The achievement ofIran nuclear deal and the consequent withdrawal of sanctions against Tehran could lead to an increase in Italian exports to the country almost 3 billion euros in the next 4 years (2015-2018). This is what we read in a report entitled "Iran, in pursuit of lost time" by the Sace Economic Studies Office.
However, this potential recovery in the short term remains “a marginal share compared to what was lost by the Italian system in the years in which the sanctions regime was in force – continues the analysis -. In fact, in the absence of sanctions, Italy could have accumulated higher exports for a value of approx 17 billion in the period 2006-2018. The most significant impact occurred at the end of 2011, when the tightening of sanctions brought down trade between Italy and Iran, which went from 7,2 to 1,6 billion euros in 2014.”.
Despite this fall, Italy remains among Tehran's main trading partners. Yet, according to Sace analysts, regaining the lost market shares will not be easy, considering that competitors such as China, India, Russia and Brazil have suffered far fewer constraints in recent years, gaining an important position within the country.
The study also points out that the sectors with the greatest opportunities to be seized will be the oil & gas, automotive, defence, transport, real estate and more generally the sectors linked to construction.
On the other hand, in addition to a number of important competitive advantages, Iran has “also a number of risks that Italian companies cannot and must not neglect - concludes Sace -, not least the system of sanctions that still remains in force".
Attachments: Iran, in pursuit of lost time.pdf
