Skepticism about the Euro and Europe, evidence of sterilization of the public debt, desire for public spending even at the cost of breaking through the European parameters: these are the intentions of the nascent yellow-green government set out in the "contract for change". Brussels and the chancelleries of the main European countries have not taken it well and the markets even less so. But How much does a programmatic platform like this cost Italians?
The first accounts were done today The paper: considering the fall in the stock market capitalization from 15 May (the day of the first rumors about the contract) to 21 May (the day of the presentation of the official Lega and M5S contract to President Mattarella) the loss is 33 billion euros of which 30,5 due to the drop in stock market values (net of the coupon detachment) - the drop in the Ftse Mib is almost five points in percentage terms -, and 2,5 billion for the increase in the spread over 180 basis points.
Obviously, these are data approximated by default and by excess. By default because, given the mood of the markets and the uncertainties that the guidelines of the new government generate in the world of finance, it is unfortunately not said that the downturn in the stock exchanges is over and, least of all, that the yields on government bonds will not continue to grow by expanding the ten-year BTP spread not only with respect to German Bunds but also to French and Spanish government bonds, weighing on Treasury accounts, banks and individuals asking for loans and mortgages. Whoever buys government bonds with the highest yield saves and earns, as an investor but not as a taxpayer. But the data are approximated by default also because, in the given political conditions, it is difficult to imagine that new entrepreneurs or foreign industrial and financial groups decide to invest in Italy.
Naturally they are also approximated by excess because no one can know with absolute certainty today what the exact course of the markets is and, moreover, the good performance of company profits and the real economy could at least partially contain the losses of the Stock Exchange.
However, the premises do not seem to be the best: the Stock Exchange is struggling to recover and, precisely on 21 May, while Di Maio and Salvini went to the Quirinale to report to the head of state the name of Giuseppe Conte as designated premier, the Btp/Bund differential broke through to the upside of 190 basis points (up by almost 60 points in just one week), while yields reached their highest levels since 2014.
Judging by the vote of 4 March, Italians do not seem to be fully aware of the real effects that the change of course of national politics can have on their wallets, notwithstanding the basic income and the flat tax. But savers are starting to wonder: how much the reckless twists and turns of the Lega and Cinque Stelle will cost us. Unfortunately, the first signs do not lead to optimism.
