Italian manufacturing will lose 15% of its turnover in 2020, but this time the crisis will be less severe than that of 2009, and indeed already in 2024 the pre-Covid levels will be exceeded, thanks to the expansion of global demand (and therefore of our export). This is the summary of the picture that emerged from the Report on the industrial sectors presented in May by Intesa Sanpaolo and Prometeia, while the president of Confindustria, Carlo Bonomi, warns that there is the risk of losing one million jobs.
“The crisis – however Prometeia and Intesa Sanpaolo explain – will have impacts on manufacturing profitability, but less intense than in 2009. In fact, to date, the productive fabric is strengthened compared to the past, in terms of liquidity and capitalisation, and therefore potentially more resilient. Furthermore, the measures adopted to support businesses will be effective in preventing any imbalances from spilling over into the supply chains, damaging the weakest links in the value chain”.
The recovery, which will already begin in 2021 with a significant expected rebound, equal to +5,3%, will therefore constitute an opportunity for the transformation and modernization of our production fabric, provided however that we accelerate the innovation and digitization processes already underway as part of the transition to 4.0, which according to the assessments of the economists of Prometeia and Intesa Sanpaolo will reinvigorate the investment cycle. Green technologies will also play a key role, in the light of the path already started especially in the automotive sector and the indications outlined at the community level. “New growth opportunities – explains the note – could come from one greater regionalization of value chains, which will see a strengthening of the European production platforms, where Italian companies will be able to count on a good competitive level to conquer spaces”.
In fact, the great game of recovery for our industries is being played on exports, taking advantage of world demand, which will show a profile of progressive improvement which, according to the Report's estimates, in 2024 it will lead to 8.7% exceeding pre-Covid levels (at constant prices). The greater dynamism of international trade will primarily favor the Mechanics, a leading sector of Italian industry, with visible effects also on the overall exports of manufactured goods and on the trade balance: at the end of the forecast horizon we will be able to position ourselves almost 5 percentage points above the 2019 export levels. In fact, the international crisis could accelerate near-shoring processes which were already starting up for some sectors.
Intesa Sanpaolo and Prometeia explain this step well: "The need to guarantee supply cycles even in the event of new epidemic phenomena could lead to a review of the supplier pool and the reference geographic markets, with a view to limiting the risks connected to a fragmented production on a global scale. From this scenario, in which investments will be made to strengthen the continental production platforms, competitive advantages could derive for some manufacturing sectors, with a gain in market shares, especially in those sectors where competition from Asian producers is more intense”. Among these are Mechanics, but also the sectors producing intermediate goods (eg metal, rubber and plastic and the wood-paper supply chain), and the fashion system.
Overcoming the health crisis will bring back also consumption at pre-Covid levels in the horizon to 2024, but the experience gained during the health emergency phase will push towards permanent changes in household spending preferences, such as a high level of attention to personal/household hygiene and healthcare, which will be grafted onto structural trends in the search for well-being and of demographic ageing. Strengthening the value of the home as a place to live will lead to a increased expenditure on home comfort (furniture and electronic goods, to support smart working, distance learning, home entertainment). The context outlined here is the backdrop for a recovery in the consumer goods-producing sectors (Fast Consumer Goods, Furniture, Fashion System), which however will continue to be affected by a less driving foreign channel than the pre-crisis one, due to the strong pressure competitive.
Returning to the forecasts for 2020, the only sector not to fall will be Pharmaceuticals (+4,2% expected), while food and beverages (-4.4%), FMCG (-10.1%), Others will decrease intermediates (-11.8%), electronics (-13.4%), building materials and products (-13.7%), electrical engineering (-14%), metal products (-16%), metallurgy (-16.7%), chemical intermediates (-15%), Mechanics (-18.8%), Cars and motorbikes (-25.9%), Furniture (-15.4%), Fashion System (-18.6%) and Appliances (-22.1%).
