US inflation is under control, so there are fewer worries about a tightening of rates capable of damaging the price run. The Chinese economy accelerates, Japanese industrial production is on the rise. But the Stock Exchanges lose ground under the impetus of the Trump cyclone which, day after day, turns the world of politics and business upside down.
VIA TILLERSON, 35 THE LICENSED FROM THE WHITE HOUSE
Yesterday the president's day opened with the firing of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, replaced by former CIA number one Mike Pompeo. This is the 35th firing among Trump aides. Tillerson, opposed to canceling the nuclear deal with Iran, is paying the price, among other things, for his hostility to the protectionist turn. In addition to having called the president "an idiot". “We didn't think the same way” commented Trump adding that “Rex is a good man to whom I wish the best. I believe that now he will be happier ”.
Meanwhile, the news has arrived from the White House that soon, perhaps as early as next week, the United States will impose duties of 60 billion on imports from China, especially in technology and telecommunications equipment. The US thus opens the chapter on the violation of intellectual property rights. But Trump's action, adds Reuters, will not spare t-shirts and shoes.
BUT BEIJING'S ECONOMY ACCELERATES
The effects were not long in coming. The Nikkei index slowed this morning in Tokyo (-0,87%). Seoul also slows down, following the decline of Samsung. Mumbai -0,3%. Half a point below the Csi 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen, despite the increase in industrial production (+7,2% in the first two months of 2018) higher than forecasts. The MSCI basket inaugurated 12 sector indices on Chinese markets.
INFLATION UNDER CONTROL, T-BOND YIELDS DOWN
Two-faced sitting yesterday on Wall Street. The start was positive, thanks to the inflation data (+0,2%), then concern grew over the prospect of a trade war. The Dow Jones index lost 0,68%, the S&P 500 0,64%. The Nasdaq is worse (-1,02%). They suffer more than all the big names in technology: Microsoft, Facebook and Alphabet suffer losses between 1,5 and 2,4%.
The dollar weakens. The euro returned above 1,241 this morning, up for the third consecutive day. The yield on the 2,82-year Treasury Bill, after the fear of inflation has passed, falls to 2,80% from XNUMX%.
CRUDE OIL STABLE, SARAS FLYING TO MILAN
Oil was stable, thanks to the support of data on US inventories, which were less strong than expected. Brent at 64,59 dollars a barrel, Wti at 60,76.
Saras goes up in Piazza Affari (+3,33%). Analysts raised their targets after the presentation of the plan to 2021. Kepler Cheuvreux increased the target price on the stock from 2 to 2,2 euros (buy), Ubs from 2,2 to 2,3 euros (buy) and Mediobanca Securities from 2,1 to 2,2 euros (outperform).
EUROPE HOLDS DOWN TOO, FRANKFURT SUFFERS
The trade war winds are blowing ever stronger, a contested opening looms for European markets. The price list of Germany, the first exporting power, is paying for it more than anyone else. The rise of the euro contributed to complicating the course of the markets. For the first time after six consecutive upward sessions, the Eurostoxx index closed in negative ground (-0,94%).
After a morning on positive ground, Piazza Affari slowed down (-0,32%) in line with the other markets. The Ftse Mib index closed at 22.690 points after having exceeded 22.850 several times. Milan remains the only place on positive ground since the beginning of the year: +4,2%.
The spotlights are still on for Frankfurt. But not upwards, as had happened on the eve. In fact, the Dax index dropped 1,59%, under pressure from cars (Volkswagen -2,56%, despite the profit more than doubling to 11,6 billion euros) and technology (Infineon - 1,95%). Since the beginning of the year, the German stock market has lost more than 5%.
Paris (+0,64%) and Madrid, the most brilliant market in the first part of the session, also fell (ups of up to 0,75%).
London loses more than one percentage point (-1,05%). According to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), an independent government body that acts alongside the British Treasury, the cost of Brexit amounts to 42 billion pounds.
EMPLOYMENT IMPROVES, BUT IT REMAINS BELOW 2007
The OECD has maintained an estimate of growth of the Italian GDP at 1,5% for this year, confirming the projection provided in November, which appears to be in line with the government's estimates. The GDP growth forecast for next year at 1,3% has been confirmed.
The prospects for the euro area are improving, which according to the OECD should record GDP growth of 2,3% in 2018 and 2,1% in 2019, while in November both forecasts were two tenths of a point lower.
Last year the labor market recorded a drop in unemployment, especially in the North, and also in those who have stopped looking for a job, while the boom in fixed-term contracts continues, which grow much more than permanent jobs. According to Istat, employment grew for the fourth consecutive year (+1,2%, equal to 265.000 units), the employment rate rose to 58% (+0,7 points over the year), but remains below below that of 2008 (-0,7 points), the starting point of the financial crisis.
