The prospect of a change in direction of the Fed's policy weighs on the opening of the markets. Friday's data on new jobs in the USA conditioned the opening of the Asian stock exchanges this morning. Expectations are growing for a rate hike as early as June. Tokyo, down by about 1%, is also affected by the final data on 2014 GDP: the year closed with a modest +0,4%, despite the efforts of Abenomics. Chinese Stock Exchanges also fell: Hong Kong -0,6%, Shanghai -1%.
Meanwhile, a “historic day for Europe” is in sight. European quantitative easing kicks off this morning, which provides for bond purchases by the ECB and national central banks for 60 billion a month until September 2016.
The Eurogroup then meets to examine the Athens plan, between Wolfgang Schaeuble's declared hostility to the vagueness of the intentions announced by the Greek government and the desire to avoid Grexit by a large part of the community. Finance Minister Yannis Varoufakis argued in an interview with Corriere della Sera that, in the event of a rejection, a referendum on the policies to be adopted in Europe could be held in Greece, together with new elections.
The mid-month auctions kick off in this climate. Tonight the Treasury will communicate the amount of the offer for medium-long term bonds scheduled for Thursday 12. The 12-month BOT auction is scheduled for Wednesday.
BUSINESS PLACE +17,9% SINCE JANUARY, S&P MISSES
While waiting for the Qe, the fifth consecutive week of increases has ended in Piazza Affari. After two sessions down and three positives, the weekly performance of the Milan index marks a moderate increase of 0,3%, which brings the increase since the beginning of the year to +17,9%. During the week, the overall index of the Stoxx 600 European Stock Exchanges rose by 0,4%, the Eurostoxx 50 is at its highest level since 2008. Frankfurt too touched its all-time record. The Londoner FT100 has been one step away from the record since 1999.
The mood was different on Wall Street (in any case at the highest levels) and on the emerging markets, held back by the prospect of rate hikes and the negative repercussions of the dollar's rise. The S&P 500 index closed the week down 1,6%. The drop in the Emerging Markets index -2,3% was more marked. Daylight saving time is introduced in the US today. Trading on the US Stock Exchange will begin at 14.30 (Italian time) and close at 21.30.
DOLLAR-EURO, IN VIEW OF THE CONNECTION IN 2015
The dollar strengthened to 1,085 against the euro, from 1,103 yesterday evening and from 1,119 a week ago: in five sessions the greenback rose by 3% against the European currency. Analysts are no longer wondering if parity between the euro and the dollar will be reached, but when. For Ing and Barclays the link will be reached in 2015. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup will meet in 2016. A lot will depend, of course, on the start of the increase in US rates. The decision is certainly closer after the data on US payrolls, which show a stronger than expected increase in employment.
Curiosity will be satisfied in ten days, when the Fed's press release is released at the end of the meeting on rates: if no further mention is made of the "patience" of the central bank, it will mean that the cost of money will rise in June or October, the date of upcoming meetings. The Swiss National Bank will push interest rates into negative territory with the aim of halting the appreciation of the franc against the euro. The preview was published by Schweiz am Sontag.
CORPORATE BONDS TAKE OFF, THE CDP BOND TAKES PLACE
The expectation of the drop in yields is stimulating issues by private companies, often motivated by the objective of replacing loans subscribed in the past with bonds that are more advantageous for them. On the secondary market, Terna's bond (February 2018 expiry) with a yield of 0,48% is recorded, followed by Atlantia (0,549% November 2018 expiry) or Eni (0,649%, April 2019 expiry).
There is much anticipation this morning for the launch of the first bond aimed at the retail market of the Cassa Depositi e Prestiti. To be subscribed between today and 27 March: amount of 1 billion (which can be increased to 1,5 billion), duration seven years, minimum denomination of 1.000 euro. The security, subject to the substitute tax of 12,5%, will have a gross quarterly coupon of 1,75% for the first two years, variable for the following five years with a spread above the quarterly Euribor. Unlike postal savings bonds, it will be listed on the MoT.
APPLE PRESENTS THE IWATCH. GOAL: A THOUSAND BILLION IN THE STOCK EXCHANGE
Tonight Tim Cook will reveal to 750 journalists invited to the Yerba Buena Center of the Arts in San Francisco the secrets of the new iWatch, the latest Apple marvel entrusted with the mission of pushing the capitalization of Apple beyond one trillion dollars. According to forecasts, the new "tool" will have three strengths: precision to the millisecond; a heart rhythm reader; the ability to send messages to the owners of other iWatches. It will also be possible to read emails with a glance at the wrist, without using the smartphone.
SPOTLIGHT ON THE BOD OF ENI AND UNICREDIT
Week full of board meetings for the companies of Piazza Affari. Saipem's board meeting will be held tomorrow. Wednesday will be Ubi Banca's turn. Thursday appointment with Enel Green Power, Generali, Snam and with the Unicredit board of directors, who will examine the news in view of the renewal of the top management at the meeting on May 13th. The directors should drop from 19 to 17 with a possible reduction in the number of vice presidents, now four. The female component will rise by virtue of the roda quotas from 4 to 6. On Friday it will be Eni's turn to illustrate the consolidated financial statements and the updated business plan.
GENERALI, THE SUPER COUPON IS NOT EXCLUDED
Spotlights on the Generali board meeting which, during the week, will examine the amount of the dividend to be distributed to shareholders. The expectation of a payout ratio between 50 and 60% is growing in the market, with the distribution of a higher coupon than last year's (0,45 euro). Thanks to the cash flows of the subsidiaries, the reduction of the debt and the strengthening of the equity, the company has a cash base of around 1,5 billion. Able to raise the bar of the edola to 0,58 euros.
RAI WAY, THE CHALLENGE OF THE TOWERS CONTINUES
This morning Ei Towers will deliver to the Antitrust the information required to complete the "seriously incomplete information" on the takeover bid launched on Rai Way. The authority will then have 45 days to evaluate the merits of the offer. Meanwhile, the two stocks adjusted their highs in Piazza Affari on Friday, confirming that the market believes that, despite the Government's no to the sale of the absolute majority, the tower pole remains topical. The Mediaset subsidiary could introduce changes to the offer provided that, as CEO Guido Barbieri said, “the industrial value and financial returns of the project remain unchanged”. The most popular is the “Terna formula”: a company in which the operators' activities converge (with equal shares), independent thanks to the entry of funds and the Cdp into the capital.
