December got off to a flying start for the entire periphery of the eurozone, which suddenly became the "safe haven" for international speculation. The most obvious sign lies in the drop below 300bps in the Btp/Bund spread. But for what reasons?
Greece, first of all, clarified the procedures for the buyback on its 10 billion euro bonds intended to reduce public debt, defining a higher price range than initial forecasts, up to 40% of the nominal. A decision that electrified the markets because it was preceded by the declarations of Angela Merkel: Germany, for the first time, said it was willing to cancel part of Athens' debt.
A second, crucial, European match went through tonight. The Eurogroup has given the green light to the funds (39,5 billion euros) to be allocated to the rescue of Spanish banks.
However, the fiscal cliff took care of stopping the bull's run. Negotiations in Washington are progressing slowly. Republican John Boehmer yesterday relaunched Treasury Secretary Geithner's proposal: a plan of 2,2 billion dollars, of which 1,4 thanks to cuts in the costs of health care reform, and 800 million from lower deductions for wealthy taxpayers. The agreement is still far away.
The summary, for the Stock Exchanges, is as follows: Wall Street closes down: Dow Jones -0,46%, S&P -0,47%, Nasdaq - 0,27%. Piazza Affari, which in the middle of the session gained 1,4% over 16 points, slowed down to +0,4% towards the end. London closed in parity, Paris +0,2%, Frankfurt +0,4%.
ASIA
The Asian lists have moved in the wake of the US Stock Exchange. Tokyo -0,21% slows down, held back by the decline in manufacturing activity in the USA. Hong Kong, on the other hand, rebounded (+0,23%) on the back of the real estate recovery.
Meanwhile, the landslide in Shanghai -0,3%, slipped to its lowest level since 15 January 2009. Of note is the Australian central bank's decision to cut the discount rate by a quarter of a point to 3%, in an attempt to stem the fall in the 'economy.
AMERICA
In addition to the duel on the fiscal cliff, worse-than-expected macro data weighs on Wall Street. November's Ism index on US manufacturing fell more than expected to 49,5 from 51,7 in October, expected for 51,4. Quota 50 indicates the watershed between economic expansion and contraction. Instead, construction spending in October was better than expected, growing by 1,4%, much more than the 0,5% expected.
Among the blue chips, the leap of Dell + 6%. after Goldman Sachs raised its judgment to "buy" from "sell", setting a target price of 13 dollars.
Yahoo moves back -0,3%. The Internet company lost a lawsuit in Mexico centered on the Yellow Pages service and was ordered (in a non-final judgment) to pay a settlement of $ 2,7 billion to Worldwide Directories and Ideas Interactive.
BTPs, bunds and more
In summary, the bulletin of the day of the recovery of the southern European sovereign debt records:
Italy. The 15-year BTP/Bund spread drops by 295 basis points to 10 for a 4,38-year BTP yield of 2%, a new low in the last 10 years. From the end of July to today, the yield on the 6,55-year BTP has gone from 4,38% to 530%. In the same period, the spread went from 295 to XNUMX basis points.
Spain. The 17-year Bonos/Bund spread drops by 373 points to 10 for a 5,15-year Bonos yield of XNUMX%, the lowest since March.
Greece. The 10-year Greece/Germany spread fell by 170 basis points to 1.276, for a yield of 14,19%, the lowest since July 2011. At 30 years, the Greece/Germany spread (-85 basis points to 921) returned below the threshold psychological of the thousand basis points.
Germany. Yields considered super-safe in Austria, Finland and Germany up to 2 years are back above “zero”.
ITALY
The spread effect gave life to the banking sector. In Piazza Affari, the banks closed higher thanks to the reduction in the spread. Unicredit galloping +2,23% on the day it reopened a lower tier II subordinated bond for 250 million.
Understanding + 0,9% Ubi +1,5%. And again: Banca Popolare di Milano +0.91%, Mediobanca +0,8% and Banco Popolare +0,44%.
Among the insurance Generali rose by 0,8%. A meeting will be held today between CEO Andrea Greco and the management committee in view of the Investor Day on 14 January. The concentration of insurance activities in Italy and the first dossiers for acquisitions are under discussion, starting with the Turkish company controlled by Yapi Credit (Unicredit). Bucking Unipol -3,7%.
Among the Milanese blue chips, the best stock is Mediaset, up 6,6% after JP Morgan confirmed the positive "overweight" recommendation, setting a target price of 2,2 euros.
Downturn for the main titles of the Italian industry: Fiat it fell by 0,7%. From the USA comes the news of a new sales record for Chrylser and for the 500 made in the USA but in Italy the market shows a new decline, equal to 20,5%. The market share of the Italian group rises to 29,8%. Other industrial stocks: Fiat Industrial -0,1% Pirelli -0,1%Finmeccanica -0,4% and StM -1,4%. Among the mid caps, I leap by Prelios + 13%.
The province of Milan tries to raise cash. The Board of Asam, the holding company of the public body, has resolved to proceed with the auction for 14,56% of the capital. The starting price is 160,1 million for a total valuation of just over 1,1 billion, corresponding to a unit value of the share equal to 4,40 euro. But there is the possibility of submitting low bids. Meanwhile, the company and the Municipality of Milan intend to present the complaint to Consob on the withdrawal of the Sea IPO as early as today. The commission will be asked to ascertain whether any actions were taken during the IPO (in particular by the minority shareholder F2i) which have "negatively affected the actual execution of the operation".
