Market activity warms up immediately after the holiday break. US President Donald Trump has decided not to renew, at the beginning of May, the exemptions for imports of Tehran crude oil for China, Japan, Turkey, India and South Korea. The measure also affects Italy. This was announced by the White House, explaining that the decision "aims to eliminate Iranian oil exports, denying the regime its main source of revenue".
OIL AT THE TOP, ENI IN THE SPOTLIGHT
The move sent oil prices soaring to six-month highs. At the Nymex, the WTI rose by 2,81%, to 65,80 dollars a barrel; Brent gains 3,21%, to 74,28 dollars a barrel; previously it had reached +3,3%, the highest since November.
On Wall Street, the energy index rose by 2,1% thanks to the rise in crude oil. The ruble this morning was at its highest level for more than a year.
Chinese stock exchanges were also down this morning, Shanghai -0,4%: already on Friday the market was frightened by the intention to target shadow banks again, an action to clean up which the market regards with suspicion.
The other Asian markets rose slightly.
RAIN OF COUPONS, WAITING FOR THE MAGNETI MARELLI BONUS
Harvest of dividends today in Piazza Affari. About fifteen stocks will come off their coupons, including quite a few companies in the main basket. Of particular note is the return to the dividend of Fiat Chrysler, with a decidedly interesting yield, also because the group will also detach an extraordinary coupon in the coming months linked to the sale of Magneti Marelli.
Coupon arriving also for other companies: in addition to the already mentioned FCA (0,65, or 4,42%, destined to rise to 13,3% if one takes into account the extraordinary coupon linked to Magneti Marelli), the dividends of Campari (0,05 euro), Cnh Industrial (0,18 euro), Fineco Bank (0,303 euro), Ferrari (1,03 euro), Recordati (0,47 euro) and Unicredit (0,27 euro).
Eni and Stm board meetings will be held during the week. Spotlight on the Salini Impregilo meeting on Wednesday.
WALL STREET MOVES LITTLE, TOMORROW TEST FOR BOEING
No less intense is the calendar of the other squares, starting with Wall Street, which is now at the center of the quarterly campaign.
In the meantime, indices almost flat: Dow Jones -0,18%, S&P 500 +0,10%, Nasdaq +0,22%.
Hostilities were opened yesterday by Tesla (-3,7%) which today presents the new autonomous driving systems for its cars at its headquarters in Palo Alto. But the event was preceded by the fire of a Model 3 parked in Shanghai and the "sell" of Ellinghost.
Boeing's accounts are under scrutiny on Wednesday: two institutional shareholders are preparing to ask for the resignation of the board after the consequences on the accounts and orders of the accidents at the 737 Max.
Great expectations for Amazon's profits: record numbers are looming for both e-commerce and cloud activity. On the catwalk, numerous Big accounts. Today it's Microsoft's turn, followed this week, among others, by Lockheed, Coca-Cola, Twitter, eBay, Harley Davidson, Ford, At&t, Caterpillar, Microsoft, Visa, Facebook, Intel, Starbucks, Exxon and Chevron.
TODAY THE SAVE-ROME, FRIDAY US GDP
On the economic front in Italy, barring surprises, today the Growth decree should be approved, which has long remained hung up on the rules on reimbursements to savers defrauded by banks and Salva-Roma. For both measures it seems that an agreement has been reached between Lega and Cinque Stelle. The instability of Rome will be avoided by extending the concessions to other Municipalities in the same conditions.
Analysts scrutinized a series of macro data including, on Friday, the announcement of US GDP accounts for the first quarter. Growth of around 2,1% is expected, conditioned by the effect of the long public administration lockout, even the White House is betting on 3%. But in March, the economy returned to full capacity thanks to the rally in consumption, at its highest level in 18 months. The data on construction activity and consumer confidence should also be followed in the USA.
In Europe, the most relevant data concerns the Ifo, the German confidence index.
FED, WITHDRAWS TRUMP CANDIDATE
The game of the new leaders of the most powerful central banks is in full swing. In the US, a bitter duel is looming between Donald Trump's candidates for the Fed and a fierce opposition from Congress, including not a few Republicans. Herman Cain, formerly of the "Godfather's pizza", withdrew from the race due to the no of many Republicans. Trump has taken note of this.
In the Eurozone, maneuvers have now begun in view of the appointment of Mario Draghi's successor. Meanwhile the picture of the other institutes is moving.
The heads of the Bank of Japan will meet during the week (no changes to rates are expected), the Bank of Canada (rates unchanged at 1,75%, despite the slowdown in the economy), the Swedish Central Bank (cost of borrowing at -0,25%, watch out for inflation) and Russia and Ukraine (again rates unchanged at 7,75% for Moscow). The focus is on Turkey, in the throes of a currency crisis. The Central Bank has no room to let its guard down: rates at 24% despite Erdogan's wrath.
WE VOTE IN SPAIN. DUEL FOR MODS IN INDIA
A week also full of diplomatic meetings and electoral appointments after the holidays. On the geopolitical agenda, Sunday's general elections in Spain stand out, the first test of a large country awaiting the European vote on May 26.
Voting will also take place in Uttar Pradesh, one of the key appointments of the interminable Indian electoral season: Smriti Irani, Prime Minister Modi's right-hand man, and the challenger Rahul Gandhi, leader of the Congress party, will face each other.
Spotlights on Shinzo Abe's visit to Brussels, on the occasion of the summit with the EU. We will not only talk about trade, but also about intellectual property and environmental agreements. The Japanese premier will then continue to Washington to meet Donald Trump on Friday: in addition to trade, there will be talks of North Korea. Meanwhile, Kim, the Korean dictator, will meet for the first time with Vladimir Putin, who will continue from Vladovostok to China, where he will participate in the Forum on the Silk Road, chaired by Xi Jingping.
The week will end with a display of Beijing's naval power: military maneuvers in the Yellow Sea, one of the hottest points in the dispute for control of trade routes, will involve observers from more than sixty countries alongside the Chinese fleet. den1\lsdunhi
