To invest in the markets in 2019 caution will be needed, but there is no reason to indulge in pessimism. He supports it Alessandro Fugnoli, Kairos strategist, in his new video section "On the 4th floor", underlining that "to understand what will happen this year, it is necessary to understand what happened in 2018" and in particular in the last quarter, characterized by heavy declines. Fugnoli identifies four factors at the origin of the recent period of distrust.
The first is of order geopolitical: from the crisis in relations between the United States and China, with the specter of a return of protectionism on a global scale, to the European uncertainty linked to Brexit and the negotiation on the Italian budget maneuver.
Then there are the factors economic: the slowdown in growth around the world has been accompanied by a decline in expectations on the earnings of listed companies.
Thirdly, the changes that have occurred on the monetary side, with central banks – the Fed, the ECB and the BoJ – embarking on the normalization phase of their policies more aggressively.
It flies, i technical factors: after 10 years of increases, portfolios have found themselves on average with an excess of risky securities to dispose of.
"These factors combined and caused the very rapid drop in the last quarter", explains Fugnoli, adding however that 2019 "opened under the banner of greater balance".
The dialogue between the United States and China and the mending of relations between Italy and Europe have contributed decisively to this easing of the climate.
as to Fed, has proved to be more willing to understand the reasons for the market, therefore, according to Fugnoli, “a lot we will hardly see another rise in US rates in the first half of the year".
Sul technical plan, on the other hand, “the massive sales of the last quarter have led to much more balanced and in some cases even underweight portfolios, so we have a boost from this point of view as well”.
For Fugnoli, therefore, this year it will be possible to invest constructively, but in the knowledge that we are heading towards a slowdown. In particular, the analyst recommends “take advantage of recoveries, which are quite possible, to structurally lighten wallets”. Volatility will not be lacking, but, Fugnoli reassures, "the overall stability of the economic cycle is beyond question". In the end, for bonds "2019 will certainly be less difficult than 2018".
