Oil, but not only. The agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia on crude oil production levels for 2018 has provided the markets with the necessary energy for a new, extraordinary leap forward which, however, is accompanied by more than one doubt as to whether growth will hold up. Yesterday, a day of historical records for the stock exchanges, Ford announced the cut of ten percent of the workforce in North America and Asia to counteract the decline in profits. But the boat goes, in spite of the hackers and Donald Trump's new stumbles, guilty of having revealed last week to Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov information on Isis arriving from an allied country, thus putting at risk, according to the Washington Post, the source.
Meanwhile, the Wanna Cry threat, the rogue software that put 300.000 computer systems in over 150 countries in crisis, is losing strength. But new viruses are emerging, even more dangerous, able to exploit the "holes" of the Microsoft operating system. And the hypothesis is making its way that the Chief of the Pirates is the number one villain: North Korea. According to Symantec, there are great affinities between Wanna Cry and previous raids against Sony (guilty of producing a comedy film ridiculing Kim), and the central banks of Bangladesh and Poland attributed to Pyongyang. Meanwhile, Europe, until a few weeks ago a potential area of crisis, today appears to be the happy island on which to converge capital disappointed by Trump's failed revolution.
TOKYO CLOSE TO 20 THOUSAND POINTS. INDIA TO NEW HIGHS
In this somewhat surreal and somewhat dangerous setting, the bull race continues. Tokyo is starting this morning to close one step away from the wall of 20 points. The Nikkei index (+0,5%) rose to 19.973,27 points, the highest since 1 December 2015, before slowing down to 19,901.
China's stock markets are down slightly this morning, while the summit of 29 heads of state (Premier Paolo Gentiloni was present) nears its conclusion, in which Beijing presented its colossal five-year plan worth 78 billion dollars. Hong Kong loses 0,2% and Shanghai 0,3%. New all-time highs also for the Indian stock market: BSE Sensex index +0,4%.
MORGAN STANLEY BRAKES TESLA. SYMANTE FLY THANKS TO HACKERS
Even on Wall Street, the main propellant of bulls was oil. But the contribution of the excellent quarterly results ($75 beat estimates) and the boost from the technology sector also count. At the close, the Nasdaq (+0,46% to 6.149,67) and the Standard & Poor's 500 (+0,48% to 2.402,32) set new absolute records. The Dow Jones index rose 0,41%. In great evidence Symantec (+3,15%), leader of security systems in cyberspace.
The decline of Tesla (-2,75%) should be noted. It is the effect of the judgment of Adam Jonas, the Morgan Stanley analyst who has so far been an enthusiastic supporter of the electric car company. Jonas has decided to cut the recommendation from Overweight to Equal-weight. Target price unchanged at $305, below the current price level ($315,88).
Jonas is concerned about the rate at which the group continues to burn cash. Specifically, Morgan Stanley estimates operating losses of $3,1 billion for this year, above the $2,3 billion reported forecast. The analyst also expects the group to be attacked by big tech companies such as Alphabet and Apple, who are experimenting with self-driving systems.
OIL, RUSSIA AND ARABIA REUSE DRAGHI'S WARNING
The rise in oil prices was the most important element of the day. Brent rose by 2,4% (52 dollars a barrel), Wti at 48,85. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al Falih and his Russian colleague Alexander Novak resorted to the "do whatever it takes" launched by Mario Draghi in defense of the euro to announce not only the extension until March 2018 of the agreement on production, but also the commitment to eliminate surplus stocks which affect the market.
Buoyed by the movement in raw materials, sector stocks rose almost everywhere. Chevron closed up 1,2%. Exxon +0,88%. In Piazza Affari Eni gained 0,7%, Saipem +1,4%, Tenaris +2,1%.
EU, MACRON AND MERKEL OPEN TO TREATY REFORMS
Important day for Eurozone politics. Angela Merkel, after the clear electoral affirmation on Sunday in North Rhine-Wastphalia, is more than ever favored in the elections next autumn. Emmanuel Macron, before leaving for Berlin for his first official mission as president, appointed the moderate Edouard Philippe, mayor of Le Havre, former spokesman for Alain Juppé, as prime minister.
"We want to develop a road map for Europe: we need less bureaucracy and more protection for citizens," he said in the press conference following the meeting with the chancellor. “From the German point of view – said Angela Merkel – it is possible to change the treaties if needed".
MILAN +12,8% IN 2017. TODAY THE GDP OF THE FIRST QUARTER
Positive closure for the European Stock Exchanges, which in the last part of the trading received the boost from the good performance of Wall Street. This morning at 10 the preliminary reading of the Italian GDP for the first quarter is published: economists expect an increase of 0,2% compared to the last three months of 2016.
