Asian markets weak at the start of the week. The prospect of new tariffs arriving from Washington which for the first time could also involve Japan has caused new, widespread reductions: the Asia Pacific index (-3,5% last week) is down for the eighth day of line. The Chinese (-0,9%) and Hong Kong (-1%, at the new low for 14 months) lists were in the red. Tokyo, after the negative start, travels on parity after the revision of the GDP data: +3% in the second quarter, the best figure since 2016.
Populists advance, they don't break through. The Swedish elections record the success of SD, the new anti-immigrant right which rises to 17,6%, but the Social Democrats, who also record the worst result since 1908, remain the relative majority party with 28,4% of the votes and with a modest margin on the center right: it will be difficult to form a new government. The coalition of social democrats, led by the outgoing prime minister, took 144 seats, the alliance of conservatives 143 seats, the anti-immigrant party 62 seats. There are 349 seats in Parliament.
The euro moved little, at 1,154 against the dollar, from -0,4% last week. The European currency appreciated slightly, to 10,47 on the Swedish krona.
BCE, DRAGONS BACK ON THE FIELD
The confirmation of the growth of the populist and sovereignist wave a few months before the European elections comes on the eve of the speech on the state of the Union, the last one by Jean-Claude Juncker, and of Thursday's ECB directorate meeting, the last before the reduction in Qe purchases, from 30 to 15 billion a month, which will be zeroed at the end of the year. Mario Draghi will take the opportunity of the press conference to reiterate that central bank policy will remain accommodative for the first half of 2019 or even beyond.
Other appointments during the week for central banks: the Bank of England meeting is scheduled for Thursday. The evening before, the data from the Beige Book will be released in the USA.
NOMURA: 7 CURRENCIES AT RISK
But the meetings of the central banks of the Emerging Countries are no less important, in a very delicate moment. The meeting of the Turkish central bank stands out in particular, dealing with the resistance of President Erdogan against the increase in interest rates. According to Nomura, there are seven countries that risk a currency crisis in the short term: Sri Lanka, South Africa, Argentina, Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey and Ukraine.
APPLE ARRANGES THE NEW PHONES AGAINST TRUMP
To follow, then, the moves of the Chinese central bank, which could ease the tightening when the new tariffs by the US kick off, which will hit goods worth 267 billion dollars, including Apple components made in China. The American President has announced that the duties will soon affect all exports from Beijing. And he launched a tweet against Apple: "Instead of complaining, produce the iPhone in America".
Tim Cook, increasingly critical of Donald Trump's protectionist policy, will present the new iPhones and the awaited latest version of the completely renewed iWatch and iPad on Wednesday.
Over the weekend, the Wall Street Journal wrote that the White House intends to focus its trade offensive on China, sparing Europe and other strategic partners such as Japan, Canada and Mexico. Trump's chief economic adviser, in an interview with CNBC over the weekend, said that Trump intends to build an anti-China front, in which to bring the world's major economies into.
Brent oil was up 0,6% to $77,3 a barrel.
TRIA: THE SPREAD IS NO LONGER SCARY
The tensions on the spread are "a problem that we have behind us, having passed August which is a dangerous month for the fluctuation of the financial markets". Thus the Minister of Economy, Giovanni Tria, who also confirmed the slowdown in the economy both in 2018 (+1%) and in 2919 (+1,1%). The first test of market sentiment will take place on Wednesday with the auction of 12-month BOTs (6 billion against 6,5 in maturity). Tonight, with the stock exchanges closed, the amount and characteristics of the medium-term securities at auction on Thursday 13 will be communicated.
ALIBABA: ZHANG IN PLACE OF JACK MA
The financial week opens with the press conference of Jack Ma, who today will reveal the new leaders of the giant Alibaba after his decision to relinquish leadership of the group. President will be the current CEO Daniel Zhang.
ADVANCE COUPON FOR ENI, TURIN REMEMBERS MARCHIONNE
In Italy, Eni's board of directors will be required to approve the interim dividend on Thursday.
The commemoration of Sergio Marchionne will be held in Turin on Friday 14th.
