It's not over yet, but Joe Biden is one step away from the goal. The Democratic candidate has so far secured 264 electoral votes out of the 270 needed to be proclaimed president of the United States. He is ahead in Arizona and Nevada, passed the president in Michigan and should have narrowly conquered Wisconsin, where there will be a recount. Trump, without having any proof, claims that there was fraud: «Last night I was ahead, often firmly, in many key states. Then, one by one, the benefits magically disappeared. Very strange". But the tycoon doesn't seem able to show evidence. For now, the street protests are contained. And the financial markets are advancing almost everywhere.
The MSCI Asia Pacific index, which excludes Japan, was up 1,3% this morning, an increase that brings it to its highest level since February 2018.
ASIA CELEBRATES, ALSO RECOVERS ALIBABA
Biden's expansion (“sleepy Joe”, according to Trump) was greeted by the rise in Hong Kong's Hang Seng (+2,7%), in which Alibaba recovered (+5% from -7% yesterday after the stop to the listing of Ant Group).
The CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists marks +1,1%, the Tokyo Nikkei +1,3% (high in the last nine months); Kospi of Seoul +1,8%, BSE Sensex of Mumbai +1,4%.
The US markets welcomed the succession of data and declarations of the most contested electoral challenge with a robust (and perhaps surprising) rise. The Dow Jones index rose 1,34%. The S&P 500 (+2,20%, at the end of the best session since 5 June) and the Nasdaq (+3,85%, the most brilliant performance since 14 April) performed better.
FACEBOOK (+8%) HOPES FOR A CLEMENT CONGRESS
The prospect of a Congress that is too weak to impose stricter rules on the big names in technology, especially social networks, has given wings to Facebook (+8%) and triple A (Apple, Amazon and Alphabet), up 4% .
Wall Street futures are all positive this morning. Contracts on the European indices and on the City also rose.
BONDS ARE APPRECIATED, TRUCE FOR OIL
Bonds also appreciate, sold because expectations of a new plan of maxi-aid to the economy based on the increase in public spending are reduced.
On the day of the Federal Reserve announcements, the 0,73-year Treasury Note continues to rise and its yield consequently falls, to XNUMX%.
Brent oil stops this morning, down 2%, at 40,4 dollars a barrel,
THE BLUE WAVE WASN'T THERE: A BRAKE FOR PUBLIC EXPENDITURE
The outcome of the vote contradicts the adage “the winner takes it all”. There was no blue wave in favor of the Democrats, which reduces the weight of the left wing of the party (Bernie Sanders, Elisabeth Warren and the very popular Alexandria Ocasio Cortez), the most feared by Wall Street. Democrats also failed in perhaps the most important goal: winning a majority in the Senate. Compromises will be needed on all the most delicate issues, from subsidies to taxes, which the market does not mind, also because it reevaluates the role of an old parliamentary fox, Biden himself, with respect to more radical choices in terms of public spending.
INITIAL FEAR, THEN EUROPE TAKES FLIGHT
There was no blue wave. On the other hand, at least for now the climate of the US Stock Exchanges is calm; indeed, even euphoric. And so, after a downward start, the European stock exchanges accelerate, thus completing the collage of bad figures of pollsters and gurus. The former have failed, just like four years ago, anticipating an unchallenged dominance that didn't exist. The latter anticipated, in the event of a sprint finish, white-hot disputes of which, fortunately, there are few traces. And so investors were able to find clear hints of optimism both in the price list and in the macro signals. The Eurozone shows signs of stagnation in the fourth quarter, but lower than expected: the PMI index relating to the services sector contracted for the third month in a row, pending the closure of the cities.
MILAN +1,9%, PARIS AT THE TOP, BITCOIN ALSO RISES
After the negative start, Milan took flight: the Ftse Mib index recorded a progress of 1,96%, to 19.358 points, after fluctuating between a minimum of 18.577 and a maximum of 19.395 points.
The other price lists are also racing: Paris is at the top (+2,44%), ahead of Frankfurt (+1,95) and London (+1,63%). Madrid, on the other hand, remains in the queue (+0,47%).
Among the protagonists also Bitcoin, which rose to 14.000 dollars.
SPREAD FALLS TO 130, TREASURE BUYBACK FRIDAY
The bond market also improved during the session as Biden's recovery gained momentum.
The indications of the ECB contributed to the recovery. Isabel Schnabel, a German member of the institute, said this afternoon that Frankfurt should not take calm on the bond market for granted as the euro zone economy deteriorates and requires fresh monetary stimulus.
The Italian 0,66-year rate stands at 0,70%, from XNUMX% at the previous closing.
The yield differential between Italy and Germany on the ten-year stretch is 130 basis points, up from 132. The Treasury announced a buyback for Friday 6 November on five securities maturing in 2021, 2022 and 2023 for 7 billion.
"It was a new demonstration of how difficult it is to predict the outcome of the elections," commented independent analyst Andrea Di Gaetano. "The feared uncertainty of the outcome is not worrying investors, who are eyeing the next fiscal stimulus."
RUN UNDERSTANDING. MESSINA: READY TO RECOVER THE DIVIDEND
At the center of Piazza Affari's attention was Intesa Sanpaolo's quarterly, which did not disappoint expectations. The institute closes the January-September 2020 period with a net profit of 6,38 billion euros. The stock rallied 3,71% against a 1,47% decline in the European banking Stoxx index, allowing Intesa Sanpaolo to re-overtake Banco Sandander as second largest bank in the euro area by capitalisation.
For the quarter, net income is in line with forecasts, at 507 million euros, with positive trends in the two core businesses, net interest income and fees. In light of the results, CEO Messina said the bank is one of the best positioned to resume dividend distribution, once the European Central Bank has granted its authorisation.
UNICREDIT ACCOUNTS THIS MORNING. ACCELERATE NEXI
The board of directors of Unicredit was also held (+2,31%), which will announce the accounts for the quarter this morning. Fitch confirmed the BBB- rating.
Nexi's rally continues (+6,5%), best stock of the day followed by Italgas (+3,59%). Poste Italiane advances (+3%).
FERRARI IN THE RALLY. GREEN ENERGY RISES: ENEL +2%, ERG +3,5%
Ferrari's race continued (+2,29% after the jump on the eve, +7%). The opinions of analysts fueled the Bull: In particular, Credit Suisse and Ubi Banca increased the target price on Ferrari, bringing it respectively to 206 euros and 195 euros. Suffers Pirelli (-4%). Lengthens Diasorin (+3,7%). Money on Enel (+2%) and Eni (+1,2%). Instead, Saipem suffers (-1,37%). Among renewables, the rebound of Erg (+3,51%) should be noted.
