There was no end of the financial world. And there won't be, pace of Cassandras who have dominated the scene in recent years. Words from Gianni Tamburi who, in view of next week's meeting with the families of the investor shareholders in Tip, is preparing a report frescoed by the covers of the most authoritative newspapers, The Economist ahead. “It goes by Is it really the end? – She comments leafing through the papers – a Acropolis now. And so on. A year ago, in September, one of the richest men in Italy, seated around this table, said to me: Dear Tamburi, I have given orders to my manager to sell everything”. The result? “I will tell my shareholders. A year ago I gave up on our meeting because I didn't have solid arguments to oppose the rampant pessimism. But since then we at Tip have made investments of 350 million. Crazy stuff? Maybe, but we're making money: the companies we participate in had a record 2011 and I have good reasons to think that they are heading to close 2012 with a plus sign”.
Thus speaks the number one of Tip, the merchant bank of the fourth capitalism, which brings together in its portfolio about twenty investments in companies of excellence, from Prysman to De Longhi, from Amplifon to Diasorin and so on. Many sectors, a single model: growing business, strong exposure to exports, a company boss (manager, shareholder or both) with a precise mission.
But now ? In the US, the tax cliff, China remains unknown. Not to mention Europe...
“I'm not a political scientist, but one thing seems certain: the US is on the mend. China, i.e. the second largest economy on the planet, is traveling at an abundant 7 percent growth. Measures have been taken everywhere, see Ltro and OMT in Europe, Quantitative Easing in the USA intended to favor a smooth transition”.
What kind of transition?
“There is too much debt in the world. An aggressive monetary policy that will make itself felt on inflation in a year's time is a therapy that has already been used in the past. A therapy that can be successful if accompanied by a recovery of productivity”.
The consequence?
“I foresee a gigantic shift of resources from the bond market to the equity market, probably the most important phenomenon of the next few years.
The crisis shows no sign of ending. On the contrary, the latest data on GDP at minus 2,3% forces us to update the forecasts downwards. He does not believe?
“In 2013 the GDP will still be negative even if I agree with Mario Monti: in the second half of the year the picture will improve. But too much importance should not be attached to GDP. Even robbery in Regions and Provinces contributes to increase the GDP…”.
Or?
“That is, the Italian GDP has been drugged for decades by debts that have artificially raised the level of income. Today the wheel has turned. But not for everyone in the same way: Italy is full of healthy companies, competitive on an international level”.
What has changed compared to a year ago?
“The Monti government has done a lot. Maybe he could have done more, but I don't hide the difficulties of the enterprise. Now we need to attack the knot of public, regional utilities. municipal or provincial it doesn't matter. The productivity gain can be enormous. I was very impressed by the presentation by Davide Serra, whom I don't know, at the meeting with Renzi: how can Italian companies compete if they pay 23% more for energy than the competition?”.
Meanwhile, the raw material for the equity race is missing: shares. Do you think Piazza Affari can be enlarged?
“Frankly, I don't believe in it. Indeed, the rule requires freshmen to arrive only in markets that are good. I don't think that the equity trend mainly comes from the stock market”. If anything, the merger season has already begun for months. Healthy companies buy those most affected by the crisis”.
In which sectors?
“A bit like the whole manufacturing sector. An interesting trend concerns technology: the liveliest companies are those that have accumulated the most research and development over the years”.
