The dollar shines on the skies of the Stock Exchanges, after the stimuli promoted by the Bank of Japan which have given wings to the Stock Exchanges also in the USA and Europe. This morning, Tokyo closed for holidays, the US currency broke through the 113 yen barrier on the East Asian stock exchanges (+3% from Friday morning) and is traded at 1,2444 against the euro, a level that promises to be a small panacea for the European economy, awaiting the PMI data this morning.
The negative note comes from Beijing: the PMI index, which measures the manufacturing activity of the Dragon, is surprisingly holding back: only 50,8 against a forecast of 51,2. But the hope of new stimuli to the economy held back sales in Shanghai -0,4%.
In Wall Street, in great effervescence on Friday, the expectation of the mid-term elections, in which the Democrats could lose control of the Senate, will be felt. Statistics show that, after the electoral appointment, stock lists have almost always taken the upward path until Christmas. It could go like this again this time, experts say, whether the Republicans (favourites) or the Democrats prevail. But the risk is that, in Georgia and Louisiana, the margin between the two parties is so narrow that it will be necessary to verify the vote. In that case, it will be necessary to wait until January 6 to have the final verdict, which is an unknown factor that could affect the price lists.
For Europe, however, the most important appointment will be the ECB meeting on Thursday: after the end of the American Qe and the acceleration of the Japanese one, it is up to Frankfurt to kick off the mini Qe, i.e. the purchase of ABS and covered bonds, waiting for Mario Draghi to be able to proceed with more robust operations.
TOWARDS THE CONSORTIUM FOR SIENA. CARIGE MAKES CASH
The most urgent (and dramatic) match in Piazza Affari concerns the race against time to finalize plans to fill the "gaps" MontePaschi (2,1 billion) and Banca Carige (814 million) that emerged from the ECB's stress tests.
"Complete coverage of the deficit through a capital increase" plus "further non-dilutive and non-onerous measures for the Bank, including the sale of financial assets, aimed at further strengthening its capital profile". These are the pillars of the plan announced by a note from the institution issued yesterday evening in which it is underlined that "the exercise by BPMS of the early conversion option of the so-called New Financial Instruments into ordinary shares or any other hypothesis is not being studied which sees the Ministry of Economy and Finance intervene in the form of new state aid”. No postponement for the Monti bond, therefore.
No less dramatic is the challenge for Banca Carige. After having sold the insurance companies, the institute is aiming for other divestments, from Creditis, the leasing and factoring consumer credit company, before proceeding with the already approved capital increase (650 million) or with a merger with another bank (among the floating names Ubi and Cariparma). But there is an alternative: the intervention of Investindustrial, Andrea Bonomi's company which could acquire 20% of the share capital during an increase. In that case, the sale of the Cesare Ponti bank will not proceed, destined to become, according to the plans of the financier, the private bank of the group.
For the other Italian banks, the coming week promises to be less stormy than the past one, under the pressure of the European after-examination and the adventurous departure of Andrea Erria, head of the EBA ("even the promoted banks are not calm") which last Thursday risked causing a meltdown. Instead, in the wake of the Bank of Japan's measures, the EuroStoxx sector index gained 3% on Friday.
Highlights in the session were Unicredit (+4,2%) and Intesa (+3,8%), which remains the second best blue chip since the beginning of the year in the Eurostoxx 50: +28% (the first is Orange with a +40% ), against the disappointing -0,7% recorded by the index. Awaited today for a confirmation B. Pop. Milan, +2,7% on Friday after S&P confirmed its rating and outlook, and Ubi Banca (+6,7%), among the best stocks on the list in view of M&A operations despite CEO Victor Massiah saying he will not there are open files.
RECORD BAGS, OIL AND GOLD FALL
The markets reopen their doors after a roaring end to the week, which erased the shadows on the stock lists. New records are being celebrated on Wall Street: the S&P 500 index (+2,7% in the week) rises above 2000, the Nasdaq marks a 14-year high. The recovery is favored by the performance of quarterly earnings: 363 companies out of the 500 in the S&P recorded an increase in profits of more than 10 per cent. The Stoxx 600 index increased by 2,9% during the week (+1,8% on Friday), however insufficient to bring the October balance sheet back to surplus (-1,8%). In Milan, the Ftse Mib index closed the week up by 1,5%.
