With the ECB meeting closed, central banks are still at the center of attention. But with something new: the markets are looking to the Bank of Japan meeting on Thursday rather than the decisions of the FOMC, the monetary policy arm of the Fed scheduled for Wednesday. Barring highly improbable surprises, in fact, US rates will remain unchanged.
There is great expectation, however, for the Japanese choices. The negative interest rate policy has so far served neither to stop the revaluation of the yen nor to restart investments. At this point, it cannot be ruled out that Governor Kuroda will take an extreme step: loans to businesses at negative interest rates, to stimulate employment. That is, another step towards “helicopter money”, the extreme weapon of monetary policy. In any case, markets assume that the central bank will not sit idly by on currency speculation this time around.
ASIA AND OIL DOWN. UNKNOWN DEBT ON CHINA
This morning, meanwhile, the yen advanced to new highs (111,14 against the dollar) while the Tokyo Stock Exchange slowed down (-0,7%). Hong Kong (-0,7%) and the Chinese Stock Exchanges were also weak: Shanghai -0,6%. Australia closed. A downward start for oil: Brent -1,3% to 44,60, Wti -1,1% to 43,17. In the last week, prices recorded an increase of approximately 4%, benefiting from the drop in US crude oil production to its lowest levels in the last 10 years and from signs of good stability in the Chinese economy.
In March, demand in China for reinforcing bars rose by 5%, after several months of consecutive declines. But the uncertainty of the debt, now equal to 237% of GDP, hangs over Beijing's recovery, a burden that limits the authorities' possibilities for intervention. The deputy governor of the central bank, Chen Yulu, announced measures to "strengthen financial stability".
GREECE ON THE EUROPEAN AGENDA. RECORD POPULISTS IN AUSTRIA
The euro moved little at 1,1245 against the dollar (-0,2%) in view of a week full of macro and corporate events. The success of Norbert Hufer's right wing in Austria is destined to weigh heavily, above all on a psychological level: a new stiffening of Wolfgang Schaeuble on the various EU dossiers is foreseeable. Yesterday evening Barack Obama and Angela Merkel agreed on their willingness to ask for negotiations on the TTIP trade treaty within the year.
Today the US president meets Matteo Renzi together with the premiers of France, Germany, United Kingdom The new Eurogroup convened with the aim of reaching an agreement on aid to Greece stands out on the European agenda for the week. The discussion on the relief of the Greek debt will start immediately afterwards, considered the keystone of the entire rescue operation both by the Athens government and by the International Monetary Fund.
There are other macro appointments of interest for the markets: today the German Ifo index will be announced, Thursday it will be European confidence, Friday there will be data on inflation and unemployment.
TREASURY AUCTIONS UNDERWAY, BANK OF ITALY'S SHAREHOLDERS' MEETING ON 28TH
Historical novelty for the Bank of Italy. The budget meeting in via Nazionale will be held next Thursday 28 April, a good month before the traditional date of 31 May. The advance was made necessary by the need to adapt to the needs of the ECB to quickly collect the economic data of the central banks of the Eurosystem. But the final considerations, orphaned by the assembly, will be held on the traditional date.
Government bonds are chasing new negative records. The achievement could be the new German thirty year anniversary offered on Wednesday on the markets. In the meantime, the Italian Treasury faces month-end auctions: the key appointment will fall on Thursday 28 April when between 6,25 and 7,75 billion Ccteu and 5 and 10-year BTPs will be offered. On Wednesday, 6 billion six-month BOTs (same quantity maturing) will be auctioned.
APPLE ACCOUNTS TONIGHT. GENERALS IN ASSEMBLY THURSDAY
In the spotlight are corporate accounts, both in Europe and in the USA. It's a week full of appointments for corporate America: 186 companies in the S&P 500 index are called to approve the quarterly reports. At the center of attention, already tonight, Apple, returning from a contrasted season (also due to the tug of war with the FBI). Wednesday it's Facebook's turn. Also highlighted are the final balances of the big oil companies, after the price swings of the last period. The European notebook is no less crowded. Great expectations, in particular, for the numbers of Deutsche Bank and Volkswagen.
Italy is no exception. Among the appointments worth noting are the shareholders' meetings of Mediaset (Wednesday), Finmeccanica and Generali (both on Thursday) and Saipem (Friday). The quarterly reports of Cnh Industrial (which will pay the dividend today), Eni, Tenaris and Stm are also expected.
AGREEMENT TURN THE PAGE. BPM TOWARDS THE WEDDING
Among the most important events, the assembly of Intesa SanPaolo stands out, which on Wednesday will close the dual governance, with the appointment of Gian Maria Gros Pietro as president and the designation as honorary president of Giovanni Bazoli.
The banking sector is still the focus of attention, following last week's rally. The European Stoxx index for the sector rose by 5% also thanks to the boost from Italian banks: Monte Paschi +13,5%, Mediobanca +11,1% and Ubi +7,6%. Meanwhile, reforms are advancing: the capital increase of Popolare Vicenza continues, favored by the parachute of the Atlante fund. Spotlights turned on Saturday on the Popolare di Milano shareholders' meeting, a decisive stage for the merger with Banco Popolare.
FCA WITHDRAWS 1,1 MILLION CARS. THE SECTOR UNDER FIRE AGAIN
Particular attention will be paid on Tuesday to Fiat Chrysler's quarterly report, which closed the week with a flattering gain of 7,5% despite the setback on Friday (-2,3%). The braking came before the news that FCA will have to recall 1,1 million vehicles (most of them in the US) due to transmission defects that have caused numerous accidents. Another bad news comes from Germany: over the weekend Bild Am Sonntag published that, according to the authorities across the Rhine, even Fiat is not exempt from Dieselgate-type irregularities.
Last week the automotive sector was among the brightest (+3,7% the Stoxx index) mainly thanks to Volkswagen (+14%), after the agreement reached in America on compensation payable to motorists. But in the sights of the US administration it is over in the meantime Daimler (-5,1% on Friday).
BUSINESS PLACE RECOVERS BUT REMAINS IN THE RED: -12,7% SINCE JANUARY
Finally a positive balance for Piazza Affari: in the last five days the index has grown by 2,3%. It is the second consecutive week of increase, which allows Piazza Affari to reduce the loss since the beginning of the year to -12,7%. The other European Stock Exchanges were also positive: the Frankfurt Dax index rose by 3,1% during the week. The negative balance since the beginning of the year is reduced to -3,5%. The overall index of the Stoxx 600 European Stock Exchanges shows a weekly increase of 1,5%: from January 4,8 the loss amounts to XNUMX%.