Milan was the best stock exchange with a 0,6% rise in the FtseMib index to 21.704 points. Piazza Affari thus consolidated its second place in Europe in 2017 with a performance of 12,8%, behind only the Spanish Stock Exchange (+17.1%). An increase of 0,2% (+11,3% from January 12.807st) was sufficient in Frankfurt to establish a new all-time high for the Dax index at 0,2 points. Paris and London +XNUMX%.
In March, in Italy, general government debt amounted to 2.260,3 billion, an increase of 20,1 billion compared to the previous month. Inflation rises: the consumer price index recorded a change of 0,4% on month and 1,9% on year (revised from +0,3%, +1,8%).
BTP ITALIA RAISES €1,615 BILLION IN THE FIRST DAY
The first day of placement reserved for investors ended with subscriptions for 1,615 billion euro retail investors of the new Btp Italia May 2023 indexed to national inflation, offering a guaranteed minimum coupon of 0,45%. The Unicredit research office expects funding between 6 and 8 billion, good but not excellent.
Last October, on the first day of the offer, funding for the security (8-year duration, minimum guaranteed coupon of 0,35%) was 1,2 billion. Overall, the retail placement closed with subscriptions of 2,2 billion, more than 3 billion subscribed by institutional investors.
The head of public debt management, Maria Cannata, also confirmed that the Treasury will carry out another Btp Italia issue in the autumn, coinciding with the maxi-repayment of the bond issued in 2013 for over 22 billion and maturing on November 12 next.
Long BTPs are down slightly on the secondary market, in line with the analogous movement of the Bund: spread unchanged at 186 points, ten-year yield 2,276% (-0,206%).
ATLANTIA (+2,4%) OPENS THE WAY FOR UPWARDS
Among the blue chips of Piazza Affari, the best rise is from Atlantia, which gains 2,4% after officially announcing the takeover bid on 100% of the Spanish company Abertis at 16,5 euros per share, for a total value of 16,3 billion euros. The price of the offer is in line with analysts' expectations. The shareholders of the Spanish conglomerate have the option of opting for an alternative which provides for payment through newly issued special Atlantia shares, on the basis of an exchange ratio of 0,697 shares of the Italian company for each Abertis share, determined on the basis of a per Atlantia share equal to 24,2 euro. The new shares will not be listed and cannot be sold until February 15, 2019, at which point they will automatically convert into common stock.
The offer aims to create the world leader in transport infrastructure management with a diversified asset portfolio in 19 countries with 14.095 km of motorways and 60 million passengers at Rome and Nice airports. The new group will be the main motorway operator in the world with an Ebitda of 6,6 billion euros and investments of 2,4 billion euros (2016 data, pro forma).
NPL: BANKITALIA OPTIMISTIC, THE ECB LESS. RUNS BPER
On the subject of non-performing loans there are positive notes from the Bank of Italy. “With the economic recovery, the problem of non-performing loans is gradually decreasing”. This was stated by the Deputy Director General of the Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, in his speech at the institutional seminar on issues related to "Non-performing loans" at the Chamber of Deputies. Just to clarify the scope of the problem, Panetta pointed out that non-performing loans, at the end of last year, amounted to 81 billion, 4,4% of total loans secured by real guarantees for 92 and personal guarantees for another 36 billion. For the top management of the Bank of Italy, it is necessary to proceed with caution, without haste, in the sale of NPLs, to avoid causing trauma to the system. The opinion of the ECB officials present at the event was different, including the head of supervision Daniele Nouy, who reiterated that the problem must be resolved quickly, without any delay.
The Italian banking index marks +0,5%, all in all in line with the European index at mid-session. Bper Banca rebounds (+2,7%), followed by Banco Bpm (+1,3%). Unicredit (+0,4%) and Intesa (+0,5%) are in line with the index. Credem +0,6% after the opening jump on the wave of the opinion of Deutsche Bank, which revised the target price upwards to 6,7 from 5,8 euro.
Among the insurance companies, on Generali +0,6%, Unipol -1%. Little moves were made by Enel (+0,1%) and Telecom Italia (-0,1%). Positive for Fiat Chrysler (+1,5%), Prysmian (+1,1%) and StM (+1%).
ESPRINET AND FINCANTIERI THE BLACK JERSEYS
A2A – 0,4% on the day of the shareholders' meeting which approved the 2016 financial statements. “In our industrial plan, we have foreseen growth in the gas market. We are interested in evaluating possible participation in tenders and M&A operations” in this area, stated Valerio Camerano during the press conference at the end of the meeting.
For Fincantieri (-4,7%) the decline of Friday continues. Kepler Cheuvreux downgraded the stock to "hold", however raising the target price to 90 cents. Negative judgment also from Banca IMI.
Esprinet is the worst on the list. The first quarter – closed with a net profit down to 2,8 million (-34%) and net revenues up by 21% to 745,5 million – suffers from a still difficult competitive scenario. The absence of an outlook for 2017 also seems to indicate relatively low visibility. Among the mid and small sap companies, Falck Renewables (+4,3%) and Retelit (+3,1%) stand out.