Meanwhile, the dollar reached a new record against the yen, above 112 (the lowest for seven years) and against the euro, below 1,25. The superdollar helps to compress the price of raw materials: gold has plummeted to 1.165,40 dollars an ounce (to its lowest level since August 2010). Oil records the sixth consecutive week of decline, the likes of which has not happened since 2002: Brent fell by 9,3% in October. Despite the slowdown in prices, OPEC has increased production and volumes are on the rise in the United States.
In the bond market, the ten-year BTP strengthens. The yield fell 10 basis points to 2,34%. The spread with the Bund goes to 150 (-9 basis points). The gap between the Italian and Spanish 27-year bonds is also shrinking, the differential is 15 basis points, the lowest in the last 44 days. It was up XNUMX basis points.
RUNNING EMERGENCIES, NEW DEFAULT IN ARGENTINA
The push coming from Japan more than offset the expected shock of the end of QE on emerging markets: the Brazilian stock market closed the week up 5,2%, on the wave of the new injection of liquidity. The spotlight was on Argentina this morning after the Bank of New York Mellon, custodian of some Argentine restructured bonds, warned bondholders of the bonds' default, the second since July. Fitch consequently downgraded the rating on these issues to 'D' from 'C'.
The Argentine economy is in recession - Fitch points out - and the situation will worsen since a default event has an impact on confidence and reduces the flow of money to the country.
PIAZZA AFFARI TUNE IN TO RAIWAY. AND SAY GOODBYE TO INDESIT
The market rebound was a welcome gift for Rai which today will launch the public offer for the sale of 30,51% of RaiWay, a share that could rise to 34,93% in the event of full exercise of the greenshoe. The company thus aims to interrupt the negative streak of IPOs which have renounced listing since the summer due to lack of demand.
The range of shares in the transmission tower company was set at 2,95-3,5 euros per share, equal to a valuation of the company's economic capital of 802-952 million euros.
Rai Way announced that it closed the first nine months of the year with pro-forma revenues of 155,2 million, pro-forma Ebitda of 80,4 million and pro-forma net profit of 26,9 million. Net financial debt as at 30 September was equal to 73 million. The pro-forma document simulates, starting from 1 January 2014, the accounting effects of the new active and passive service contracts with the parent company Rai, signed on 1 July.
However, Piazza Affari could soon give up an almost "historic" title. Whirlpool Italia's takeover bid for Indesit starts this morning: the offer equal to 11 euros per share concerns the free float (29,99%) not controlled by the US group for a total amount of 336 million.
TELECOM, THE BRAZILIAN GAME WARMS UP
Great attention for the Brazilian game of Telecom Italia, in the end of the week among the best companies in the European telecommunications index after the press reports on an agreement between America Movil, Telefonica and Grupo Oi for an offer on Tim Brasil, however not denied by potential bidders. Tim Brasil said no talks are ongoing and he has not received any offers.
But over the weekend the billionaire Patrick Drahi, at the helm of Altice, made an offer of 8,8 billion dollars for the purchase of Portugal Telecom's assets from Oì, which would thus have raised the necessary capital to launch the offer on Tim Brasil: 32 billion reals, an anticipation that sent the stock up 15%. The bidders are confident that the offer will not meet political resistance after the affirmation of Dilma Rousseff in the presidential elections.
STM, THE CHIP GOES TOWARDS THE CDP
Stm under the spotlight after +5% on Friday, a gain that only serves to reduce the loss accumulated over the month of October which amounts to about 13 percentage points despite growing results. At the origin of the loss was the warning on the outlook for the fourth quarter. But the Treasury aims to sell the share of Stm to the Cassa depositi e prestiti (Cdp) group by the end of the year: the current market valuation of the package is around 615 million euros.
