 0,6%. The growth should then continue in 2016, settling at 1%.
Again according to the statistical institute, the Italian labor market is beginning to show "the first signs of stabilisation". In 2014, the unemployment rate will grow to 12,5%, to then drop to 12,4% in 2015 and 12,1% in 2016. This figure is affected by the high incidence of people looking for of one year, at 7,6%.
Wages will continue to show moderate growth over the period, at around 1%, also due to the public sector pay freeze.
Household consumption, on the other hand, is improving, with expenditures set to grow again in 2014 after three years of reduction: 0,3% "in real terms, partly as a result of a reduction in the propensity to save". The trend will continue also in 2015 (+0,6%) and in 2016 (+0,8%).
According to Istat, inflation will experience a gradual recovery starting from 2015: on average next year, inflation will still remain below 1%, after remaining at rates close to zero "even in the final months of the 2014, with average price levels for the year just above those of 2013”. In 2016 however, inflation should approach the fateful threshold of 2%, settling at 1,8%.
