White smoke on the Greek front. Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy have identified the compromise to get out of the stalemate that threatened to jeopardize the entire edifice of the euro. Private individuals will participate in the operation to rescue the Athens accounts, as requested by Germany. But their contribution, still to be defined, will be voluntary. And it will not take the form of lengthening the maturities of existing bonds, as Berlin suggested in complete disagreement with the ECB. The important thing, as Sarkozy declared, is that "we, as well as our German friends, are of the opinion that a second aid program for Greece is necessary".
Details are lacking but the agreement will follow, as Mario Draghi had suggested, the scheme of the "Vienna initiative", ie the operation which in 2009 avoided the default of Eastern Europe. On that occasion the banks undertook to renew credit to public and private debtors in Poland, Hungary and so on.
The agreement in principle was revealed shortly after 11 when the German chancellor and the president showed up in Berlin, eagerly awaited, for the press conference. From that moment the European Stock Exchanges, uncertain and in decline, reversed the direction of march heading towards a great end to the week. The Milan Stock Exchange gradually accumulated a convinced rise, closing at +1,23%, (Ftse/Mib at 20096 points) better than the Frankfurt Dax (+0,76%), the Parisian Cac (+0,83) and the London Ftse (+0,28).
In New York, by mid-afternoon, the indices were in positive territory: Dow Jones +0,76, Nasdaq +0,25%.
UNICREDIT THE "GERMAN" READY TO EXPAND CREDIT TO GREECE
THE BANKS GRANT A MORATORIUM TO SINERGIA (LIGRESTI GROUP)
Unicredit (+4,39%) honors ties with Germany. The bank in Piazza Cordusion was the first to announce your availability for a voluntary "German-style" opening towards Greece. Federico Ghizzoni did it, reports the Mf website. If there is talk of a voluntary debt rescheduling, Ghizzoni said, “I am not in principle against the involvement of the private sector”. Intesa also took advantage (+4,54%) of the calmer climate with respect to the Greek question.
Of a different nature, the formidable rebound of Bpm, which is approaching the week of fire preceding the shareholders' meeting for the capital increase "imposed" by the Bank of Italy with a double-digit gain (maximum increase +12,76%) . The day, however, rewards everyone a little. Mps stable (+0,07%) on the eve of the capital increase. Sale Ubi (+0,76%), which is about to conclude its capital operation, with the subscription of the Foundations (Banca del Monte and Cassa di Cuneo) plus Cattolica. Banco Popolare also rose (+4,23%) despite the demotion inflicted by Fitch which, according to Intermonte, will make the issue of bonds more expensive.
Again in the financial sector, another delicate knot is unraveling. The Sinergia HdP Group of the Ligresti family has finalized a moratorium and standstill agreement regarding its bank debt with ten banks representing, overall, 96,5% of the credit lines granted to the companies belonging to the group. It was a necessary step in view of the council meeting of the 22nd which will have to give you the go-ahead for the capital increase which will mark the entry of Unicredit into the capital of Fonsai (+3,96%).
PARMALAT, THERE ARE TWO RIGHT PRICES FOR EQUITA
Equita, the intermediary in charge of coordinating the collection of subscriptions to the Lactalis takeover bid on Parmalat, comes out with a new target price for the Collecchio group: 2,6 euros per share, i.e. the price offered for the takeover bid which will July 8th. Before the arrival of the French Equita had a buy rating on Parmalat with a target of 2,8 euros.
Parmalat's Board of Directors, in response to the offer launched by Lactalis, had judged the offer in May to be inadequate, given that it was placed in the lower part of the price range identified by Goldman Sachs for the takeover bid. According to the assessment made by Goldman Sachs, as a Parmalat consultant, a more suitable price range would be between 2,53 euros and 3,17 euros.
OIL IN DESCENT. HU JINTAO WORRIED ABOUT WORLD RECOVERY
THE IMF CUTS THE ESTIMATE OF THE RECOVERY: +2,55 IN THE USA, ITALY STILL AT 1%
The tug of war on the Greek question overshadows other equally important international matches. Starting with the visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao to Russia at a delicate moment for the trend of commodities. Hu Jintao himself, speaking in the Kremlin, wanted to underline his concerns about the "slow and fragile" international recovery, a judgment that had an immediate echo in the slowdown in oil prices.
In the meantime, the International Monetary Fund has once again revised downwards the estimates of GDP for 2011 and also those for 2012. In detail, this year the US economy is expected to expand by 2,5% compared to the +2,8% indicated previously, while the new estimate for 2012 is +2,7% from the +2,9% estimated since April. The IMF today also took stock of the US deficit, in this case improving the estimates with the deficit expected to stop at 9,9% compared to the 10,8% previously estimated. In general, the IMF brought its estimate of global economic growth to 4,3% in 2011 compared to the 4,4% indicated in April. The growth estimate for 4,5 is stable at 2012%.
Finally, as regards Italy, the new estimates see the economy of the beautiful country expand by 1% this year, 0,1 percent less than estimated in April. On the other hand, the forecast for 2012 remained stable, which is an increase of 1,3%.
WALL STREET. FIRST WEEK IN ACTIVE FOR SEVEN
The weaker oil mix, more serene Europe favored the upside on Wall Street: Dow Jones and S&P500 +0,6%, Nasdaq +0,3%.
Good news from the index of "leading indicators", which rose by 0,8% from -0,4% in April: economists had expected an increase of only 0,3%. The confidence index elaborated by the University of Michigan had the opposite reading, falling in June to 71,8 from 73 (against a forecast of 74).
On the corporate front, a sharp loss for Rim, the manufacturer of the Blackberry. The stock loses 16% following the presentation of quarterly data and the downward revision of the targets for the current year. The Canadian company has also postponed the launch of its latest model. Rim's sixth partner cut his position in half.
