What turn will relations between China and the United States take after the electoral battle? How they celebrate in Beijing the probable defeat of Donald Trump, who dared to challenge the Dragon with duties? “Officially they say nothing. Unlike us Westerners, they don't cheer and don't expose themselves. My impression is that they are better off with Trump than with the commercial liberals of the US left, but it will be, whoever wins the election, a distant relationship. In short, the great season of the global economy is behind us. It is the opinion of Michele Geraci, Full Professor of Economics at the University of Nottingham and Lecturer in Finance at New York University in Shanghai, former author of the memorandum of undestanding between Italy and China ended up in a drawer ("Ask Di Maio and Scalfarotto"). A profound connoisseur of the Chinese reality, who speaks to us from Shanghai, where he is engaged in a series of meetings with the nomenklatura busy broadcasting the messages of the recent party plenum to the suburbs. A first-hand testimony to guide us in a key subject for the coming years.
And yet, Professor, the stock exchanges are celebrating the end of the trade war and the resumption of dialogue.
“Certainly this will not emerge from official positions. The Chinese line is not to intervene in other people's homes, which entitles them to ask others for a similar attitude on what happens in their own home. It's a weapon they want to be able to use against what they believe is us meddling in their business. That said, on the day of the American vote, I had meetings with various think tanks and various government structures. What I gathered is that China would have preferred to continue dealing with Trump. For different reasons. But it is a lively interest, not spasmodic, marginal with respect to the objectives for the next few years”.
A surprise attitude. Why the breakthrough?
“The Chinese are ready for decoupling: tariffs are important but not decisive. Their position is one of waiting: either it is negotiating with the USA and Europe or there are other markets to cultivate. In Asia, Oceania or Africa”.
Why better Trump than Biden?
“They think Biden is more ideological. There are two ways to attack China: either on trade like Trump did or in an ideological way, which is more complicated. Biden's America does not seem capable of peacefully accepting that in China there is a communist party with a very different conception of democracy. Sooner or later, there will be a clash and it will concern ideology. With Trump, on the other hand, the problem is commercial, it concerns tariffs, market space and other matters on which sooner or later people agree. Stop buying American stuff, opening the markets to investments, negotiating technologies. In short, it is about money and not about ideas. And then…".
Say, Professor…
“Everyone pays to create a monster. Xi Jinping attacks Trump as a major polluter. And so he strengthens his leadership by exploiting the image of the protectionist and environmentally harmful enemy. In reality, all of us make use of propaganda, just think of immigration. But this works particularly well in a nationalist country. Xi enjoys being a liberal, he makes trade agreements with Switzerland or Iceland. But he takes care to cultivate anti-US sentiment, which is very popular among students, as I have the opportunity to verify ”.
Meanwhile, the technological challenge grows. Has America been reached?
“No, the US is still in the lead. But they have been surpassed in several sectors: batteries, energy production, electronic payments; 5G has been around for a year but the list is very long, starting with artificial intelligence. Also, there is a big difference from Silicon Valley. Funding depends on the state, as do profits. Money flows to public structures not only to companies: the system makes you money if you share it. This is the difference: technology is good because the economy is good, and not vice versa”.
Is the pandemic over?
“Yes, but not vigilance. Here I swab every 3-4 days. I use the mask constantly and the tracking app works. Today the economy works 100% also thanks to revenge spending”.
That?
“The freezing effect. They lost three months then left again… I told Conte to copy the system. But a stricter lockdown was practically impossible for us. Now I don't know how we'll get out of it."
For a regime it is easier...
“But it is not a communist regime effect. If anything, it is a trait of Confucianism, a sense of patriotism and collaboration. The people trust the government and what it gives them. Also because Xi Jingping promises a doubling of GDP in 15 years. And he is more trusted by Western leaders: it is not the communism of the GDR ”.
Hence the relative lack of interest in the USA.
“America is important, please. But it is not considered essential to achieve growth objectives. Soon they will tell us 'we are going ahead on our own', perhaps together with Japan, but above all thanks to the internal market. In ten years, the contribution of exports to GDP has dropped from 30 to 18 percent. Here he remained at 30. This is why an agreement with China is more important for us than for them”.
