After 24 quarters of growth, exports from industrial districts in the first three months of 2016 suffered a very slight contraction (-0,9% trend variation), in line with what was observed at national level. In the same district specialization sectors, Germany suffered a 2,5% reduction in exports. The first quarter of 2016, on the other hand, closed with a growth trend of 3,8% in the exports of the 22 Italian technological poles monitored by Intesa Sanpaolo. The start of the year was positive for all sectors monitored and, in particular, for aeronautics (+10,5%), driven by the leap of the Roman pole. The pharmaceutical, ICT and biomedical sectors showed an increase of +2,8%, +2,3% and +1,4% respectively.
The setback of the districts was mainly caused by the sharp slowdown in demand from emerging markets. Russia, Algeria, Hong Kong, Brazil and the United Arab Emirates are the countries where district exports suffered the most significant losses: approximately -375 million euros in the first quarter of 2016 compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. It then occurred a significant drop in exports to Switzerland, which is affected by the physiological slowdown, after last year's leap, of the flows from the goldsmith poles. Finally, the contribution of the German market, where exports remained mostly stable, penalized by the decline in German imports of typical district products (-1,5%).
The supply chain of metals, household appliances, consumer goods in the fashion system, food and beverages closed the quarter down, penalized by the difficulties encountered by some important district realities. Exports from the engineering districts remained substantially stable. On the other hand, the other district specializations showed a positive evolution, driven by the leap in the export of construction products and materials (+8,9% the trend variation), other intermediates (+4,5%), furniture (+ 2,2%) and intermediate goods of the fashion system (+1,3%).
The first quarter of the year was characterized by a rift in the manufacturing district, with 73 districts up and 74 down. A picture of lights and shadows therefore emerges, in which there are also positive elements and new confirmations of the good levels of competitiveness of many district areas. Even in sectors that are generally in difficulty and characterized by unfavorable demand conditions, various districts with good growth performances have come to the fore.
In the fashion system, for example, eyewear in Belluno, leather goods and footwear in Florence and textiles and clothing in Prato they showed good growth rates and managed to place themselves in the top 5 places for growth in exports in absolute value, preceded only by two districts of Emilia Romagna, the tiles of Sassuolo and the mopeds of Bologna. The export of Sassuolo tiles (+11,2%) recorded a brilliant performance in all the main commercial outlets, led by the United States and France, while the mopeds of Bologna were driven by the good results obtained in the United States.
Positive indications also come from the excellent performances achieved in some traditional outlet markets and in some new commercial destinations. It split the Spanish market (+7,3%), where the mechanical and consumer goods districts of the fashion system stood out above all, while the United States confirmed itself as the main driver of the growth of the districts.
In the first quarter of 2016, exports to this market grew by 6,5%, equal to 127,5 million more than in the corresponding period of the previous year. These are important results, especially if read in the light of the decline suffered by the total of Italian exports of manufactured goods in the United States United States (-1,5%). The districts specializing in the fashion system, construction products and materials and the furniture industry made the difference.
The industrial districts were then very reactive in seizing the growth opportunities that emerged in some new markets, such as Mexico, Iran and Israel. In Iran, for example, the positive outcomes of the Iranian nuclear agreement also seem to have given a good boost to district exports, which in the first quarter of 2016 recorded an increase of 26,2 million euros, with particularly brilliant performances of many mechanical districts, but also of some districts of the home system, such as the wood-furnishing sector of Brianza and the kitchens of Pesaro.
In the second half of the year, district exports should return to positive territory, thanks to the push from the United States and European markets and to a less unfavorable evolution on emerging markets, where the recent rebound in oil prices will ease pressure on the balance of payments, with positive effects on global growth. Businesses in the districts will also be able to rely more on domestic demand, both for consumer goods (driven by the recovery in disposable income, the improved performance of the labor market and the favorable climate of household confidence) and investment goods (surveys report a growing propensity to invest), which favor smaller, less export-oriented companies.
Attached in Pdf (see above) is the complete version of the July 2016 District Monitor edited by Intesa Sanpaolo.
Attachments: District Monitor July 2016
