Mid-year turning point with very high tension on the financial markets. The beginning of the week confirms the concerns gained over the weekend: it will be a black Monday. In Tokyo, the Nikkei index lost about 2%, the largest drop in 2015. The other stock exchanges in the Asia Pacific area were in negative territory.
The Chinese stock exchanges are a story in themselves. Both Shanghai and Shenzhen were hit by extreme volatility: first the rise in the order of 3%, then a new collapse of almost 4% after the landslide on Friday (abundant -7%, -20% since June 12 for both the price lists). The central bank on Saturday cut China's discount rate, the fourth since November. But the drop in the cost of money to 4,85% was not enough to curb the hemorrhage of sales.
BANKS AND STOCK EXCHANGE CLOSED IN ATHENS
However, the Greek drama is looming over all markets. There was no last-minute agreement, Alexis Tsipras played the referendum card on the creditors' proposal, to be held on Sunday 5 July. Today the financial markets, which until last Friday bet on a happy ending, will have to deal with a very different scenario.
Greek banks, as well as the Stock Exchange, will remain closed today after the weekend's massive rush to ATMs. Greece is starting the referendum in a surreal climate: bank branches closed for the whole week, ATMs reopened only tomorrow with a daily withdrawal limit of 60 euros until Tuesday 7 July, a blockage on the movement of capital that could last for months. First strikes (see the ferries), stop of imports and payments.
The ECB chose yesterday to maintain the supply of liquidity to banks but without exceeding the ceiling of the 89 billion already granted. A symbolic move with which the ECB kept the door open to the presence of Greece in the euro circuit, but the absence of new funds forced Tsipras to order the lockout "because of the ECB".
MARKET MOVERS: IRAN AND US EMPLOYMENT
The Hellenic syndrome overshadows the final sprint for the Iranian nuclear deal which could lead to an agreement between the USA, Europe (but also Russia) and Tehran. In case of white smoke, many things will change. Above all, the supply of oil will grow with a significant effect on prices to the benefit of consumers. Even more important: the unprecedented axis between Washington and the ayatollahs in an anti-ISIS function will become official, with unpredictable geo-economic effects.
Short week on Wall Street, closed next Friday for the 4th of July holiday. But there will be time for the most eagerly awaited statistic: June's labor market data will be announced on Thursday. 230 new hires are expected, against 288 in May. Better data could reignite fears about a rate hike as early as September. Even if the recovery of the euro removes the risks of the superdollar. In the meantime, the Bank for International Settlements has issued a warning: an increase in interest rates will have a major impact on the banking system. New capital strengthening measures are urgently needed.
MILAN EARNS 25% SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR
“The situation is all the worse because no one had foreseen it”, is the comment common to all investment banks. Therefore, a very difficult recovery is looming for European stock exchanges which closed their doors on Friday in the mistaken belief that the weekend would bring an agreement on Greece. All the lists closed the week with gains in the order of 5%.
Piazza Affari was no exception: 4,5%. Since the beginning of the year, the index has gained a generous 25%. There is no shortage of news on the corporate agenda. The Caleffi capital increase kicks off this morning. The OPV of Banca Sistema ends tomorrow. Today Fnm, Ivs, Intek ordinary and savings have detached the dividend. UnipolSai savings cat. A and B, and Unipol savings.
TREASURY AUCTIONS IN A TURBULENT WEATHER
It will be a day of high tension for government bonds. The European Central Bank is ready to take action to defend the securities of the periphery (Portugal, Spain and Italy) from speculative attacks. On Friday the BTPs had closed in recovery with a 2,16-year yield of 125%, spread below XNUMX basis points.
TELECOM, THE VIVENDI ERA BEGINS. BROADBAND, ADIEU TO THE DECREE
Telco's old partners are completing the exit from Telecom. Generali has practically liquidated the 4,3% stake. 0,76% remains in the portfolio. Between today and tomorrow it will be Mediobanca's turn which will have to sell 1,64% by the end of the month to account for the capital gain in the June 2015 financial statements (the securities, devalued, are held at 0,55 euro).
Meanwhile, the best way to integrate the board with Vivendi representatives is being studied: the CEO Arnaud de Puyfontaine and Stéphane Roussel, former CEO of Sfr, before the sale to Numericable. Meanwhile, the launch of the broadband plan has been postponed once again: it will not be possible, undersecretary Alberto Giacomelli admitted, to proceed with the reform with a decree law.
BANKS IN THE TRENCH. INTESA LAUNCHES THE NEW FIDEURAM
After Friday's euphoria, a day of maximum tension across Europe is looming for the banking sector. In this context, work continues on the Intesa shipyard. On July 1, the new Fideuram will make its debut in which, after the special meeting held on June 22, all Private Banking activities have been concentrated, including the Swiss ISP and the trust company Sirefid. Meanwhile, the governance reform project will be handed over to tomorrow's supervisory board, as revealed by the president Gian Maria Gros-Pietro.
Great maneuvers at MPS in view of the appointment of the new president to replace Alessandro Profumo. Btg Pactual communicated that it had increased, on the occasion of the capital increase, its stake to 3,13% against the previous 1,9%. The entry into the pact (which counts in addition to Btg the Foundation with a 1,55% share and Fintech with 2,74%) of Alessandro Falciai's Millennium which enjoys the support of BlackRock and Fidelity is increasingly probable.
During the week, the auction will be held on the unopted Carige increase, moreover 99,83% subscribed. After the operation, the Malacalza family rose to 17% from the previous 14,9%. The second shareholder is the financier Gabriele Volpi with 5,5%.
RCS BOOKS, HERE COMES THE MONDADORI OFFER
This morning, after a lengthy due diligence, the publishing house chaired by Marina Berlusconi should present the offer to purchase RCS Libri. The offer should be between 130 and 150 million. Meanwhile Fininvest celebrated the return to profit: 9,9 million after two years in deep red conditioned by the consequences of the Mondadori award. Indebtedness decreased by 500 million, reduced to one billion. AC Milan's accounts in the red still weigh, on the eve of the possible sale of a stake to the Thai tycoon Bee.