THE TREASURY FULLS UP AT THE BTP AUCTION, RATES SLOWLY RISING
The Treasury has outpaced the first medium to long-term auctions since the elections.
At the end of the session, the differential between Italian and German ten-year rates closed at 138 bp (one point more than the day before), while the yield on the February 2 benchmark remained below the 2028% threshold.
Between the new seven years and reopenings of the three and 15 years together with the off-the-run in March 2047, the Ministry of the Economy raised the maximum amount of 8,75 billion euros at slightly contrasting yields but not far from those of mid-February.
Placed for a maximum of 4 billion at a gross rate of 1,47% (1,51% net of commissions), the new seven-year May 2024 closed the session at a yield of 1,504%.
ATLANTIA, THERE IS THE AGREEMENT FOR ABERTIS
White smoke in the evening in the match for Abertis. Atlantia (-1,55%) and Acs have caught up the joint purchasing agreement of the Spanish motorway group Abertis, thus avoiding a costly bidding war.
TELECOM, WAR OF NERVES. MEDIASET MISSES
Thus ends the game of highways. That of telecommunications, however, is only in its infancy. Telecom Italia was down sharply yesterday (-2,37%). It has already opened the war of nerves between Elliott and Vivendi in view of the meeting on 24 April. Vivendi entertains the hypothesis of making Tim's entire board void in order to void the next meeting and take away room for Elliott's maneuver which calls for new governance for the telecommunications company. The activist fund, for its part, has already made four requests to Amos Genish: proportional demerger of the network with the attribution to Tim shareholders of the shares of Netco, the newco that will arise from the separation of the network; immediate conversion of savings (yesterday -2,02%) into ordinary shares; extraordinary dividend and new governance.
Mediaset was also heavy, losing 4,15%. JP Morgan cut its target price to 3,10 euros from 3,20 euros and the recommendation to "underweight" from "neutral". The stock is on the roller coaster following the outcome of the general elections of 4 March.
UTILITIES ADVANCE, ITALGAS AWARDED
The positive momentum continues for utilities, driven by the reorganization of the German electricity groups. The EuroStoxx Utility index (+0,8% to 274 points) continues its march, posting the seventh consecutive rise. The overall gain amounts to 8%, but the performance since the beginning of 2018 remains negative by 3%.
Enel closed at +0,77%, A2A with +1,41%. Italgas also did well, closing up 2,25%. Deutsche Bank brought the target price on the stock to 4,4 euros from the previous 4,3 euros.
The most popular stock was Italgas (+2,32%). The day after the publication of the accounts Kepler and SocGen confirmed the positive opinion on the stock, but filed the target price. In particular, the analysts of Kepler Cheuvreux reaffirmed the Outperform judgment with a target price of 5,40 euros from the previous 5,30 euros. Colleagues at Société Générale confirmed the Buy judgment with a revised target price of 5,4 euros from 5,47 euros. Confirms the Neutral Macquarie with a target price of 4,90 euros from the previous 5,10.
Among the financials, Unipol shone (+2,1%, after reaching a peak of +4%). Kepler-Cheuvreux raised the recommendation to Buy from Hold, confirming the target price at 4,60 euros. Down Cattolica (-2,85%).
Banking sector without a clear direction. The index of Italian banks dropped 0,15%, bettering the European Stoxx (-0,82%). The former Popolari are doing well: Banco Bpm +2,32%, Bper +1,86%. The Bigs, on the other hand, were weak: Unicredit lost 0,41%, Intesa 0,28%.
Among the smallest, Creval lost 1,61% on the first day of the stock market offer of the unexercised option rights of the capital increase. Purchases on Carige (+4,4%) after the good rise achieved yesterday, in a market that continues to speculate on the battle for governance and on the interest of the funds for the institute in search of a new shareholding balance .
CREDIT SUISSE PROMOTES FERRARI, BIESSE FLYS
Sales on Stm, in line with the chip sector, also negative at European level (-1,27%).
Ferrari -1,2%, but fears of duties on European car imports do not scare Credit Suisse analysts who this morning announced that they had started coverage with an Outperform judgment and a target of 121,7 euros.
Mondadori closed down by 1,06% in the wake of the results and the cut in the guidance on revenues seen in slight contraction for 2018, as well as the net profit
Ordinary cash flow is expected to be around 50 million.
Biesse did very well (+4,56%): Banca Akros raised the target price of the share to 49,7 from 48,6 euros, confirming the recommendation accumulated in the wake of the 2017 results.
