The economic framework deteriorates and GDP falls. According to the Istat, Italy is growing less than previously expected. The Institute has therefore revised its growth estimates for the first quarter.
"In the first quarter of 2019 - reads the Istat note - the gross domestic product (GDP), expressed in chain-linked values with the reference year 2010, corrected for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, increased by 0,1% compared to the previous quarter and is decreased by 0,1% compared to the first quarter of 2018”. The downward trend in GDP in the first three months of the year interrupts 6 years of continuous positive changes. We haven't seen a year-on-year minus since the fourth quarter of 2013.
The estimate released on 30 April instead forecasted +0,2% for the cyclical change and +0,1% for the trend, ie compared to the previous three months. “The change acquired for 2019 is zero”, continues the Istat..
Istat also reviews the performance of other countries. The comparison with Italy is merciless: “in the first quarter, the GDP increased in quarterly terms by 0,8% in the United States, by 0,4% in Germany and by 0,3% in France. In trend terms, there was an increase of 3,2% in the United States, 0,7% in Germany and 1,2% in France. Overall, the GDP of the Euro area countries increased by 0,4% compared to the previous quarter and by 1,2% compared to the first quarter of 2018". Italy therefore confirms its position as the rear of the Eurozone.
One positive fact, however, comes from internal question, with all the main aggregates on the increase, “with a 0,2% growth in national final consumption and 0,6% in gross fixed investments.” Exports grew by 0,2%, while imports decreased by 1,5%”.
National demand net of inventories contributed +0,2 percentage points to GDP growth. The contribution of net foreign demand it was positive by 0,5 percentage points.
“The large positive contribution from net foreign demand reflects the marked decline in imports, against a limited increase in exports. On the domestic demand side, there was a slight positive contribution from both consumption and investments (in particular for the construction component), more than offset by the negative one from inventories”, comments Istat.
At the sectoral level agriculture (+2,9%) and industry (+0,9%) did well. The added value of services is down (-0,2%).
The institute also disseminated preliminary inflation estimates: "in May 2019, the national consumer price index for the whole community (NIC), gross of tobacco, recorded an increase of 0,1% on a monthly basis and 0,9% on an annual basis (it was +1,1% from the previous month)”. Core inflation, excluding energy and fresh food, and excluding energy only, both decelerated by a tenth of a point, respectively from +0,6% to +0,5% and from +0,7 .0,6% to +XNUMX%.
