Fewer and fewer children are born in Italy. It is certainly not new, but the speed with which births are down keep accelerating. In 2022, according to Istat demographic indicators, births fell for the first time since the unification of Italy, below the threshold of 400 units, to 393. Since 2008, the last year in which an increase in births was recorded, the decrease is around 184 births, of which around 27 concentrated from 2019 onwards.
The result is that Italy is becoming a Older country: 1 out of 4 Italians is at least 65 years old and the average age of the population has risen in three years from 45,7 to 46,4 years. The over 65s, which together account for 14 million 177 thousand individuals at the beginning of 2023, make up 24,1% of the total population against 23,8% the previous year. While individuals of active age are decreasing more and more: 15-64 year olds drop from 37 million 489 thousand (63,5%) to 37 million 339 thousand (63,4%), while children up to 14 years of age drop from 7 million 490 thousand (12,7%) to 7 million 334 thousand.
An increasingly worrying picture that seems to agree with last year's tweet Elon Musk: “If the trend continues like this, there will be no one left in Italy. The Bel Paese is heading towards extinction and not even the immigrants are able to compensate for the demographic decline”.
Fall in births: the causes
Among the causes, according to the Statistical Institute, there is only in part the renunciation of having children by couples but the dimensional decrease and the progressive aging of the female population in the ages conventionally considered reproductive (from 15 to 49 years).
Territorially, the decrease in the average number of children per woman concerns both Northern and Central Italy; in the South, on the other hand, a slight increase was recorded (with the average number of children per woman standing at 1,26). The region with the highest fertility is Trentino-Alto Adige (with a value equal to 1,51 children per woman), followed by Sicily and Campania. On the other hand, the process of aging of the population continues, despite the high number of deaths in the last three years, bringing the average age of the population from 45,7 years to 46,4 years. Over the past 20 years, the number of centenarians has tripled.
The migratory balance is not enough to compensate for the demographic decline
The resident population in Italy as of 1 January 2023, "in the light of the first provisional results, is 58 million and 851 thousand units, 179 thousand less than the previous year, for a reduction of 3%". The migratory balance net rises from +88 thousand in 2020 and +160 thousand in 2021 to +229 thousand in 2022 (with 361 thousand registrations from abroad and 132 thousand cancellations for abroad). The migratory balance does not compensate for the negative effect of the heavy balance of natural dynamics. The population of foreign citizens as of 1 January 2023 is 5 million and 50 thousand units, an increase of 20 thousand individuals (+3,9%) on the previous year. The incidence of foreign residents on the total population is 8,6%, a slight increase compared to 2022 (8,5%).
